kEiThZ
Superstar
The price per passenger for HSR would be exuberantly expensive when compared to HFR and conventional means of transportation (airfare, bus), which means it would be a highly subsidized route if ever built.
More expensive than the bus? More expensive than airfare? Debatable since Canada has exorbitant airfares. Some of the highest in the world actually. Carbon tax only going to make that difference higher.
Also the bolded is not necessarily true, especially at the necessary higher price points required to make some sort of business case for the line.
It's based on price. But if the price was just a bit less than air travel, usage would be quite high. There's the advantage of centre to centre travel. Wealso have worse weather than a lot of the world. And higher gas taxes than the US.
In reality, we probably need something of a hybrid approach:
1) Mostly double track. Fully electrified. No substantial grade separation. And some straightening. Between Toronto and Ottawa. Goal should be to get that segment down to 2:45. 3 hrs maximum.
2) Ottawa-Montreal built to high speed rail standards. Fully grade separated, twin tracked and electrified. Get the trip down to 1:15 or even an hour. This makes Ottawa-Montreal commutable. And makes Toronto-Montreal a 4 hr trip.
Something like the above would take HFR from $4B to $6-7B. But it would be quite defensible in my opinion because it would vastly boost Ottawa-Montreal traffic (especially for travel through Dorval) and would take substantial market share from air travel on the Toronto-Ottawa sector. It would also be competitive enough with driving and buses on Toronto-Montreal to offer real value. The planned 4:45 trip with HFR is going to have a small market.