nfitz
Superstar
I doubt 3 hours to Montreal would kill Porter. It would also be almost HSR. I can't seeing anyone dropping the $50 to $100 billion necessary to achieve that.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I don't doubt it would. Right now with airport access, pre-boarding and the trip from Dorval to downtown, it's at least 2.5 hrs. Closer to 3 hrs. Rail service that does the same for a fraction of the cost would divert enough passengers to do serious damage to Porter on that sector.
If HFR is approved, we'll see this with Toronto-Ottawa. HFR is rumoured at 3:15 hrs on that sector. So 3.5 hrs from downtown-to-downtown with HFR and O-Train. Vs 2.5 hrs by air. How many employers are going to pay airfare to save 1 hr, especially if the trip isn't same day return? And that's before the carbon tax ramps up and makes aviation even more expensive.
It would actually be the low end of HSR.
HFR is 3:15 hrs to Ottawa and 4:45 hrs to Montreal.
The last estimate for Toronto-Ottawa-Montreal was $9-11B in the Ecotrain Study. Even if costs doubled due to inflation, it wouldn't be nearly as expensive as you suggest.
Also VIA's HFR, does offer a path to development. Spend a few hundred million every year, doing a bit of straightening and grade separation. And eventually, you end up with a system that has long enough stretches of low end HSR speed (125 mph / 200 kph).
kEiThZ
Superstar
The case to dump YTZ without High Speed Rail is rather poor though. We need to do a lot of work to negate the advantages of that airport. High Speed Rail and Pearson Transit Hub are a starting requirement.
BermudaTO37
Active Member
Respectfully I disagree. If this is the case, you can rest assured, the second tower of CIBC Square would not be proceeding and the brand spanking new tower for TD would not be moving forward.
Certainly there are some positions that will no longer be needed specifically IT but there are issues emerging with people working longer hours and others abusing the system.
i dont think this is as cut and dry because the main point of mass transit is to move people to their workplaces. If this is no longer required, there is no need for the type of investments ongoing. Fundamentally, society as we know it will have to make a drastic change which means some Industries will be drastically reduced or wiped out.
Andy_in_Toronto
Active Member
My provided outlook is on a 10 year outlook and based on research of Chris Herd. He says those corporations who don’t have a remote first policy will disappear. Also, public transit shifted from commuting services to general mode of transportation some time ago.
Interesting read:
Based on those bullets there is no business case for Porter and City Airport anymore. Gone within the next 5 years. Accepting bets on this!
Interesting read:
- The cost saving in real-estate at scale will be eye-watering. The productivity gains will be the final nail in the coffin for the office.
- Death of HQ: the office is dead but offices will persist. They’ll be used less frequently then hardly at all
- Co-working, subscription clubs, will emerge that let workers who prefer that mode of work to operate from there.
- Meeting Death: wasting 2 hours travelling to a meeting will end. The benefits of in-person are eroded by the benefits you get of not travelling
- Conferences and quarterly networking events will becomes more important for cultivating in-person relationships
Based on those bullets there is no business case for Porter and City Airport anymore. Gone within the next 5 years. Accepting bets on this!
Things will change. That's what a good crisis will do for you. We talk about return to "normal", but really we are forging that "new normal" that gets talked about. It what humans do, we adapt (and complain about it). Some things will suffer, some will thrive.
I don't hold out a lot of hope for Porter simply because they've been shut down so long, and I'm not sure they can recover. I don't think the airport will go away though as it existed pre-Porter, albeit it wasn't nearly as busy. Will Air Canada still use it? Will it expand its operations? Will the tunnel become some kind of weird tourist attraction?
I don't hold out a lot of hope for Porter simply because they've been shut down so long, and I'm not sure they can recover. I don't think the airport will go away though as it existed pre-Porter, albeit it wasn't nearly as busy. Will Air Canada still use it? Will it expand its operations? Will the tunnel become some kind of weird tourist attraction?
afransen
Senior Member
Good riddance to the airport. It is sitting on prime land, and it does not add much value. The main benefit to it being there presently is that it stops us from filling that space with condos until we have a good concept of what to do with that space. The real shame is that it kept the Portlands from realizing its full potential due to height limits.
gabe
Senior Member
I got a virtual conference at the end of the month in Ottawa. All i have to do is travel to the basement. I always hated flying during the winter, especially with the island airport 's weather restrictions and flight delays. One of the last times i flew Porter, it was a sunny clear day, but the flight was delayed because of high winds. Ah the joys of business travel. I don’t miss it one bit.
afransen
Senior Member
I don't travel that much for work, but in that time I have experienced a handful of times sitting on the plane at or near the gate for hours (once was 4 hours for a 45 minute flight) due to mechanical issues, and one emergency landing (going to Ottawa).
Woodbridge_Heights
Senior Member
I am curious to see what happens in the CBD following Covid. I don't think there will be a hollowing out but we will see a reduction in square footage used per company. And likely there will be more location sharing, be it in the form of remote offices where employees from multiple companies but in the same geographic region share a facility or one facility serving multiple companies (company x on monday, y on tuesday, z on wednesday, etc)
In fact this may be an emergent market that one could leverage and take advantage of.
In fact this may be an emergent market that one could leverage and take advantage of.
nfitz
Superstar
There's be some modal shift, sure. But how many airlines still fly from Marseille to Paris, despite the 3-hour train journey?
Gosh, is HFR really that slow? Pretty sad compared to the under-4 hour travel time to Montreal that VIA used to run. And that didn't kill air travel.
afransen
Senior Member
WeWork collapsed too early?
My employer keeps saying they believe culture is important and that we need to spend at least some time in the office to maintain and build, particularly as we hire new people. I mostly agree.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I think a guy who sells consultancy on remote working might just have an incentive to sell it as the future...
Those bullets don't lend themselves to the end of Porter. How do you think all these business travelers will get to those quarterly conferences?
It's entirely possible that working in office ramps down, while shorter trips become more frequent.
Northern Light
Superstar
Ahem...........the research of Chris Heard has a just a wee conflict of interest..................
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His day job is serving remote work.
Ergo, his second job is promoting the idea.
While anything is possible; his world view is exceedingly unlikely to unfold in my opinion.
Will there be a modest increase in flex/remote work; sure.
That was underway before; and the pandemic will see some expansion of that at workplaces already pursuing it; and introduce it to a few laggards.
But I just don't see this wholesale shift.
On an anecdotal level; humans are social creatures; not to mention we just need to get out of the house. You need the damned exercise of a walk to the bus stop; or to work, or at least to the driver's seat!
But besides that, I can tell you more tower announcements (go-aheads) are a near certainty for Toronto in the months ahead.
The big banks will not be running their call centres or their C-Suites from Port Carling or Stratford.
****
I do hope you're right on the airport though; as I love the idea of 200acres of new parkland, directly connected to the foot of Bathurst Street!
kEiThZ
Superstar
Not that many actually. And even fewer coming up. You should look up the conditions that the French government imposed on Air France as part of their bailout. Part of it is a drastic reduction in domestic flights and a substantial increase in air-rail integration.
Nobody is saying HFR will kill travel. It's clearly not fast enough. But it should put a substantial dent on some sectors like Toronto-Ottawa and Montreal-Quebec City.
HFR is a good foundation on which to build HSR on though.