[EnviroTO]

The difference is that there are a number of cities that are just as good as Pittsburgh as a hub. There aren't many places that you can fly to from Pittsburgh that you can't fly to from Cleveland, Philadelphia, Detroit, etc. (speaking about aircraft range, not currently available airline service). The alternatives to Thunder Bay are much fewer (and much smaller) -- Ottawa is closer to eastern cities but could put several western cities out of range(depending on the aircraft), while you can't get to Winnipeg with a Q400.

You don't need to fly on a Q400 if you leave from Pearson. Creating a hub in Thunder Bay simply for the convenience of leaving from Toronto Island on a Q400 makes no sense because a stop over is not convenient and from other airports you can fly aircraft that fly further.

You could increase the number of Toronto passengers by increasing the number of flights to Thunder Bay. You would also be able to add in passengers from the east (Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax) heading to the west (Saskatoon, Edmonton, etc.) and the reverse (passengers that never come near Toronto).

You can't realistically add enough flights from Toronto Island into this hub to handle any substantial portion of the markets from Toronto served by that hub. Westjet has more than 900 seats non-stop Toronto-Calgary, 500 seats non-stop to Winnipeg, 100 seats non-stop Toronto-Regina, 100 seats non-stop Toronto-Saskatoon, 500 seats Toronto-Edmonton, and 600 seats Toronto-Vancouver. If all those seats went to a hub on a Q400 you would need 38 flights per day to the hub on a Q400 and any additional flights out of that hub to LA, San Fran, etc would require even more frequencies. If there was actually a hub in Thunder Bay it would make far more sense to have only 3 or 4 banks and have a widebody fly to it from Pearson 3 or 4 times a day... because that is the capacity Westjet currently carries westward. A hub in Thunder Bay reached by a Q400 will amount to an insignificant market share.

That would mean that five sixths of Canada's population does not live in the GTA.

Yes, but Porter should serve at least one city well with this hub and Thunder Bay isn't that important.

Does this apply to both US-based airlines and Canadian-based airlines? I thought it was only US airlines that couldn't route through the US. Canadian airlines generally would not want to since it would mean pushing your passengers through immigration/customs twice when they wouldn't normally have had to go through it at all.

It applies to both.

 

[kEiThZ]

This discussion is projecting too far into the future. Like I said in post #1575. Look to Jazz to see where Porter is going to go. Porter is basically inverting Jazz's hub-focus city model and turning Jazz's focus cities into hubs. That's why Ottawa is slowly being made into a hub. Halifax is probably next in the line-up.

Servicing the West is out of the question for now. As EnviroTO pointed out, you can't do it without operating at Pearson. That said, I see no reason why Thunder Bay would not make sense for East-West traffic that's from or bound for Toronto normally. And if that's the target market, it doesn't even have to be Thunder Bay. The hub could be in Winnipeg and Thunder Bay would just be a stop on the Toronto-Winnipeg run.

And realistically, no airline is going to really want to run a turbo-prop for anything more than 2 hours. It starts getting uncomfortable and slow. I think it's far more realistic to see Porter deploy CSeries aircraft to run between hubs than see a Q400 run from Toronto to Winnipeg (which could happen if they were operating from Pearson). Anything longer than 500 nm, and you really start to notice the difference in speed. At that distance, just based on nominal cruise speed the difference between the CSeries and a Q400 is 16 mins. In reality, it's a little less since the Q400 hits its cruise altitude a lot sooner and a smaller aircraft can usually be turned around faster on the ground. Anyway the difference is sufficiently minimal that it doesn't affect block times. But over 500nm, the divergence in trip times startings becoming substantial. Goes up at around 3.3 minutes per 100 nm. On a distance like Toronto-Winnipeg (850nm at least on most routings), the difference is at least 25 minutes. That's sufficient to impact block times and aircraft utilization rates.

So until they figure out how to get around all that, I don't see any expansion to the West beyond Winnipeg (possible to see a YTZ-YQT-YWG and YOW-YQT-YWG service). But for now, there's still plenty of work to do out in the East.

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't think Winnipeg is would ever be feasible from Toronto unless it's going to go with their Thunder Bay route, but it would take too long (the Q400s are slower and the stop woudl take too long). The same goes for the Ottawa-Winnipeg route: Although it can make it, it woudl take much longer than anyone flying in a Jet, so wouldn't be worthwhile. The Q400s are best suited to small hops.

Much longer is debatable. We are talking a 29 minute difference on an a YOW-YWG run. I would suggest that most passengers would have no issues with an extra half hour on the plane if the fare difference was attract and the service was acceptable. With Porter's lounges and in-flight service being what it is, I doubt anybody, but the most discerning of travelers, would have an issue with a longer trip.

However, whether it's profitable for Porter is another question altogether. That half hour difference is a huge hit on block times. It will impact aircraft utilization rates and therefore costs. For every 5 Winnipeg-Ottawa trips a jet does, a Q400 will be doing 4. This means that Porter would have to deploy additional aircraft on the route to maintain a frequent schedule or use jets for the long trips.

They do fly more than 500 miles regularly. Myrtle Beach is 700 miles and Halifax (they fly direct at times) is nearly 800. I think they're restricting the seats though.

Operations from the Island aren't range-payload restricted in the strictest sense. They are restricted by a lower balanced field length which in turn reduces range-payload. Q400s could in theory operate from Halifax to Winnipeg with some small payload restrictions.

With their hub at a non-jet location such as YTZ, I doubt they'd invest in any jets in the near future. It was probably just something that was said to detract attention. Instead, I suspect they'll wait until they have a second hub (possibly in Ottawa with their lounge and new routes from there), and then consider the possibility of become a national player.

Who said they'd fly jets out of YTZ? Aside from the obvious fact that they can't, why would they want to? They'd lose all the benefits of operating turboprops if they did.

What they will do is fairly obvious. They'll have their new hub in Ottawa and probably shortly thereafter another one in Halifax. And then we'll probably start seeing inductions of CSeries jets for trips between the non-YTZ hubs and anything longer than 2 hrs.

 

[kEiThZ]

Air Canada is getting Q400s so it will be able to offer a lower price point in the same aircraft by not having a Porter lounge and greater loyalty through Aeroplan and Star Alliance. In Ottawa price will matter more because there are more Aeroplan members than those who find Porter more convenient. It is convenience at Toronto Island that has allowed Porter to exist.

While other airlines are trying to get into the airport, I suspect they'll do everything they can to max out their capacity of the airport, which they'll need more turbosprops for (their original aircraft order is nearly filled I think). AC must be a huge risk to Porter with their Aeroplan and business customers that are contracted to use them.

Aeroplan is only a big deal to frequent fliers. It's just not that important to occassional fliers or even most business travelers (who routinely use travel agents these days instead of having contracts with specific airlines) who won't fly regularly enough to get free flights regularly. For these fliers, price is the issue. And as I pointed out before, AC is in a huge bind here. Unless they manage to get all 90 slots up on offer and deploy them largely for the TOM triangle, they'll be severely slot restricted at YTZ, which means that even if they undercut Porter, there's a limit to the amount of damage they can do.

And there's no guarantee they can undercut Porter all that much either. Apparently, there's no segregation of passengers at YTZ. So Jazz passengers at YTZ will be able to use the lounge and Porter will undoubtedly be charging AC for the privilege. Add to that the fact that Deluce's other arm will be servicing all aircraft operating to YTZ and there really isnt much room for AC to cut prices unless they absolutely engage in totally predatory pricing...and it's questionable if they have the cash to do that these days.

But going back to those loyal flyer banking up the aeroplan points. In the TOM triangle, most of them are routine TOM flyers. So they actually don't collect too many aeroplan points outside of their routine TOM runs. So if Porter offers an attractive loyalty program that gets them free flights as often as AC, you can bet they'll switch. Keep in mind that one big plus for these frequent fliers is Porter's service. They are guaranteed virtually J class service every time for Y class prices. On AC, they are stuck with a no-frills Jazz flight or economy routing or exorbitant pricing to get J class service. So the value of aeroplan is questionable for frequent fliers who largely operated in the TOM triangle. And that's exactly why you are even starting to see even some AC Elite members migrate to Porter. Certainly, I see no huge rewards for Basic or Prestige or even some Elite members, for staying with AC.

And incidentally, Porter is starting to prove quite popular in Ottawa, particularly with the public service, who would otherwise be relegated to flying Economy on AC. They are essentially getting a free upgrade by flying Porter.

 

[dsantesteban]

Airlines are not allowed to sell CAN-USA-CAN flights nor USA-CAN-USA.

Technically, they could. They just have to sell you two separate flights. Porter could feasably make a Chicago hub and just sell a Vancouver to Toronto ticket by doing one flight from Vancouver to Chicago and another from Chicago to Toronto. What they can't do is sell one flight that goes Vancouver to Toronto with a stopover in Chicago. They're even allowed to sell it as one itinerary, as long as it's two completely unique flights.

DISCLOSURE: I haven't actually read this anywhere in law, but I've done this once on a Toronto - Calgary flight (stopped in Detroit), and I was offered this once on a flight from Toronto to Halifax via Boston (Porter, US Airways), and another time on a Fort Lauderdale to Detroit flight, with Star Alliance (United then Air Canada).

Prior to this CAN airlines could not sell CAN-USA-INTL and USA airlines could not sell USA-CAN-INTL.

I think Canadian used to run a flight from Toronto to Buenos Aires that stopped in Newark, but I might be wrong. And Pan Am definitely did.

A workaround that wasn't so unheard of, especially when a Canadian airline wanted to open to a northern American market, was running USA-CAN-INTL. For example, a flight from Vancouver - Seattle - London could be worked around as Seattle - Vancouver - London.

I could see Porter trying to set up in the Calgary-Vancouver-Edmonton triangle

The problem is that they'll have those issues that MegaBus is having. MegaBus is an extremely inexpensive bus company that ran three completely separate networks. The Los Angeles one went bankrupt, and the Chicago one isn't doing well, mostly because the company has no cross-country routes. The closest that their two networks come to each other is between Detroit and Toronto.

Hamilton and Thunder Bay are awful hubs because that isn't where people want to go

The other much bigger problem is that they're really useless hubs. Too close to Toronto. I think Porter should go for something on the outer limits of the Q400's range without payload limits. Regina might be pushing it but Winnipeg sure isn't. I think a hub in Chicago that I mentioned before might be really useful for American expansion, but just not good for travel from Canada to Canada because of having to go through Customs twice.

 

[dsantesteban]

Aeroplan is only a big deal to frequent fliers. It's just not that important to occassional fliers or even most business travelers who won't fly regularly enough to get free flights regularly.

Aeroplan worked for occasional flyers before, because (using myself as an example), with three flights to Argentina, I got a free flight to New York (I had to pay for the rest of my trip though). And I got to fly first class on my way there. ADD Moment here, I don't get why these snobby pricks pay thousands of dollars for it. If you need all that legroom, go bulkhead, and if you need such a massive seat, just buy two economy class seats for a lot less. My dad is also getting an amazing deal with that Aeroplan credit card. It actually pays out insane rewards; I think you can earn 1 mile for every five dollars you spend, or about 3% - 15% of what you spent, depending on where you fly and what class.

 

[sjc]

Aeroplan worked for occasional flyers before, because (using myself as an example), with three flights to Argentina, I got a free flight to New York (I had to pay for the rest of my trip though).

You get a good number of Aeroplan points for a flight to Argentina. It takes a lot of Toronto-Ottawa trips to get any significant number of points. The other thing is that, these days, a flight to New York doesn't really cost that much to just buy it with money, considering how many points it takes to get a "free" one.

People that fly to Porter destinations aren't really giving up very many aeroplan points and their Elite status won't be depending on those flights.

 

[kEiThZ]

You get a good number of Aeroplan points for a flight to Argentina. It takes a lot of Toronto-Ottawa trips to get any significant number of points. The other thing is that, these days, a flight to New York doesn't really cost that much to just buy it with money, considering how many points it takes to get a "free" one.

People that fly to Porter destinations aren't really giving up very many aeroplan points and their Elite status won't be depending on those flights.

Bingo.

Everybody thinks Aeroplan is AC's killer app. But that's only true in very limited circumstances. For regular long haul fliers, Aeroplan is great. A couple of long haul trips and you score yourself a nice regional vacation. However, if all your flying is short-haul it's pretty tough to get there.

Aeroplan requires at least 25 flights for the Prestige level and usually you aren't taking Tango fares if you want to rack up the miles. Yet for all that effort, you're still flying economy and you rack up about 6-8 upgrade certificates, some bonus miles and guest lounge access (you don't even get that for yourself regularly). And of course, if you are flying 25 TOM flights, you are probably only going to score a couple of free flights per year, which won't count towards your status. Aeroplan/AC Elite is really the level that's worth attaining. That's where you get free lounges all the time, more regular upgrades, etc. And yet you are probably still flying cattle class on a regular basis (but at least they give you coupons which let you get free food).

With Porter, you are always getting lounge access (a big plus for frequent fliers), and near executive cabin service (with food and alcohol and better legroom) and a much better defined scheduled for earning points and getting reward flights. No worrying about accumulating status flights or a huge number of miles (try getting 25 000 status miles on only short-haul trips). No worries about upgrades since the service you are getting is always good. So really Porter's VIPorter program combined with their regular service is on par with benefits you get at the Air Canada/Aeroplan Elite level with regular travel on AC Executive class for short-haul.

There's no doubt that AC/Aeroplan status tiers are worthwhile if you are regularly flying out of Pearson and doing medium and long haul flights with AC. And it's definitely worthwhile, compared to say Westjet for example. But if you are flying once a month or more in the TOM triangle and find the Island more convenient, then Porter beats the pants off AC, inspite of all the Aeroplan points and status they give you.

 

[PinkLucy]

I totally agree. If I'm going to Ottawa and don't want to drive, I don't even give my Aeroplan points a thought. It's Porter all the way.

 

[kEiThZ]

If you are flying on Tango fares, Aeroplan is about as utterly useless as you can get. They give you 25% non-status aeroplan miles on a Tango fare. So those miles don't count towards getting you status and they give you so little that they are almost irrelevant. To get any sort of decent mileage you have to fly Tango Plus. That's usually $60-$100 more per segment. And that's just to get seat selection (usually costs $15), 100% status miles and a lower same day change fee ($50 instead of $150). Hardly worthwhile.

If you are occassional traveler, or a regular on AC Tango fares, you are better off with Porter.

 

[sjc]

...Tango Plus. That's usually $60-$100 more per segment. And that's just to get seat selection (usually costs $15), 100% status miles and a lower same day change fee ($50 instead of $150). Hardly worthwhile.

I will purchase Tango Plus tickets (or Porter Flexible tickets) only when the price is relatively close to the cheaper fare and I know I am almost certainly going to change the flight time on my return in the afternoon.

However, if it is going to cost me $100+ to potentially save a $100 change fee, I usually just go for the cheaper fare and eat the change fee as necessary (when I get out my meetings early). Or more often, I just head to the airport early and sit in the Porter lounge for a long time to wait for my original flight.

I note that Air Canada, for Rapidair flights, now has free same-day standby on earlier flights for Tango Plus and $75 for a confirmed switch to an earlier same-day flight for Tango/Tango Plus.
http://www.aircanada.com/en/travelinfo/airport/rapidair.html .

 

[sjc]

However, whether it's profitable for Porter is another question altogether. That half hour difference is a huge hit on block times. It will impact aircraft utilization rates and therefore costs. For every 5 Winnipeg-Ottawa trips a jet does, a Q400 will be doing 4. This means that Porter would have to deploy additional aircraft on the route to maintain a frequent schedule or use jets for the long trips.

Does anyone know how quickly Westjet and Air Canada can get in and out of an airport with their jets? I've noticed that Porter does a pretty good job of keeping the Ottawa stop to about a half-hour. I've seen quite a few jets take longer than that (because they have more people to get in and out and more plane to clean?).

 

[dsantesteban]

For regular long haul fliers, Aeroplan is great. A couple of long haul trips and you score yourself a nice regional vacation. However, if all your flying is short-haul it's pretty tough to get there.

There's a really simple reason for this, which is that there are no fare classes in long haul, so everybody gets the Latitude Plus miles at Tango Plus prices. On the other hand, if you fly Tango on short haul (even Tango Plus), you get no miles.

By far though, as I've said, the best deal is the Aeroplan VISA card. My family goes on vacation once or twice a year, and my dad never pays. We also used a bunch of his miles to supplement my existing miles and my sister's existing miles from a couple of other long haul trips.

Another good deal is just getting an Aeroplan membership. You get some savings by waiving the miles if you have a membership, regardless of whether or not you ever use it.

 

[Darwinkgo]

Does anyone know how quickly Westjet and Air Canada can get in and out of an airport with their jets? I've noticed that Porter does a pretty good job of keeping the Ottawa stop to about a half-hour. I've seen quite a few jets take longer than that (because they have more people to get in and out and more plane to clean?).

For short hall, Wesjet once boasted it could turn around the Calgary- Edmonton flight at the Calgary end in less than 15 minutes. Of course, wouldn't need to refuel or restock with food/drink every time.

 

[rbt]

Another good deal is just getting an Aeroplan membership. You get some savings by waiving the miles if you have a membership, regardless of whether or not you ever use it.

I miss the $100 (taxes, airport fees, etc included in this) Toronto <-> Ottawa round trips when Porter first launched; accomplished by skipping points, baggage, etc.