[UrbanWarrior]

Thank gods. Finally a decision.

 

[Mountain Man]

Build it, build it now!

 

[Sky of Blue]

Wow. The condescending tone of this letter.

 

[Dārayavauš]

I hope the UCP pulls funding so we can have another reason to get rid of them the next election. Plus I mean YYC and Ottawa will still be funding, so we can still build and force the shitty Alberta governments hand on this.

 

[Mountain Man]

Sadly the UCP withholding money would probably make them more popular to their base. From the sounds of it, lots of people have raised concerns, but once they see the revised plan they seem to feel much better. I was not expecting a 14-1 vote in favour from council...

 

[darwink]

The lack of understanding at council about risk management/the inability to explain risk management by admin almost did this one in. A pretty similar problem to what helped kill the Olympic Bid. Lack of understanding of risk allocation, contingency, and various contracting methods.

If the province had an agency like Infrastructure Ontario or Partnerships BC to handle much of/all large capital projects, this would be way less of a concern.

 

[Silence&Motion]

The UCP is only leading the NDP by 4 points in Calgary, according to 338canada.com. If there's a 10-15% shift to the NDP in Calgary (taken from the UCP or from the other left parties), the UCP could lose the next election even if they maintain their strength in rural areas and small towns. The UCP would be crazy to sabotage a project that has almost universal support within Calgary City Council and that polls extremely well with the public.

That said, the UCP seems to have this invincibility complex where they think they can do anything, no matter how unpopular, and will continue to win so long as they keep their hard-right supporters happy and prevent the emergence of another WRP.

 

[heightjunkie]

I have seen internal polling numbers. The UCP need to tread carefully not to erode their support in Calgary any further. This is definitely an issue that should be attacked to UCP representatives if you have the will: tell them that denying funding for the green line is an issue that will lose them support of Calgarians. That will get them to open the purse strings.

 

[JonnyCanuck]

I take a different view of McIver's letter. The Alberta government is taking an investors view of the project. No different than a private company. Before they invest, they want to make sure the revised numbers check out. This project has the potential for all kinds of cost overruns.
Also, don't bank on the federal governments share as being solid. Given all of the free-wheeling ( in most cases necessary) spending of the last 3 months, this could change. As a country we are in a big hole, deficit wise. The feds may revise their commitment, they may cap it or they might hold on to it for a period of time.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

^^ the way the feds have been acting, I’d say it’s just as likely that they’ll increase their funding if we needed it. Probably far more likely than them pulling or freezing their funding. Every major economy is in a massive hole right now, it’s not just Canada. We did what we needed to do to stay afloat as a nation. Now the government will be looking at ways to stimulate growth. Infrastructure projects are always at the top of that list.

I have seen internal polling numbers. The UCP need to tread carefully not to erode their support in Calgary any further. This is definitely an issue that should be attacked to UCP representatives if you have the will: tell them that denying funding for the green line is an issue that will lose them support of Calgarians. That will get them to open the purse strings.

I totally agree, but I can’t see how they wouldn’t already know this. This exercise is only to pander to their ultra conservative rural base. If they want to commit political suicide for the next election, they will cancel their Green Line funding. But they aren’t as stupid as many think they are, they know how to read a poll, and every city-wide poll on the Green Line shows overwhelming public support, all in the only swing ridings left in the province.

 

[heightjunkie]

^^ the way the feds have been acting, I’d say it’s just as likely that they’ll increase their funding if we needed it. Probably far more likely than them pulling or freezing their funding. Every major economy is in a massive hole right now, it’s not just Canada. We did what we needed to do to stay afloat as a nation. Now the government will be looking at ways to stimulate growth. Infrastructure projects are always at the top of that list.



I totally agree, but I can’t see how they wouldn’t already know this. This exercise is only to pander to their ultra conservative rural base. If they want to commit political suicide for the next election, they will cancel their Green Line funding. But they aren’t as stupid as many think they are, they know how to read a poll, and every city-wide poll on the Green Line shows overwhelming public support, all in the only swing ridings left in the province.

No doubt they "know." However what I have seen from this government in my dealings with them is that knowledge of polling data doesn't always dissuade them from making ideological choices. Internally they really do have a sense of invincibility still. They believe they will be able to recover from any number of unpopular policy choices pre election due to an unwavering base-- hell they still see their primary "opposition" as the federal liberal party rather than any serious provincial challenge.

So, if we really want to force their hand, get in their face about this one. Just a quick letter (don't do a form email) to your MLA saying that they better support green line funding or else.

 

[UrbanWarrior]

That’s good for us then, in the next election, if they see it that way. Their support in all three of the largest urban areas is and will continue to erode as they fuck up more and more.

The new anti-democracy bill banning protests, bungling the flood protection system, nowhere to be seen after last weeks hail disaster, removing the June pride flag in front of the leg that has flown for over a decade now, leaving our provincial parks open to resource exploitation and devastation, and now possible reneging on funding the largest infrastructure project in provincial history. I forget, how many nails does a coffin require?

**edited because I wrote “coffee” rather than coffin

 

[RicoLance21]

Just trying to wrap my head around this. If infrastructure is so critical, how did Doug Ford made the decision to scrap the LRT project in Hamilton? Were there any more rationale than just cost $5+billion? How many Hamiltonians were supporting/opposing the project prior to the cancellation?

 

[darwink]

Just trying to wrap my head around this. If infrastructure is so critical, how did Doug Ford made the decision to scrap the LRT project in Hamilton? Were there any more rationale than just cost $5+billion? How many Hamiltonians were supporting/opposing the project prior to the cancellation?

The Hamilton project was marked by a lack of support by more than a bare majority by council, and enough of that support was indifferent on LRT - the project included major streetscape and non LRT infrastructure improvements which had sweetened the deal enough to pass. The senior levels of government were similarly indifferent due to Hamilton’s ongoing inability to come to something near a political consensus—when Hamilton was putting 0 dollars into the project and it was still up in the air it is a strong signal that the project doesn’t have support!

TBH the project was a lot like London or Waterloo with not really enough benefit versus the cost (lacklustre ridership projections, minimal to no travel time improvements, and difficult to build in corridors). But once Waterloo got its project (for pure political reasons) the others of course needed an allocation too. It was money being available willing projects Into existence rather than projects compelling money.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Just trying to wrap my head around this. If infrastructure is so critical, how did Doug Ford made the decision to scrap the LRT project in Hamilton? Were there any more rationale than just cost $5+billion? How many Hamiltonians were supporting/opposing the project prior to the cancellation?

If by "critical" you mean "critical" to the political future of the governing party, then the Hamilton LRT was not critical to the Ontario PC Party. As @darwink mentioned, it had nowhere near as much support within Hamilton as the Green Line has in Calgary (keep in mind that Ontario is still largely unfamiliar with LRT technology and many are suspicious of it). Perhaps more importantly, Hamilton went 100% for the NDP, so the OPCP can ignore Hamilton in a way that the UCP cannot ignore Calgary.