UrbanWarrior said:
A highrise... engorgement 😈

🤣😂🤣🤣 But yeah I am thrilled to say the least. I even wrote an article for Skyrise about it. But the owners don't want the Calgary section doing articles anymore for some reason, not since covid.

Anyways, more pics!

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Here’s to all future engorgements in Calgary!
 
Are we at all worried about the shifting macro economics leaving any of these projects stalled? If the Canadian Dollar takes a nose dive after the inauguration, could that cause a sudden jolt to the economics of these projects or is what's UC now going to be able to get built but the next wave won't come?
 
Garceyues said:
I'm in awe at how many projects Truman has going on currently.
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No kidding. Especially considering that they may be starting Lincoln soon, which is their largest project ever by a significant margin.
 
Purchase agreements heavily favour developers. It's near impossible to get out of one and Truman won't hesitate to sue anyone that walks away. The feds have stepped up on mortgage securities during these inflationary times too. Truman would have to go under. Even so, that Toronto supertall in receivership is still under construction years behind schedule and hundreds of millions in cost overruns. Closing those purchase agreements is a better deal than walking away.

So far the investors that have abandoned Toronto's condo market are still investing in real estate in Canada including the outskirts of the GTA. It's been a positive for everyone else in 2024.
 
CalgaryTiger said:
Are we at all worried about the shifting macro economics leaving any of these projects stalled? If the Canadian Dollar takes a nose dive after the inauguration, could that cause a sudden jolt to the economics of these projects or is what's UC now going to be able to get built but the next wave won't come?
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I wonder about the relative importance of having a strong CAD to ensure importing building materials isn't prohibitively expensive in comparison to having decreased borrowing costs as interest rates come down. For now at least, the CAD may weaken with the latest rate cut even though the cost of borrowing will improve.

One thing is for sure though, any tariffs will be devastating all around.
 
The biggest thing that will stall out new multifamily construction starts is the new immigration policy and targets not a weaker CAD. The plan is to stagnate Canadas population so there will be next to no new international immigration into the city which is a big driver into absorbing rental supply. There has been record multifamily starts in the past couple of years that will be completing into a market with fewer people to occupying them pushing vacancy up and rents down. Rents are already softening and construction starts will start to fall now
 
Stagnate Canada's population is a little hyperbolic. The record number of people arriving into Canada over the course of the last ten years (small break during the pandemic) hasn't benefited the majority of Canadians including new Canadians. The course we are currently on is building a record number of tall towers across the nation. The overpriced, undersized units built to target temp visas is , for example, adding to the record dissatisfaction of new immigrants to Canada or like our deteriorating global standing in GDP per capita. This correction will effect new starts. However, it's a necessary step for the longer term if we want contributing talent to continue to immigrate to Canada.

Calgary hasn't been a part of the supersizing of Canadian skylines. It wouldn't take long to catch up with suburban grey spandrel tower groups everywhere and the realisation that this is an inferior form of living. Downtown has the all the amenities to make up the difference. Tract towers around a suburban transit station does not.
 
Not hyperbolic. "The Government projects that the Canadian population will decline by 0.2 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, before returning to population growth of 0.8 per cent in 2027". This is great for renters across the country and needed in most markets to increase affordability. I suspect net provincial migration will also trend lower because the economy is softening across the country and rents are coming down everywhere so people won't be as motivated to move to Calgary. I wouldn't be surprised to see rents drop 20% in Calgary over the next couple of years and multifamily starts to drop 40+%.
 
/\I'd suggest that these predictions don't take in a number of unknowns, such as:
-The Feds are going on the assumption that all of these TFW's and other non-permanent residents will all just willingly pack up and go home, which increasingly seems unlikely;
-If large numbers of non permanent residents don't pack up and go home, will we have the resources to find them? It's not like Canada has the resources the Americans do with ICE;
-The possibility of refugee claimants coming to Canada as the incoming US administration makes it harder for refugee claims there;
-The outcome of the Syrian coup might be more refugee claimants from that country.

So, not to throw shade on these federal predictions but I am more worried about the effects of Trump's tariffs, Guilbeault's net zero policies, whether Canada enters into a full blown recession, and the overall global oil market when it comes to Calgary's overall economy, which could impact both rental and multi markets. I am sure there will be a drop, but there's just so much going on right now beyond federal immigration numbers.

Anyhow, there's a great "statscan" thread in General Discussions that has been touching on this topic a fair bit in recent weeks :)
 
I think inter-provincial migration will continue into Alberta, Ontario does not have affordable places for a lot of homebuyers, it will take more than immigration numbers to change that.

Sure, rents are dropping or at least not climbing like they were, but they were still well above what a lot of people could afford. So, if rents do come down or stay flat that is a positive for the downstream affects of people in the rental market. Keeping in mind I still think there's no GST on rental construction. The city released their housing update this week and they're still not keeping up.

There is also decent hiring happening in Alberta, not enough to keep a steady unemployment rate, but we're still able to absorb a fall in people moving here because of the hiring.

Thinking about it, I don't see this or other projects stalling, the floor shouldn't fall out that quick. Unless something dramatic happens with tariffs and our subsequent retaliation. I saw Ford floating cutting the US off Canadian energy exports, if things get to that level we're capital F, Fricked!
 
heritageguy said:
Not hyperbolic. "The Government projects that the Canadian population will decline by 0.2 per cent in both 2025 and 2026, before returning to population growth of 0.8 per cent in 2027". This is great for renters across the country and needed in most markets to increase affordability. I suspect net provincial migration will also trend lower because the economy is softening across the country and rents are coming down everywhere so people won't be as motivated to move to Calgary. I wouldn't be surprised to see rents drop 20% in Calgary over the next couple of years and multifamily starts to drop 40+%.
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Gallery will take more than 2 years to build as a time frame reference. 2 years is too short to refer as stagnation and we also both agree a pause is beneficial for long term attractability.
 
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