[Kenny]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/a-sharp-shift-in-the-market/article1567752/

Some homeowners who were waiting for their gardens to spring to life before they listed their houses for sale are wondering if they would have been better off planting a sign on the lawn in the barren days of February and March. The answer, most likely, is yes.

Toronto’s real-estate landscape has shifted in the past few weeks with a burgeoning number of houses listed for sale.

For prospective buyers, the change means they are facing a phenomenon they haven’t encountered in quite some time: choice.

Real-estate broker Patrick Rocca of Bosley Real Estate Ltd. says the Toronto market has become quirky since listings began ramping up immediately after Easter.

Now, some houses are selling in bidding contests at premiums above the asking price that Mr. Rocca deems “crazy,†while in other cases agents anticipated a quick sale and the property is just sitting.

“A month or six weeks ago, everything was a slam dunk.â€

Mr. Rocca says every spring brings a rush of new listings when the freshness of new leaves makes houses and tree-lined streets look their best, but in 2010 that seasonal trend is even more exaggerated.

Some sellers have recently gone with the strategy of holding off buyers until a specified hour so that all of the bids can be considered at once, only to see the night pass by without receiving a single offer. Other sellers are trimming their asking price as the competition increases.

As for new houses, Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns, says developers are ramping up their building at a pace that may be too quick compared with the rate at which households are forming. “One could argue that the short-lived construction recession didn’t last long enough to work off the overbuilding seen during the 2000s, and therefore starts will moderate in the coming year if demand trails off as expected,†Mr. Kavcic said in a note to clients.

Mr. Rocca recently listed two semi-detached houses on one popular street. Another listed a third on the same street, which rarely has any houses for sale, let alone three almost at the same time.

Along with the rise in listings, mortgage rates have edged up and some first-time buyers may have been priced out of the market, Mr. Rocca says. Meanwhile, many prospective buyers who secured a pre-approved mortgage with lenders are anxious to buy a house before the financing offer expires.

With market dynamics changing, Mr. Rocca says that sellers are beginning to realize they may not fetch the same price for a property that their neighbour received two months ago when listings were scarce.

He turns down listings when the sellers press to set an asking price that is too unrealistically high.

“I don’t need an overpriced listing just sitting there.â€

Mr. Rocca is also less likely to recommend that sellers hold off buyers until a specified time – particularly when the asking price is more than $1-million.

Paul Johnston of Right at Home Realty is also increasingly likely to recommend that sellers consider an offer as soon as a buyer is willing to make one.

Last week he listed a house on Ridley Boulevard which sold within two days.

“We didn’t even hold the open house.â€

Mr. Johnston says that buyers who have long been frustrated by the shortage of appealing properties on the market are finally feeling more hopeful.

“If someone wants it they can come and get it without having to play the game,†he says. “There’s optimism among buyers that they may finally get a property that doesn’t have 13 offers on it.â€

Buyers who are committed to the search, he says, are active on a daily basis. Many have their finances in line and they will move quickly.

“They’ll be on your listing faster than you can blink.â€

Also, listings are mushrooming so quickly that sellers who list a house and then decline to look at offers for a week are risking the chance that competing properties will arrive and siphon off bidders.

Single-family houses that are nicely renovated and located in a good neighbourhood are still selling briskly, he says. Investment properties that have been kept in top shape and which provide a steady income are also selling quickly.

“These are still two beasts where buyers are willing to extend themselves.â€

Looking out to the fall, many market watchers are expecting a slower pace of sales.

Mr. Rocca, who is still hearing from lots of homeowners who are asking him to evaluate their property, expects the next six weeks to be hectic. He says the market may be slower in the fall, but it should remain fairly strong.

In between, he hopes to catch up on some rest if the typical summer lowdown arrives.

“I’m looking forward to July.â€

 

[urbandreamer]

Checking MLS yesterday I was shocked at the number of listings, particularly in the condo market. In one City Place building, there's over 30 listings! You know how when you zoom in on mls map it says "cannot display because there's more than 500 listings"? Well, for the first time ever, you zoom in tight over just City Place area alone and it says that.

Big crash coming.

 

[JayBee]

Checking MLS yesterday I was shocked at the number of listings, particularly in the condo market. In one City Place building, there's over 30 listings! You know how when you zoom in on mls map it says "cannot display because there's more than 500 listings"? Well, for the first time ever, you zoom in tight over just City Place area alone and it says that.

Big crash coming.

Cityplace is always like that though. There's ridiculously high turnover in that neighbourhood. I wouldn't call a bit of a price correction a "big crash" but I am amused by your predictions nonetheless.

 

[CN Tower]

Cityplace is always like that though. There's ridiculously high turnover in that neighbourhood. I wouldn't call a bit of a price correction a "big crash" but I am amused by your predictions nonetheless.

JayBee (agent):

Urban Dreamer`s post indicates `for the first time ever`. That signifies that it is `not always like that`and in fact has never happened before.

I am amused by your overconfidence in a market that has been sideswiped by the new mortgage rules that came into effect recently and are stifling sales dramatically.

 

[JayBee]

JayBee (agent):

Urban Dreamer`s post indicates `for the first time ever`. That signifies that it is `not always like that`and in fact has never happened before.

I am amused by your overconfidence in a market that has been sideswiped by the new mortgage rules that came into effect recently and are stifling sales dramatically.

I'll give you the "LOL" you were looking for.

 

[Polkaroo]

Checking MLS yesterday I was shocked at the number of listings, particularly in the condo market. In one City Place building, there's over 30 listings! You know how when you zoom in on mls map it says "cannot display because there's more than 500 listings"? Well, for the first time ever, you zoom in tight over just City Place area alone and it says that.

I've noticed a huge increase in MLS dots too, not only for condo sales but ones for rent too. I've been looking mostly at the Yonge/Sheppard, Yonge/Finch, Bayview/Sheppard areas and they have definitely been getting more numerous in the last few months. We should start seeing price drops soon, both by sellers and landlords.

 

[interested]

I've noticed a huge increase in MLS dots too, not only for condo sales but ones for rent too. I've been looking mostly at the Yonge/Sheppard, Yonge/Finch, Bayview/Sheppard areas and they have definitely been getting more numerous in the last few months. We should start seeing price drops soon, both by sellers and landlords.

Prices are actually down $50-$100 from their peak earlier this year on 1 bedrooms/1 bedroom dens. However, this is down from the $50-100 rise over the end of last year so prices are essentially flat the last 1-2 years or minimally down. I agree you may see some price drops(both rent/sale) in the next few months. but don't expect major reductions on rent at least since most landlords can carry at these rates and will give small but unlikely large breaks.

 

[Polkaroo]

Here's another article with some more info:


Toronto existing home sales fall by 23 per cent in June

Robert Ede calls it “buyer’s revenge.”

After more than a decade of an unprecedented bull market in Toronto real estate, sales are cooling off. On Tuesday the Toronto Real Estate board reported a second consecutive monthly drop in sales for the year.

“In the old days the vendor called the shots. It was do you want the property or not? Because we have a lot of other people lined up for it,” said Ede, an agent with Remax. “Now buyers are saying I’m going to think about it – and you better give me a good deal.”

Price appreciation moving forward is expected to get softer. For one thing, there is also more new supply in the pipeline, with Toronto residential building permits up by 22 per cent in April over May according to figures released Tuesday by Statistics Canada. Most of that was represented by condominium building, which has remained strong in the Toronto area market.

Rest of the article: http://www.yourhome.ca/homes/reales...isting-home-sales-fall-by-23-per-cent-in-june

 

[myfive]

JayBee (agent):

I am amused by your overconfidence in a market that has been sideswiped by the new mortgage rules that came into effect recently and are stifling sales dramatically.

I don't think they want to crash the market. We just had mortgage rates go down. The market was just running a bit fast early spring but seems under control now. However, location will be the key. Not all areas will perform equally well going forward. The best areas will continue to go up.

 

[interested]

I don't think they want to crash the market. We just had mortgage rates go down. The market was just running a bit fast early spring but seems under control now. However, location will be the key. Not all areas will perform equally well going forward. The best areas will continue to go up.

Agree with a caveat. Not all areas will go up. Location is key but don't expect any significant rises even in the "best areas" unless there is no product available in the area. I suspect rather best areas will continue to hold where less desirable areas and oversupplied less desirable areas will correct downwards.

 

[kondoz]

Agree with a caveat. Not all areas will go up. Location is key but don't expect any significant rises even in the "best areas" unless there is no product available in the area. I suspect rather best areas will continue to hold where less desirable areas and oversupplied less desirable areas will correct downwards.

agreed again. I don't see any kind of correction in the best locations. Just a slowdown in appreciation.

 

[simuls]

Even in the best locations, there will be a correction, just not as pronounced. I fully expect at least a 10% drop in the best locations (with a faster uptick when all is said and done) and closer to 20-30% in the worst - and there are some really really bad ones out there.

 

[Shtopor]

RE is going down, Van, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto all reported slower sales with increasing inventories. Those who own RE ( especially those who bought recently)may say to each other whatever they want, but hard numbers are hard to ignore,
realtors do telegraph on NET that something is brewing. Nobody expects prices to drop next day after sales drop and inventories
grow, but give it a time and price cuts will follow. If US experience didn't teach lessons to those who bought recently, then they are destined to part with money. Writing is there (US) for more then 3 years, ignoring it was not just unwise but stupid.

 

[Polkaroo]

But many people argue that "Canada is different", it could never happen here.

 

[simuls]

Ours is a home grown bubble for very different reasons and will be nowhere near what theirs has been...and I'm a pessimist with regards to this.