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- Thread starter W. K. Lis
- Start date
Admiral Beez
Superstar
Can Biden win if the GOP fronts another less controversial candidate in Nov 2024?
old boy
Senior Member
I think Biden winning the next election would be more difficult without Trump in it. Biden is salivating over the prospect of going head to head with Trump. If the GOP had a real desire to take the White House, they would be grooming a replacement for Trump Train. Maybe they are.
kEiThZ
Superstar
If it's head to head, I expect Trump to win. Electoral College favours the GOP heavily. And Trump has supporters who show up.
Northern Light
Superstar
Nominally, I agree.
Of course, Colorado's Suprreme Court just ruled that Trump is disqualified from the ballot. (the ruling is stayed for now, pending appeal)
If 2 or more states that might lean Trump do that.............
kEiThZ
Superstar
I am just saying. Everybody talks about how popular (or not) Joe Biden. Trump has never won the popular vote. He won the Electoral College in 2016. And came pretty close in 2020.
old boy
Senior Member
Is there a point where he wins the Electoral College and still loses the popular vote by millions more than he did in 2020, that the American system is neutered ?
Admiral Beez
Superstar
My question is why did the US and State prosecutors wait so long to press charges and indite Trump, so that now the trials and possible convictions will occur after Trump has locked the GOP nomination in March 2024 and been formally nominated in, IIRC July 2024. The Jan 6th attack was four years ago, and only now you're indicting him? My inner cynic tells me the federal prosecutors were delaying in order to have the trial fall into late 2023 in order to disrupt Trump's nomination, but they didn't count on the delays pushing things into the summer/autumn 2024. They'd better hope for convictions before Nov, since if Trump wins he'll cancel all federal inditements in Jan 2025. At least the US voters will have consciously elected a convicted insurrectionist as POTUS.
lenaitch
Senior Member
I don't have a Gantt chart-type timeline, but a number of the indictments have been enabled or at least supported by a number of inner-circle types flipping or taking plea bargains to protect their own asses or lessen their liability. When one process depends on another, it becomes a set of serial rather than parallel events. Add that to the simple labourious nature of gathering evidence along with the grand jury system and it rolls out to 'stuff takes time'. Throw in parallel processes of individual states plus the federal actions.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
But why wait until Dec 2023 to ask the Supreme Court to rule on whether former President Donald Trump can be prosecuted for his actions to overturn the 2020 election results?
lenaitch
Senior Member
As I said, I'm not aware of all the timelines surrounding all of the civil and criminal legal proceedings against him (and there are a lot), but this action follows on a Dec 1 lower court ruling that he was 'prosecutable'. Proceedings normally have to flow through the hierarchy of courts. An application to SCOTUS appears to want to bypass at least one layer.
Whether or not he can be prosecuted, and if, in fact he was convicted (yet another step and process), it is apparently an open question whether or not that would bar him from office.
Four years isn't really a long time to trundle through the legal system. Heck, speeding tickets can take longer up here.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
There's no way Trump is more popular now than he was in 2020, so I think we're mostly safe from a Trump win in Nov. But IF the GOP candidate is not Trump, I'd say Biden is in big trouble.
Towered
Superstar
Never underestimate the utter lunacy of voters. If Trump is the Republican candidate, he's inexplicably got a 50-50 shot at winning.
ShonTron
Moderator
Exactly. You just need enough loonies in enough states, plus enough 2020 Biden voters not showing up in 2024.
The Electoral College and the Democratic Party are largely to blame.
Admiral Beez
Superstar
SCOTUS is also unpredictable, but I would not be surprised if the court blocks Trump from the ballot.
The Supreme Court will decide if Donald Trump can be kept off 2024 presidential ballots
WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court said Friday it will decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept off the ballot because of his efforts to overturn his 2020
www.thestar.com
Paywall free: https://archive.is/wvhmP
And if that happens I’d say that Haley is the likely GOP candidate, and if so, Biden is toast.