carturo15
Active Member
I don't see anything special about that "I" model, the closets are very small, for smaller units I have seen much bigger closets. for that small place an island is a waste of space, making the living are very tiny.
I don't see anything special about that "I" model, the closets are very small, for smaller units I have seen much bigger closets. for that small place an island is a waste of space, making the living are very tiny.
Re: I unit
for such a small space (511 SF), IMO the interior designer could have done a slightly better layout and missed an opportunity to create an additional 15 SF of usuable closet or livable area by changing the orientation of the entry and resulting bathroom, laundry, closets.
the bedroom dimensions are misleading and the jagged wall resulting from the W/D will be ackward.
there's only 2.5 linear feet of closet space in the bedroom and 1.5 feet in the entry hall
I don't see anything special about that "I" model, the closets are very small, for smaller units I have seen much bigger closets. for that small place an island is a waste of space, making the living are very tiny.
They just increased the price of the 'I' unit by $20,000. This was over and above the early increase of $5,000. I believe when they go public there is likely to be another increase, which i think is 3rd weekend in June.
I think I read somewhere that real estate prices are supposed to drop by 10 to 15%, or even more, in the next 2/3 years. Did any body else read the same story?
I think I read somewhere that real estate prices are supposed to drop by 10 to 15%, or even more, in the next 2/3 years. Did any body else read the same story?
Just my thoughts on this:
1. They almost always say this. I bought my first condo in 2002 at 18 Yonge..it was pre-construction. I got a corner 2 bedroom for $205k. All the articles in the paper and on the radio were calling for a drop in prices. I was even a bit embarrased to tell my family about it as i could tell they were thinking was a dumb investment i'd made. Everybody believes the media!
2. You have to make your own call. IT'S YOUR CALL!! Be careful you don't get manipulated by the media..in all things.
3. Eventually they will all be right. Prices will not go up indefinately, so you have to be careful you don't overleverage yourself.
I think 5 years out, there is definately some risk, which is why i only bought a small unit. It's also why i cancelled my 1 Bloor purchase. That was for more money, they wanted 25% down over the next 2 years, and i think that project will take 7 or 8 years to build (The Pemberton one across the street will be about 6) and i thought it was just too much money and too far out. The risks get bigger, but maybe the appreciation potential gets bigger as well. I may regret the decisions i made on these projects, (i make mistakes all the time!), but heh, you have to take some risks!
Just send you a PM!i have 2 units... i thinking about letting go one on the high floor...anyone interested?
I think this is sensible advise, however, if alot of "investors" are speculating on price increases with no intention of being landlords if the market does not escalate in value, and further, if alot of those same "investors" are not financially solid enough to close in the event of a downturn(say speculating on 2 or 3 condos in different projects), the situation could unravel quite quickly. And as prices drop, it drags other somewhat better capitalized investors down with it.
I am not saying this is the case. Alot of speculation out there is that 30 to50% are investors. The question is, how many of those investors are in the situation I described above. If it is less than 5-10%, shouldn't be a big problem. If it is 25% or more, then it could get very ugly over a few years: 2012 to 2014 is where I would predict. It may soften in 2011 but the real question will be 2012 onwards. (investors can hold on in the short term but longer term usually either willingly or unwillingly cut their losses).
Of course all of this is predicated on prices dropping and as you say, maybe it will keep going up for a few more years. I just doubt this is the more likely scenario.
interested....yes, there is always the risk of the house of cards coming tumbling down. I like your timeframes here. I'm very comfortable until the US elections in 2012. I think we will go up until then. Thereafter is the more difficult call to make. But we will be sitting at higher prices then. Let's call the the CIBC prediction the $600 sq ft prediction in terms of putting a start price on it. $600 because X2 and Five are selling for about $600 sq ft, and you can get a decent resale now at CASA for about the same $600. So let's see where we go from here. I'm projecting $750 sq ft by 2012. So even if we dropped a whopping 20% from that , it would bring us back to the $600 price range again....so we'd have to get a pretty hefty drop to lose money.
There is a really good long term cycle prognosticator i follow and he sees U.S. real estate bottoming in 2012 and moving up for the next 3 to 4 years thereafter. So if that were to actually happen, then it's reasonable to assume we would carry on up with them over this time frame. This would put the price per sq ft in the $900 to $1000 range as a best case scenerio. I'm not saying this is going to happen, but it's a consideration that helped me pull the trigger. And remember, nobody wants the masses the think like this, as you can imagine the speculation would really get out of hand. But the possibility exists.
So i kind of see the worst case scenerio a breakeven one over the next 5 years until the project is completed, and perhaps a small loss if we tumble a lot. But the upside based on the numbers i've quoted could be quite exciting as well.
My Five,
Consider that in 2002 costs were in the neighbourhood of $200/sq. ft. They are now closer to $500-$600/sq. ft. Let's allow there are somewhat better finishings being offered. If in 5 more years, it was $1000, you are talking about a five fold increase in price in 13 years. In the US, they tripled in 6 years in the very hot markets and you see the result.
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