[nightstreak]

The mood of Russian milbloggers has shifted notably this year. Thinking back to the exact moment, I can say that January 11, 2026 was the psychological inflection point for them.

Why that date? It marked day 1,418 of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. And that day count is significant because it took the Red Army 1,418 days to defeat Nazi Germany from the beginning of Nazi invasion of USSR to the fall of Berlin.

There was a mass wave of posts from Russian milbloggers on Jan 11 lamenting this fact.

Now, Russian milbloggets are not your typical armchair quarterbacks and twitter warriors. Majority of them have connections in the frontline units, they travel to the occupied territories, they're involved in fundraising and delivery logistics, etc. They are embedded in the Russian war machine, they are the biggest war hawks, and their mood is a proxy for the overall morale of the Russian Armed Forces.

Since January, their morale has been getting lower and lower. They are openly calling the continuation of the war pointless. They are even starting to hint at blaming Putin himself for the failures in Ukraine (which was almost unheard of prior to 2026). They are up in arms about Russian government's efforts to block Telegram and restrict internet access at home.

One state TV propagandist even came out of the closet to publicly and openly denounce Putin. He was promptly incarcerated at a mental asylum:

Pro-Kremlin blogger turns on Putin, sent to psychiatric care

After seemingly switching sides, a pro-government blogger in Russia who criticized President Vladimir Putin has been admitted to psychiatric care in St. Petersburg. Did he go rogue?

www.dw.com

The time is finally starting to run out for Putin. Sending countless hoards of Russians to their slaughter is a sacrifice that Putin will always be willing to make. But the tides are turning and the soldiers are beginning to ask questions.

The increasingly likely outcome will be a repeat of the Afghanistan quagmire where the Soviet loss cascaded into the end of the USSR. A further ratchet along this path would be the disintegration of the Russian Federation. Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg would align with Europe, Siberia with China, the Caucasus into an Islamic bloc, the interior into a series of independent nations.

I'm not ready to call this inevitable just yet but I believe the fragile glue that keeps the Russian Federation together is becoming brittle and it could snap unexpectedly in a violent and rapid series of events. The no-win scenario for Putin is that either remaining in Ukraine indefinitely or leaving Ukraine a loser would be that inflection point that triggers this.

Putin's only way out is to win the war — and soon — and he missed his chance last year. Trump is growing weaker, Orbán is defeated, Europe is stronger and more united, and Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and Iran are no longer reliable partners. I believe the war will end this year, one way or another.

 

[81-717]

Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg would align with Europe, Siberia with China, the Caucasus into an Islamic bloc, the interior into a series of independent nations.

hbout Moscow?

 

[nightstreak]

Muscovy, that's Russia and likely to remain so, though profoundly changed if the Russian Federation were to collapse, just as the collapse of the USSR left Russia and former Soviet republics changed forever.

 

[Towered]

The increasingly likely outcome will be a repeat of the Afghanistan quagmire where the Soviet loss cascaded into the end of the USSR. A further ratchet along this path would be the disintegration of the Russian Federation. Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg would align with Europe, Siberia with China, the Caucasus into an Islamic bloc, the interior into a series of independent nations.

I'm not ready to call this inevitable just yet but I believe the fragile glue that keeps the Russian Federation together is becoming brittle and it could snap unexpectedly in a violent and rapid series of events. The no-win scenario for Putin is that either remaining in Ukraine indefinitely or leaving Ukraine a loser would be that inflection point that triggers this.

Putin's only way out is to win the war — and soon — and he missed his chance last year. Trump is growing weaker, Orbán is defeated, Europe is stronger and more united, and Syria, Venezuela, Cuba and Iran are no longer reliable partners. I believe the war will end this year, one way or another.

Putin’s only slightly positive way out is to freeze the conflict along the current lines. That way he could sell it as a victory (though obviously pyrrhic given the enormous costs), by permanently annexing the territory Russia now occupies, which is nearly 20% of Ukraine. He’d be able to say they captured the majority of Donbas, and carved out that critical land bridge to Crimea. That’s the absolute best case scenario for Russia, and would be a loss for Ukraine and the West, but it seems he’s delusional enough to believe that they can actually conquer more. That works in Ukraine’s favour since the way things are going, it’s not really in their interest to agree to a ceasefire. They can keep blanketing the orcs with drones until they can’t take it anymore.

 

[nightstreak]

Putin’s only slightly positive way out is to freeze the conflict along the current lines. That way he could sell it as a victory (though obviously pyrrhic given the enormous costs), by permanently annexing the territory Russia now occupies, which is nearly 20% of Ukraine. He’d be able to say they captured the majority of Donbas, and carved out that critical land bridge to Crimea. That’s the absolute best case scenario for Russia, and would be a loss for Ukraine and the West, but it seems he’s delusional enough to believe that they can actually conquer more. That works in Ukraine’s favour since the way things are going, it’s not really in their interest to agree to a ceasefire. They can keep blanketing the orcs with drones until they can’t take it anymore.

Last month, Ukraine took more territory back than Russia gained. They also killed more Russians than were replenished. 6 months of this and the Russians holding positions will be sitting ducks to Ukranian drones.

Meanwhile...

https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/18/europe/russian-influencers-putin-internet-restrictions-intl-cmd

“There’s a feeling that we’re no longer living in a free country,” “How much money do you need to steal so that it’s enough?” she asked, citing “the average MP who owns property worth billions, millions of dollars and holds multiple (foreign) passports.”

The public pushback on the Kremlin come as several recent polls show sagging support for Putin – who has instituted internet crackdowns as he continues his yearslong push against Ukraine at a time of increased economic hardship at home for most Russians, including his supporters.

“It seems that something is shifting,”

Putin is losing the information war back home. Killing Telegram was a counterintuitive move — he thought cutting the information pipeline would save him but instead, he's now he's losing the influencers who sustained his messaging.

Russia got a short reprieve with increased oil prices and pausing sanctions adding to his coffers but that'll snap back as this only accelerates the world's urgency to wean off oil dependence permanently. Russia's economy is teetering and soon Moscow won't be able to pay off the regional Heads and their populations will grow restless. Once this happens, the breaks will start to form slowly then all at once — as soon as one breaks, the dams will break across all of Russia.

In the past, I knew not to bet against a KGB agent; they always have an exit strategy and their patience is their virtue. But the evidence is starting to pile up: Putin failed to take over Ukraine and instead got himself into a years-long quagmire. As a result, he was unable to intervene in Syria and now in Iran and he's watched helplessly as Venezuela, Cuba and now Hungary were taken off his map. With several wrong moves, the chess master is starting to find the board turning against him.