The world can change so fast am emerging markets can seemingly explode overnight. Theres always that one sector that could spring up in Calgary without notice. tech is becoming more and more known in Calgary and i'm confident that over the next decade there will be a noticeable increase within that market here. Even with a 30% vacancy rate its only a matter of time before company begin to realize that they could save hundreds of thousands of dollars if they were to choose opening a headquarters in Calgary rather than say Toronto or Vancouver.

One thing that always floats around in my mind with that as well is that matter of Climate Change and the possible effects it could have on major economic areas along the coastline in not only Canada and the US but around the world. If the world and its weather patterns and environment were to drastically change then companies and people could be forced to move their businesses (big and small) and their lively hoods not only inland but farther north, or deep Deep South as well. Im fairly young so this as much as it pains me to think about, it could become a reality at some point during my lifetime. If this were to happen, and its looking like it might, them Calgary, Alberta and the other prairie provinces could become a very attractive place to relocate soon.
 
peopletalking said:
The world can change so fast am emerging markets can seemingly explode overnight. Theres always that one sector that could spring up in Calgary without notice. tech is becoming more and more known in Calgary and i'm confident that over the next decade there will be a noticeable increase within that market here. Even with a 30% vacancy rate its only a matter of time before company begin to realize that they could save hundreds of thousands of dollars if they were to choose opening a headquarters in Calgary rather than say Toronto or Vancouver.

One thing that always floats around in my mind with that as well is that matter of Climate Change and the possible effects it could have on major economic areas along the coastline in not only Canada and the US but around the world. If the world and its weather patterns and environment were to drastically change then companies and people could be forced to move their businesses (big and small) and their lively hoods not only inland but farther north, or deep Deep South as well. Im fairly young so this as much as it pains me to think about, it could become a reality at some point during my lifetime. If this were to happen, and its looking like it might, them Calgary, Alberta and the other prairie provinces could become a very attractive place to relocate soon.
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You've got a point there. In the worst case climate models the only areas which really remain liveable are in Canada and Russia (as well as southern Argentina). It's totally possible that in 30 years many of the big business hubs will either become too hot (California) or suffer severely from rising sea level (NY, Vancouver). In fact this has already begun to happen in some places. For instance in Thailand major companies have begun to leave Bangkok (which is extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels) and moving Inland to other urban centers (Chiang Mai).

So there's definitely a good chance that as time goes on Calgary and other prairie cites with more favourable climates/geography as well as secure water resources might start attracting people and businesses looking to insulate themselves from the worst of climate change.
 
Ubran Outdoorsman said:
You've got a point there. In the worst case climate models the only areas which really remain liveable are in Canada and Russia (as well as southern Argentina). It's totally possible that in 30 years many of the big business hubs will either become too hot (California) or suffer severely from rising sea level (NY, Vancouver). In fact this has already begun to happen in some places. For instance in Thailand major companies have begun to leave Bangkok (which is extremely vulnerable to rising sea levels) and moving Inland to other urban centers (Chiang Mai).

So there's definitely a good chance that as time goes on Calgary and other prairie cites with more favourable climates/geography as well as secure water resources might start attracting people and businesses looking to insulate themselves from the worst of climate change.
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I think the ultimate security of our water supply is in question in the event of climate changing as the worst models predict.
 
heightjunkie said:
I think the ultimate security of our water supply is in question in the event of climate changing as the worst models predict.
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Yep. A visit last summer to the Columbia icefield was a stark reminder for me. Glaciers that are eroding at a rapid rate (i.e the Bow) are the primary water source for much of the prairies.
 
The last time there was this much C02 in the atmosphere, the sea level was 100ft higher than it currently is [ source: climatecentral.org / journal of science ]. That would put a significant portion of the worlds population underwater, making a high elevation established city like Calgary much more attractive. Even if we completely stopped all emissions we'd have to take greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere to avoid that happening, but it's going to take a few decades. In the meantime we have to consider expanding flood planes, impact of wildfires/smoke, loss of biotic diversity/increased ecosystem volatility, and more irregularities in the jet stream (this one is scary for Calgary). Assuming we don't run out of food, a lot of other things will probably ruin us before the rising sea level pushes a meaningful number of people here. Doom and gloom aside we still have a chance to combat climate change, we just have to figure out how to make it work economically, unfortunately it's the best way to motivate people.

The Oxford site is a prime location for a supertall - if Calgary were to have one - but probably not until the population gets to 2M.
 
JonnyCanuck said:
Yep. A visit last summer to the Columbia icefield was a stark reminder for me. Glaciers that are eroding at a rapid rate (i.e the Bow) are the primary water source for much of the prairies.
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It is weird. When I was young I recall videos about them being even more massive, and seeing them I thought they were eroding but could hardly imagine it being as dramatic as they claimed it would be. Seeing them now 30 years later I am in shock that it is worse even than they claimed... the ice in some of these places has receded so far that they are barely recognizable from my childhood. Im not that old...
Even more jarring though, I remember the conversation used to be about stopping the glaciers from melting. It has changed into an absolute certainty that they will melt and now is about what to do when they do melt. Seems like a big yikes.
 
It would be nice to see a new tallest in the city, but I hope it's a different design, and maybe a mixed use tower.
 
potatopizzafan said:
you don't think another major office building will be built here again in our lifetimes? That is one hell of a hot take 😂
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I would have taken the original comment as an exaggerated point, but now I'm beginning to wonder. If we didn't have so much free office space available I would say for sure we would see another major office tower or two built in at least the next 30 years, given given the amount of space and a trend that will see more people working from home I'm not sure anymore.
 
I wasn't exaggerating. We will be losing office space over the long term (residential conversions), and still having high vacancies. Most major tech hubs don't even have 11 million sq ft of office space taken up by tech companies. That is the amount of space we have vacant downtown alone.
 
From the City's website on the downtown office space problem https://www.calgary.ca/ca/city-mana...0, Calgary,any comparable North American city.

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To get a sense of scale of the gap - we could double in population without building a single new office block and we would only get to Toronto levels today. A glut this big is a biproduct of a single-industry inefficient boom, where we had multiple, large and growing companies all needing space in an era where automation and remote working hadn't taken off yet. The genius of the Canadian oil sector was it's prolonged wild level of disaggregation - 10 engineers in 10 companies in 10 towers instead of 2 - 3 in 1 company in 1 tower. Made loads of people rich but pigeon-holed people and our downtown to be only good at one thing.

Residential conversion are for sure a future for the towers that can support the conversion - but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few buildings fall into disrepair and are torn down as well in the coming decades, particularly the older stock found mostly in the west part of downtown. The quality office will probably remain and keep adapting to new industries as needed.
 
One thing is for certain: we won't see a new office tower any time soon. Some of the office space will be absorbed over time, and some will be converted to residential, but it'll be a long time before an 'office only' tower is built. That said, CBBarnett's right, over the next decade or two many of the buildings from the 70s and 80s will be old and undesirable, and it's possible a company may want to move into a newly built tower even though other towers sit empty. We've seen office towers get built in other cities that have a fair amount of free space or empty towers so I wouldn't count out a new tower just yet, but it's gonna be a while.
 
I am pretty sure CBB was referring to the vast inventory of new office towers we already have with millions of square feet of empty space, not future built new ones. Could be wrong though.
 
UrbanWarrior said:
I am pretty sure CBB was referring to the vast inventory of new office towers we already have with millions of square feet of empty space, not future built new ones. Could be wrong though.
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I think you're right, he mainly was referring to the inventory we have now. I was more or less agreeing with him, and others that we won't see any new office towers for a while. He mentioned older buildings possibly falling into disrepair,

Residential conversion are for sure a future for the towers that can support the conversion - but I wouldn't be surprised if we see a few buildings fall into disrepair and are torn down as well in the coming decades, particularly the older stock found mostly in the west part of downtown. The quality office will probably remain and keep adapting to new industries as needed.

and I believe it's true. It has happened in other cities where office buildings become completely empty or mostly empty. I believe there's a chance of seeing a new office building again, but it's a long ways away, and it's also likely it'd be mixed use. I'd love to see some residential conversions happen.
 
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