[Antiloop33rpm]

What are everyones thoughts on the next session of parliment? Will it be short, or get a few years out of it? Will nothing really exciting happen, or will it be one that sees a lot of fireworks and change? What bills will be passed? What will budgets be like?

I havent yet been able to put my finger on just what it is that seems different about this government. There is just something about the dynamic of how the seats have been allocated between the parties, and the overall political nature of Canada right now that has me thinking this will be very interesting. And, that by the end of the next election, a lot is going to have changed as a result of this parliment. Since the start of the 2004 election it has felt as though the country has entered into a political play. Act 1 finished sometime after the Liberals took office with a minority government, and right now, we are somewhere in the middle of act 2 of a 3 act play. But Im still not sure where it is all headed. Slowly (or rapidly when you think about it in generational terms) there seems to be a restructuring of politics in this country and without much historical precedence, its really hard to gauge just what might happen next (of course, that wont stop me from trying my damnedest to understand it all).

 

[EnviroTO]

I agree that it will be the most interesting parliament ever. I think that no matter what happens the next goverment will either be a huge Conservative majority, a huge Liberal majority, or an NDP minority. It could last 3 months or 3 years depending on the flexibility of the Conservatives, the support for the Conservative agenda and the disfunction of the opposition parties.

I think that a Conservative government is a great time for a loud NDP. The NDP won't be able to do anything really but if they are loud enough on every issue they might be able to capture more or the left and center vote if the Liberals seem disfunctional, if the public feels the Liberal makeover is only skin deep, or if the Liberals support too many of Harpers priorities making them look like the new PC party.

The Liberals are a big question mark because they need to make it look like they are a new party which means the new leader can't be connected to the two old governments. The more Conservative items the Liberals vote to accept the less they look radically different than the Conservatives which probably hurts them. The NDP came out of the last parliament looking like they really made an impact... if the Liberals don't do the same this time they will have no chance barring a complete Conservative screw-up.

On the Conservative side of things if they don't actually end up going down the path of getting rid of homosexual marriage (i.e. if their motion actually paseed), they don't gut many services, and the radicals remain silent they could really come out of this in good shape. If the radicals make noise, the opposition is really good and finding flaws in their moderate agenda, or they themselves end up with an investigation on their hands then the Conservatives could be in real trouble. Chretien showed that doing virtually nothing can get you re-elected as long as you don't have a scandal on your hands. The question is can the Conservatives put off any right-wing agenda indefinitely.

It will be the most interesting session of parliament for a long time for sure.

 

[adma]

I'm uncertain about the NDP--their problem now is that the Liberals didn't lose as much ground as they could have. Y'know, relative to pre-election prognostications that saw the Grits bobbing back to 60-seatish Bloc-level--and, perhaps, the NDP verging on 40something Broadbent-levels. *Then*, maybe, as after 1984's Gritastrophe, the NDP might have looked like an true alternative contender...