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cdr108

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MAY 2009
More deflation, Montreal holding up best


http://www.housepriceindex.ca/admin.aspx?mode=voirHTML&nonews=76&qui=1450&langue=EN

Canadian home prices in March were down 5.8% from a year earlier, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Indexâ„¢. It was the fourth consecutive 12-month decline. March was also the seventh straight month in which the composite index was down from the month before - the longest run of monthly declines since the beginning of index coverage in February 2000. The composite is now down 8.5% from its peak of last August.

Of the six constituent city indices, four were down from a year earlier: Vancouver (−9.6%), Calgary (−8.4%), Toronto (−6.7%) and Halifax (−0.8%). While prices were still up from a year earlier in Montreal (3.2%) and Ottawa (2.8%), the 12-month increase in those two cities has decelerated markedly in recent months. In Calgary, prices have been correcting for well over a year now - since August 2007 - and are now down 12.7% from the peak of that month. Calgary has shown monthly declines in 16 of the 19 months posted since then, including every month from last July through March.


Vancouver prices have also shown nine consecutive monthly declines, and are down 11.7% from peak. Toronto prices have declined seven months in a row and are down 10.8% from peak. Ottawa prices have declined five months in a row and are down 4.3% from peak. A run of three monthly declines in Halifax was interrupted in March, but prices there are 3.0% below their November peak. Montreal prices have held up better. In March they were flat from the month before, down 1.6% from the peak of last September after monthly declines in four of the six intervening months.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™


The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan area Index level
Mar-2009 % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak Date
Calgary 152.97 -0.8 % -8.4 % -12.7% Aug-2007
Halifax 118.17 1.0 % -0.8 % -3.0% Nov-2008
Montreal 120.60 0.0 % 2.9 % -1.6% Sep-2008
Ottawa 113.14 -0.5 % 1.0 % -4.3% Oct-2008
Toronto 104.68 -1.9 % -6.9 % -10.8% Aug-2008
Vancouver 133.02 -1.7 % -9.6 % -11.7% Jun-2008
National Composite 119.62 -1.3 % -5.8 % -8.5% Aug-2008

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.
 
Metropolitan area Index level
Mar-2009 % change m/m % change y/y From peak Peak Date
Calgary 152.97 -0.8 % -8.4 % -12.7% Aug-2007
Halifax 118.17 1.0 % -0.8 % -3.0% Nov-2008
Montreal 120.60 0.0 % 2.9 % -1.6% Sep-2008
Ottawa 113.14 -0.5 % 1.0 % -4.3% Oct-2008
Toronto 104.68 -1.9 % -6.9 % -10.8% Aug-2008
Vancouver 133.02 -1.7 % -9.6 % -11.7% Jun-2008
National Composite 119.62 -1.3 % -5.8 % -8.5% Aug-2008

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.
It's not surprising that Calgary and Vancouver are the most as risk. I might have thought Vancouver would have been top of the list though, and Ottawa would have been lower than Toronto.
 

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