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I'm predicting Calgary will have taken about 53% of the population growth, with Edmonton around 34% and ~15% for the rest of the province. It's a guess, but also basing on housing starts and inventory on the real estate market over the past two years. Calgary housing starts have been significantly higher than Edmonton's, especially in 2023, with Calgary making up 56% of Alberta's housing starts in 2023 and Edmonton making up 37%. Housing starts don't translate directly to growth, but it gives an indication. If Calgary had 55% of the housing starts in a year when the province grew by 202,000 that should translate into some huge numbers. also Calgary's housing market exploded much more than anywhere else in the province during 2023, even during a time of interest rate hikes.
That would be my guess too. I think Calgary will be around 50% in Edmonton around 35%, with 15% for the rest of the province. It’s possible we could see Calgary grow by more than 100,000 in one year that would be unbelievable.
 
It blows my mind that that many people could arrive in Calgary and there be any housing inventory left at all. I mean how on earth did potentially 100,000 people find places to live? I seriously hope developers can ramp up housing construction to keep up with this pase of growth.
 
If we do indeed hit over 100,000, that is some crazy growth, nearly equivalent to adding a Regina or Kelowna every 2 years. That sort of annualized number was previously only seen in much larger centres like Houston, Dallas and Toronto.
 
Seems like the biggest growth is in the work permits. What are the industries that are recruiting a lot of foreign workers?
Just anecdotal but I've noticed a crazy amount of Ukrainians lately. Stayed at a hotel in Canmore, every employee was Ukrainian. Recently had a garage built, all Ukrainians. Have noticed it at a couple other establishments with mostly entry level type jobs too
 
It blows my mind that that many people could arrive in Calgary and there be any housing inventory left at all. I mean how on earth did potentially 100,000 people find places to live? I seriously hope developers can ramp up housing construction to keep up with this pase of growth.
I think a decent amount of international immigrants live with friends or relatives when they arrive. Not sure what the percentage is, but it definitely happens.
Just anecdotal but I've noticed a crazy amount of Ukrainians lately. Stayed at a hotel in Canmore, every employee was Ukrainian. Recently had a garage built, all Ukrainians. Have noticed it at a couple other establishments with mostly entry level type jobs too
There's a house not far from me that has about a dozen Ukranians living there. I don't know how many families, but there appears to be possibly three...or at least three couples, and some children.
 
Add to the anecdote on Ukrainians for home renovation projects. Our window teams was definitely people who had spent years in Western Europe installing windows, and who moved to Canada with the surge due to the war. The non-refugee pathway seems to have been the right choice on behalf of the government, coordinated with the EU which enables the 'market' to better allocate migration flows.
 
A net gain of 55,000 people inter-provincially is massive. I guess the government campaign of “cheap housing is calling” is working!
Not only that but Alberta is also one of the fastest growing province GDP-wise. And how pace of housing starts, while not keeping up with population, is amongst the highest in the country. I think this bodes well for the long term for economic diversification, that there's people of all different skills moving here.
 
Something I forgot to mention earlier regarding Calgary’s population growth, I was talking to my brother-in-law, who works at one of the big banks, and he mentioned that just over half of all new bank accounts opened or transferred to Alberta with his bank were in the Calgary area.
In the past those percentages have closely mirrored population percentages.
It might be different for 2023 due to the number of temporary workers, who knows how many of those workers have opened, bank accounts, or transferred their bank to a branch here.
Whatever the case is, I think we’re looking at at upwards of 80,000 for 2023.
 

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