[Kitsune]

Simply put... some really low area's along the water front that are normally above water year-round will be under-water with tomorrow's rain in all like-li-hood (its already dangerously close). I wouldnt be surprised to hear if the parts of the Island has already begun to flood. The airport doesnt have much room either... one good wind storm now could end up flooding parts of the airport. I thought the St. Lawrence river was suppose to prevent flooding?

 

[gabe]

Rain today and 5-10 mm of rain tomorrow Hopefully after Monday we'll get a dry spell, or we very well could see some flooding around the island and the area's around the lake.

 

[Chuck]

The level of Lake Ontario is regulated by a dam at Cornwall which controls outflow. Lake levels intentionally fluctuate by about 2 feet on an annual basis, with the lowest levels usually occurring in November and the highest levels occurring in June. What you are witnessing is the normal seasonal variation in water levels, which usually places water levels 2 feet higher at this time of year than they likely were only a few months ago.

As for rainfall events, individual storms equate to a drop in the bucket. This weekend's rain will have no noticeable effect on lake levels. You can rest easy.

 

[Kitsune]

The level of Lake Ontario is regulated by a dam at Cornwall which controls outflow. Lake levels intentionally fluctuate by about 2 feet on an annual basis, with the lowest levels usually occurring in November and the highest levels occurring in June. What you are witnessing is the normal seasonal variation in water levels, which usually places water levels 2 feet higher at this time of year than they likely were only a few months ago.

As for rainfall events, individual storms equate to a drop in the bucket. This weekend's rain will have no noticeable effect on lake levels. You can rest easy.

this is a lot more then seasonal variations... they actually had to build a a smallish sand dike at some of the beaches in the beaches because of the water level. It is sitting perfectly level to a lower sea (lake?) wall... and waves are cresting a good foot over it. I've been here for 5 years now... its never come this close to the top on a full time basis. Talking to others who've been here a lot longer and they dont recall seeing it this high either.

 

[Redroom Studios]

besides seasonal variations there are also multi-year cycles that can either trend up or down outside of seasonal norms. I can remember only about 5 years ago when we were experiencing much warmer and drier years that lake levels were "dangerously" low. Infact just a few months ago I heard a radio documentary depicting the end of civilization as we know it because of low lake levels. (obviously the program was a few years out of date). I had to laugh and the turned it off. Sure some low lying places on the lake shore may be getting wet but it is nothing to worry about. Keep in mind that it has been a very wet year all throughout the northeast so its not as simple as draining L. Ontario faster into the St Lawrence when hundreds of rivers are all feeding into that point and beyond it. Water will take 3 - 6 months to work its way through the drainage basin.

 

[current]

Here is a chart showing the water levels in Lake Ontario and how they compare to previous years. The government of Canada web site has charts for all of the Great Lakes and Montreal Harbour. They are updated monthly and in the past the lake level has been higher than it is now.

http://www.waterlevels.gc.ca/C&A/bulletin_e.html

Northumberland Today online article:

Shoreline Owners May Experience Damages Along Lake Ontario
Posted 3 days ago

A rise in Lake Ontario water levels over the past few months has moved the lake to above normal levels for this time of year. Lower Trent Conservation (LTC) advises landowners living along Lake Ontario and the Bay of Quinte from Grafton to Quinte West to be aware of the potential for shoreline erosion and flooding in low-lying areas.

The lake is presently at 75.3 metres (247 feet) above sea level which is 50 centimetres (20 inches) above the long term average. It is 80 centimetres (31.5 inches) higher than it was at the same time last year.

The potential for flooding and erosion damages increases during strong storm events as lake setup and high waves result in greater fluctuations in water levels. Wind set-up is caused when strong winds blowing the length of the lake "pile up" water on the down-wind shoreline, essentially tilting the level of the lake from end to end. The biggest threat from storm surges for shoreline landowners along Lake Ontario and the Bay of Quinte come from strong southwest winds.

During periods of strong winds, property owners along the shoreline should be aware that water levels can rise or fall significantly in a short period of time.

Lake Ontario has risen to above normal levels over the past month due to above normal precipitation over the entire Lake Ontario basin during the past three months.

LTC staff will be monitoring marine forecasts closely and will provide updates as conditions warrant.

http://www.northumberlandtoday.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=3131603