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Northern Light

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Russian cutting all gas exports to 2 NATO countries, Poland and Bulgaria

Threatening to cut off more.
 

DSC

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This report, in Guardian, seems to demonstrate that Putin is delusional. He clearly believes that Russia is not "interfering in Ukraine"!

21m ago14.57
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any countries attempting to interfere in Ukraine would be faced with a swift response from Russia and said all decisions on how Moscow would react in that situation have already been taken.

Addressing lawmakers in St Petersburg, Putin said the West wanted to cut Russia up into different pieces and accused it of pushing Ukraine into conflict with Russia.
 

Towered

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This report, in Guardian, seems to demonstrate that Putin is delusional. He clearly believes that Russia is not "interfering in Ukraine"!

21m ago14.57
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any countries attempting to interfere in Ukraine would be faced with a swift response from Russia and said all decisions on how Moscow would react in that situation have already been taken.

Addressing lawmakers in St Petersburg, Putin said the West wanted to cut Russia up into different pieces and accused it of pushing Ukraine into conflict with Russia.

LOL at the mountainous hypocrisy of him warning other countries not to "interfere" in Ukraine - what does he think Russia is doing there then?

Keep the weapons flowing in. There's even talk of supplying Ukraine with warplanes now, which was completely taboo only a month ago. The more this outrage drags on, the clearer it becomes that the West cannot allow anything resembling a Russian/Putin victory. This should have happened 80 years ago.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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This report, in Guardian, seems to demonstrate that Putin is delusional. He clearly believes that Russia is not "interfering in Ukraine"!

21m ago14.57
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that any countries attempting to interfere in Ukraine would be faced with a swift response from Russia and said all decisions on how Moscow would react in that situation have already been taken.

Addressing lawmakers in St Petersburg, Putin said the West wanted to cut Russia up into different pieces and accused it of pushing Ukraine into conflict with Russia.

Attempting to? Sorry Putin hon, have you been watching? You've been cut to pieces by - among other things, the weapons you made that we gave to Ukraine - and if you keep on interfering, we will cut you some more. Think of it as our own little "special operations".

This is so pathetic - they're the ones who crossed over the border in the first place, and now they that got hurt, they are crying momma.

AoD
 

kEiThZ

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Russian cutting all gas exports to 2 NATO countries, Poland and Bulgaria

Threatening to cut off more.

LOL. Right as Poland and Bulgaria get their alternative sources up. Bulgaria is finishing a pipeline to Greece and Turkey this summer and have already said they won't be renewing Gazprom contract.

"You can't dump me. I'm dumping you!"

I hope the Bulgarians grow a pair and tell the Russians they won't allow transit of Russian gas through Bulgaria to Putin stooge states Serbia and Hungary.
 

Bjays92

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Attempting to? Sorry Putin hon, have you been watching? You've been cut to pieces by - among other things, the weapons you made that we gave to Ukraine - and if you keep on interfering, we will cut you some more. Think of it as our own little "special operations".

This is so pathetic - they're the ones who crossed over the border in the first place, and now they that got hurt, they are crying momma.

AoD
I genuinely think Putin is living in his own fantasy land, which frankly is more scary than him just being an unhinged dictator because it means the choices he's making make sense to him, but no one else because he's completely detatched from reality.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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I genuinely think Putin is living in his own fantasy land, which frankly is more scary than him just being an unhinged dictator because it means the choices he's making make sense to him, but no one else because he's completely detatched from reality.

If he is truly unhinged he would have gone apeshit nuclear right off the start - not playing it safe again and again (the numerical overkill, the deliberate choice of decapitation over long war, etc). And if your goal is to compel a certain behaviour from another party, you don't make threats over, and over, and over again - each time you do it the less likely you will get the desired outcome.

AoD
 

Bjays92

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If he is truly unhinged he would have gone apeshit nuclear right off the start - not playing it safe again and again (the numerical overkill, the deliberate choice of decapitation over long war, etc). And if your goal is to compel a certain behaviour from another party, you don't make threats over, and over, and over again - each time you do it the less likely you will get the desired outcome.

AoD
I'm specifically saying he's not unhinged, not in the traditional sense that he's lost it and is irrational. I'm saying his reality is completely divorced from actual reality, but in his reality he's being rational, if not restrained. That's why he hasn't gone total overkill, because he genuinely believed Russia would be welcomed in Ukraine, he doesn't truly grasp the level at which his army is failing, he doesn't truly see this as a war (yet) and so on.

That's the only framework under which anything he's saying even remotely makes sense.
 

kEiThZ

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We're reaching the point where the only threat that Russia has left is nuclear. And nuclear weapons alone do not a great power make. Or North Korea and Pakistan would be considered great powers. Their threat to self-immolate through energy export bans is actually more potent than their conventional military threat. And even that has a limited shelf life thanks to urgent efforts to reduce dependency on Russian O&G.

So now they have a problem. They can't win this without a massive escalation with substantial loss of life and almost guaranteeing that the economic warfare will be sustained long after the kinetic war has ended. And any victory they do get will have gains so minimal that people at home will eventually ask if it was worthwhile, but the West will consider to be an expensive cautionary tale on military readiness and economic dependency on a hostile power.

Putin is screwed. We'll just have to keep going till he comes to terms with it.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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We're reaching the point where the only threat that Russia has left is nuclear. And nuclear weapons alone do not a great power make. Or North Korea and Pakistan would be considered great powers. Their threat to self-immolate through energy export bans is actually more potent than their conventional military threat. And even that has a limited shelf life thanks to urgent efforts to reduce dependency on Russian O&G.

So now they have a problem. They can't win this without a massive escalation with substantial loss of life and almost guaranteeing that the economic warfare will be sustained long after the kinetic war has ended. And any victory they do get will have gains so minimal that people at home will eventually ask if it was worthwhile, but the West will consider to be an expensive cautionary tale on military readiness and economic dependency on a hostile power.

Putin is screwed. We'll just have to keep going till he comes to terms with it.

This whole thing kind of reminds me of Asimov's Foundation - particularly the chapter on the "war" between Foundation and Korellian Republic.

AoD
 

kEiThZ

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I'm specifically saying he's not unhinged, not in the traditional sense that he's lost it and is irrational. I'm saying his reality is completely divorced from actual reality, but in his reality he's being rational, if not restrained. That's why he hasn't gone total overkill, because he genuinely believed Russia would be welcomed in Ukraine, he doesn't truly grasp the level at which his army is failing, he doesn't truly see this as a war (yet) and so on.

That's the only framework under which anything he's saying even remotely makes sense.

He knows it's not going well. He just doesn't have any good options. Folks who keep arguing that he can mobilize forget the damage that would do to their economy, and the risk of logistical failure to a force already struggling to sustain itself.

You also forget marishkova. They are obsessed with showing strength. And to some extent actually admitting to the reality on the ground would be an admission of weakness. So it won't happen.
 

Bjays92

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He knows it's not going well. He just doesn't have any good options. Folks who keep arguing that he can mobilize forget the damage that would do to their economy, and the risk of logistical failure to a force already struggling to sustain itself.

You also forget marishkova. They are obsessed with showing strength. And to some extent actually admitting to the reality on the ground would be an admission of weakness. So it won't happen.
Absolutely he knows it's not going as well as he would've hoped but I also don't think he realizes just how poorly his army is truly performing.
 

kEiThZ

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Absolutely he knows it's not going as well as he would've hoped but I also don't think he realizes just how poorly his army is truly performing.

He knows. He can look at the map just like the rest of us. Sure, his generals will give him some bullshit on how it's going to turn around in a few days. But as deadlines come and go, and the goals get more and more minimalist, he will know it's not going well and the cost of achieving these goals is higher, making the value worse.
 

AlvinofDiaspar

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You also forget marishkova. They are obsessed with showing strength. And to some extent actually admitting to the reality on the ground would be an admission of weakness. So it won't happen.

Hence Moskva having "an explosion" and sunk under tow, instead of admitting that their adversary shaved their eyebrow and sent the pride of their fleet to the bottom of the Black Sea (with one casualty, ha ha ha). And you can also bet that everyone is taking notes on the rhetoric vs. actuality (least of all, Washington and Beijing, not that I would imagine they are the slightest bit surprised).

AoD
 
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