[cacruden]

Quebec losing interest in independence: poll

OTTAWA (Reuters) - People in French-speaking Quebec are rapidly losing interest in the idea of independence, according to a new poll released on Tuesday.

The CROP poll for the La Presse newspaper showed only 34 percent of Quebecers would vote "yes" in a referendum on whether to split from the rest of Canada, down steeply from 43 percent before last week's federal election. The number who would vote "no" rose to 58 percent from 49 percent.

The newspaper linked the drop in support for separatism to the election result. The Conservatives beat the Liberals, who had been badly hurt by a corruption scandal in Quebec which damaged the image of federalism in the province.

The Conservatives promised to be more sensitive to Quebec's demands for more freedom inside Canada. They won 10 of the provinces' 75 seats, up from none before the election.

Referendums on independence in 1980 and 1995 both failed. The separatist Parti Quebecois -- currently in opposition in Quebec -- has promised to call a third vote if it wins power in provincial elections expected in 2007.

The CROP poll showed support for the Parti Quebecois had dropped to 38 percent, from 44 percent before the election, while the Liberals were backed by 27 percent, up from 17 percent.

The CROP poll of 1,000 Quebecers was carried out from January 19 to January 29 and is considered accurate to within three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

This is going to be interesting to watch. The Conservatives made almost all their ground in Quebec on the basis of increased autonomy for the province and there is going to be a lot of pressure from people to follow through on that promise.

If the Conservatives do enter into real discussions about the issues and can offer a federal structure that gives Quebec the freedom it desires, then the independence movement is going to take a serious hit and push it off the radar.

However, if they dont follow through, it will be different story. While the Bloc may have lost a few seats and some of the popular vote its not as simple as that. They had a far lose of hardliners to the Conservatives because of Harpers talk about autonomy. But the Bloc is still making gains among anglophone, allophone and other non-traditional Bloc voters. Should nothing come out of the talk of increased autonomy, you will not only have the hardliners returning to the sovereignty movement, but you also have the additional support of the new voters they are still attracting.

I am going to be watching very closely as I am quite interested in seeing how Harper is going to handle discussions on this issue.

 

[ganjavih]

I don't think support for the BQ or 'Yes' support in polls has much to do with a true desire for independence. As recent polls have shown, these numbers are very volatile often representing a protest against something. When push comes to shove, I don't think a majority of Quebecers would support true separation from Canada. I think the movement died a long time ago.

 

[cacruden]

A portion of the 'Yes' vote does not have much to do with true independance..... it has more to do with the Liberals try to run things from Ottawa and not leaving it to Quebec to be responsible for. A basic disrespect for local jurisdiction.

Money is not the root of alienation, it is feeling like you have a lack of control ..... this is only made worse when the culture differs locally -- it creates an Us vs Them mentality.

The drop in the polls reflects this. The Conservatives have said that they will be much more respsponsive to this idea. Failure (or re-electing the Liberals) and those numbers will increase again -- and independance is back in the cards.

 

[bizorky]

don't think a majority of Quebecers would support true separation from Canada.

There were polls in the past that suggested a trend of support for seperation of about 30% over a couple of decades. It will be interesting to see if this holds as Quebec's population grows to be more diverse, and the emphasis of pur-laine idealism falls off.

 

[Darkstar416]

I think there's plenty of sovereigntists left in Quebec to keep the movement alive for the rest of our lives personally. However, I think there is a sense (even amongst some of the hard-liners) that Quebec's chance at independence was probably lost. I think even Lucien Bouchard knows that.

The hard-line support is always around 35%. It's the soft nationalist support that goes up and down (sometimes like a yo-yo). However, even that support rarely goes much above 50%.

Harper has his work cut-out for him. He won't give QC anything he can't give the rest of the provinces, so the likely outcomes is that one of the world's most decentralized states, will become even more so.

 

[bizorky]

think there's plenty of sovereigntists left in Quebec to keep the movement alive for the rest of our lives personally.

I would have to agree. The movement won't die, but it probably won't succeed, either (which is not to say that it won't do so ever).

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

I would have to agree. The movement won't die, but it probably won't succeed, either (which is not to say that it won't do so ever).

The one thing to remember about this movement is isnt just limited to a single generation. The idea is talked about and discussed in everyday life, media, music, casual conversations with family and friends, schools, etc. The idea of sovereignty is very much a part of youth culture and growing up. And with the Universitie De Quebec and all of its campuses the province(society) has really done a lot to promote the idea. The movement will not go away anytime soon.

I think depending on what happens with Harper selling Quebec voters on the idea of increased autonomy will play a big role too what happens to it in the immediate future. If Harper does in fact work with the province, it could subside quite a bit and maybe shift into a different focus. If in the end nothing is accomplised though, I could see the movement becoming quite vocal and strong again. And in Quebec there is a provincial election coming up in a year and a half (I believe) which will coincide most likely with the end of this minority government. It wouldnt be out of the question to see a strong Bloc in the federal government again and PQ government in Quebec. If that did happen, it could make for a very interesting time.

 

[bizorky]

The one thing to remember about this movement is isnt just limited to a single generation.

Trust me, I know; I was there in 1976. Now 2006, and the beat goes on.

 

[ganjavih]

I should clarify... I didn't mean the movement was dead, rather, I meant the chance for complete separation is dead. It ain't gonna happen. Even if by some miracle, a large majority of Quebecers were to favour independence and an attempt was made to secede, civil war would break out with the Island of Montreal and the Cree North refusing to go along.

 

[cacruden]

I should clarify... I didn't mean the movement was dead, rather, I meant the chance for complete separation is dead. It ain't gonna happen. Even if by some miracle, a large majority of Quebecers were to favour independence and an attempt was made to secede, civil war would break out with the Island of Montreal and the Cree North refusing to go along.

IMHO,

What has the federal government done to combat seperatism? Nothing. Everytime it comes up the government of Canada has spent much of it's resources on "scare tactics" -- if you seperate -- we will hit you over the head with a club -- you will die a horrible death.

What have the Sovereigntists done? They have been selling a dream.

In the short run -- scare tactics work -- in the long run -- the selling of a dream works.

I believe that the sovereigntist movement has built up its foundations in the Quebec media, and in the institutions of higher learning.... building a foundation from which to work from.

As far as civil war would break out..... unlikely ... there might be some that choose to leave (a.k.a. 1976) but most will stay if they have a job or are able to make money.

Cree North: Simple -- they will drive the best bargain that they can with whoever they can -- but in the end I believe Quebec will make the better offer.

 

[bizorky]

cacruden,

What is ironic is that some past attempts by the feds to stave off separatist sentiments actually helped to inflate the movement.