I'm anxious to see what the census tracts in areas like Capitol Hill, Renfrew, Mt Pleasant, Mard Loop, etc look like next census. I wonder if they go a darker shade of green. Also will be interesting to see if EV 606 and Arris West will be enough to help push EV to pink?
I could see Mission and Bankview turning to red with all the developments there in the past few years.
The majority of census tracts in Calgary are about 2,000 - 3,500 people / sq-km. This represents the majority of the city's area, which are mostly growth areas from the 1970s - 2000s suburban era. Higher density areas are inner city redevelopment areas as well as brand-new suburbs with higher amounts of children per house (and denser community designs).
Of note, the CT with the West District in it was about 3,200 people / sq-km in 2021. Notably, it's a large tract with a large population, I think it's likely to split into 2 new tracts in next census - there's some threshold that Statscan uses when deciding when/how to slice things up. This would likely push at least one of those new tracts into the next bucket up, perhaps over 10,000 people / sq-km depending on how it's sliced. But I am no Statscan methodology expert so someone smarter can tell us!
Many of our CTs include large swathes of parks and/or undeveloped lands. For example, East Village includes Fort Calgary, so regardless of the density in the the neighbourhood proper, the CT is unlikely to show a substantially higher density in the next census. A bunch of communities have similar issues - particularly when we get into those bloated arterial setback era of the 1970s and 2000s. That's a lot of undeveloped land that needs to be amortized over incremental population growth to bump a community from one density threshold to another!
With all that said, it's still just arbitrary lines and data slices - there isn't really a "right answer" here, it's all up to interpretation. I think 10,000 / sq-km is a round and compelling number, but still arbitrary line I invented for this conversation.
Bankview has been sitting at 8,000 to 9,000 / sq-km for decades and is a great neighbourhood - it doesn't have any walkable retail despite that density so there's obviously more to the story than a specific density threshold.