[ProjectEnd]

$21M in land, $15+M in softs, application fees, loan fees, etc., [minimum] $40M in hards, $2M contingency. [At the very least] that's almost $80M total for 70 new units without any profit (lenders won't even look at you for less than a 10% IRR and will make that threshold higher if you're unproven). Never mind whatever you may have to do to the existing building as well...

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Why?

It's not a great design in my opinion.

 

[Northern Light]

Curious: when people say the number of units doesn’t cover the cost of the lot what price point do they think the units will go for?

Above (but after your post) @ProjectEnd delves more into the costs..........his outline produces a break-even of about 1.14M per unit. (no profit)

That business plan isn't going to get you financed, the lenders don't care so much if you make money, but they want sufficient contingency/value that they don't lose any....

ROI can vary widely from ~12% to 20%, apply that to the above and you require an average selling price well in excess of 1.3M per unit, or if building rental that's the luxury segment.

Those prices are not realistic based on what's proposed, at least in the current market.

 

[rdaner]

Above (but after your post) @ProjectEnd delves more into the costs..........his outline produces a break-even of about 1.14M per unit. (no profit)

That business plan isn't going to get you financed, the lenders don't care so much if you make money, but they want sufficient contingency/value that they don't lose any....

ROI can vary widely from ~12% to 20%, apply that to the above and you require an average selling price well in excess of 1.3M per unit, or if building rental that's the luxury segment.

Those prices are not realistic based on what's proposed, at least in the current market.

Great! I am curious because the average price for housing in The (real) Annex is quite high and if sold at $1.5-4m the numbers look a bit different. I can see Spadina Road north of Bloor becoming a bit like Avenue Road.

 

[1Ć0]

Great! I am curious because the average price for housing in The (real) Annex is quite high and if sold at $1.5-4m the numbers look a bit different. I can see Spadina Road north of Bloor becoming a bit like Avenue Road.

The question is - can you sell a 500 sf unit for $1.5m here (@ roughly $3,000/sf)? This isn't a 1 Roxborough situation based on how Prowinko has demised the units.

Freed is really trying at Adelaide and Duncan... but that's about $2,000/sf. And I think he sold like 20 units?

 

[rdaner]

The question is - can you sell a 500 sf unit for $1.5m here (@ roughly $3,000/sf)? This isn't a 1 Roxborough situation based on how Prowinko has demised the units.

Freed is really trying at Adelaide and Duncan... but that's about $2,000/sf. And I think he sold like 20 units?

Great points! Another feature that may affect this in the inevitable rezoning is the fact that it is within 800m of a station which hasn’t been fully utilized in this initial iteration. For example they could easily bulk up and increase by several storeys.

 

[Northern Light]

Another feature that may affect this in the inevitable rezoning is the fact that it is within 800m of a station which hasn’t been fully utilized in this initial iteration. For example they could easily bulk up and increase by several storeys.

Not really. For a number of reasons.

First off, the FSI prescribed for this area under MTSA is only 2.0, this proposal is nearly 6.0. Not that that 2 is a hard limit nor is the 6, but you can't really rely on the MTSA here for unlimited height.

There really is no immediate precedent for substantially higher when getting north of Bloor.

****

There's also the matter of structure........supporting a bigger box likely requires larger structural supports, for which there is a lack of space.

A higher box will also create larger shadow issues which may create problems.

Adding more floors, if it were otherwise permissible and workable is also only useful in one of two scenarios, one where units sell like hotcakes at the currently likely price (not likely); or where it results in one's ability to drive down cost per ft2 on the build and price more competitively.......that would be a struggle here.

 

[Doppleganger]

Bravo to the developer for increasing densification while at the same time showing exceptional sensitivity to the existing heritage structure! As for the design itself, well, it is a glass box. Hmmm...now where have I seen that before??

 

[rdaner]

Not really. For a number of reasons.

First off, the FSI prescribed for this area under MTSA is only 2.0, this proposal is nearly 6.0. Not that that 2 is a hard limit nor is the 6, but you can't really rely on the MTSA here for unlimited height.

There really is no immediate precedent for substantially higher when getting north of Bloor.

****

There's also the matter of structure........supporting a bigger box likely requires larger structural supports, for which there is a lack of space.

A higher box will also create larger shadow issues which may create problems.

Adding more floors, if it were otherwise permissible and workable is also only useful in one of two scenarios, one where units sell like hotcakes at the currently likely price (not likely); or where it results in one's ability to drive down cost per ft2 on the build and price more competitively.......that would be a struggle here.

Good points and you are correct about existing precedents but aren’t there a few high-rise buildings already approved? And there are a few higher apartment buildings on the west side of Spadina.

And is the lack of precedents a real deterrent?

 

[Northern Light]

Good points and you are correct about existing precedents but aren’t there a few high-rise buildings already proposed? And there are a few higher apartment buildings on the west side of Spadina.

And is the lack of precedents a real deterrent?

From the Block Context Plan:

When you read the above, you need to do so understanding that A, B, and C are the tangible precedents, but also that there will be an assumption that heights will transition downwards as you get further from Bloor.

Functionally this is already attempting to be a new precedent for height, with no practical support.

There's no basis there to go higher, for now, anyways.

 

[rdaner]

From the Block Context Plan:

View attachment 575604

View attachment 575605

When you read the above, you need to do so understanding that A, B, and C are the tangible precedents, but also that there will be an assumption that heights will transition downwards as you get further from Bloor.

Functionally this is already attempting to be a new precedent for height, with no practical support.

There's no basis there to go higher, for now, anyways.

I see. I will only add that many (myself included) will see Spadina Road as an entity in and of itself whose heights should correspond to its function as an increasingly busy arterial rather than as an access point to the surrounding sfh as you would see in suburban planning. Who, besides low rise residents, assume future development will decrease away from Bloor/Dupont and for what reason? And we haven’t even broached ground floor uses? Retail? Restos and cafés?

And now I’m worried about the effect that this will have on Margaret! This might just do her in!

Btw this addition reminds me of 1980s hotels in the former East Bloc!

 

[rdaner]

Anyways I have aggravated NL enough so my job is done! And I would grant them 20 more storeys if they agreed to incorporate a library worthy of The Annex! Why can’t the ARA gripe about that?

 

[RickyBobby]

This is as close to a self storage facility as I can fathom without being an actual self storage facility. Tragic.

 

[allengeorge]

I’m not convinced by the points on FSI or that heights should trend downwards North of Bloor. But, there may be points I’m not seeing - so, happy to learn.

BUT, I totally buy that the existing design does render the current units unlivable, and this seems really unworkable financially.

Which leads me to my question: why is Prowinko doing this? They had that crazy proposal at Bay that everyone knew was unbuildable, and now this one? Do they just enjoy throwing money out the door? Zone and flip - just less competently than Kingsett? Masochism? A surrealistic art project? What?

 

[Northern Light]

I’m not convinced by the points on FSI or that heights should trend downwards North of Bloor. But, there may be points I’m not seeing - so, happy to learn.

BUT, I totally buy that the existing design does render the current units unlivable, and this seems really unworkable financially.

Which leads me to my question: why is Prowinko doing this? They had that crazy proposal at Bay that everyone knew was unbuildable, and now this one? Do they just enjoy throwing money out the door? Zone and flip - just less competently than Kingsett? Masochism? A surrealistic art project? What?

Good question!

And if you knew more about what they've done, you might be even more baffled!