• Thread starter Suicidal Gingerbread Man
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btw there is no data / facts behind the article ... there is no sign this has happened yet .. but I'm fairly sure it will : - )

I just want to point out whenever there is a building boom, there is an article just like the above.


Do you guys remember the building boom of about 5 years ago or so (i.e. Telus / RBC / BA/ ...) there were a bunch of articles like the above saying we'd have 12%+ vacancy in 2013 : )


Just to be clear I'm not saying it will or will not happen, but these articles are very silly and baseless .....
 
There is approx. 40mln sq.ft. of Class A-AAA office space in the Downtown (College to the lake, River to Bathurst but really just Financial Core and South Core). So yes even if the buildings were delivered 50% occupied the vacancy would go just above 10%.
 
Yes but no one quotes AAA vacancy rates ... they quote the vacancy rate for the entire market, the downtown core (the greater core) has 75+ million.

BTW these buildings will not be delivered empty ... or anywhere close to it, the fear should be in existing older office buildings. Moreover, likely the older class C/B buildings because if you assume a lot of inventory is indeed coming to the market and rental rates will drop, it makes A+ office buildings more attractive to tenants.


Some of the older AAA office buildings are already starting to market the space that will be able in 2015/6 due to these new buildings !
 
taal said:
btw there is no data / facts behind the article ... there is no sign this has happened yet .. but I'm fairly sure it will : - )

I just want to point out whenever there is a building boom, there is an article just like the above.


Do you guys remember the building boom of about 5 years ago or so (i.e. Telus / RBC / BA/ ...) there were a bunch of articles like the above saying we'd have 12%+ vacancy in 2013 : )


Just to be clear I'm not saying it will or will not happen, but these articles are very silly and baseless .....
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After that building boom Commerce Court West sat half empty for a few years. Granted they used the time to remove the asbestos etc. but I wouldn't have wanted to be GWL through that. Oxford moved into RBC Plaza to fill space not because they wanted to get out of 130 adelaide. TD Centre hasn't totally gotten over Dexia/Royal Trust leaving. Again making the best of a bad situation...
 
Yes and hopefully landlords of learnt there lessons from the 80s/90s.

So Commerce Court and the TD plaza buildings actually nearly recovered from all the buildings that came online in the last mini boom (i.e. BA / RBC / Telus / ...) the large blocks for lease in these buildings now are for the next upcoming set of buildings under construction.

Honestly Toronto recovered better then anyone could have dreamed from the last mini boom. I'm surprised that article didn't ring bells for many, as there weren't just 1 or 2, but a ton (and many from the US) stating how in 2013/14 Toronto's office vacancy in the core would be 12%+ ... clearly that never happened ...

But I cannot see that happening again (i.e. absorbing so much of the new and old space), the market is slowing and there is about 6 million in new space coming to the market, I think only about 40% of that is taken, but keep in mind that still means that 40% sits empty in existing office stock. Firms do very very little growth, I say this because they are much more efficient in newer buildings and the space per employee is quite a bit lower.


I think it'll be an interesting 5 years for the commercial market. That's what seeing new proposals like this; Its hard to fathem they'll start any time soon.
 
Some of our major corporations are reducing their staff by 10 to 15% while the competition are exploding with growth. Strange times indeed. I think there is room for additional towers. The downtown condo boom is having an impact. Even a satelite office full of densely packed hoteling stations adds to the inventory. Any viable surburban based office now needs one.

Like the hotel boom, closures and conversions are not out of the question. Anything is possible when Scotia Plaza has a full floor boutique hotel and the Standard Life Tower across from the Exchange Tower contains apartments. More people living downtown potentially means more high end services occupying offices spaces. Not the best example but, Plastic Surgury comes to mind.
 
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I'm pretty sure it's gone as well.

What I think you'll see happen is the lower quality A class buildings will run into leasing issues and rental rates will fall. The exchange tower will be one of the ones hit with the TSX moving to 100 Adelaide. It won't be the "Exchange" tower anymore (though I doubt the name will change). RBC Plaza (which already has a hard time), Commerce court, TD Centre and all of the York St. Buildings will have a hard time. That is why you see so many of them doing so much work right now. Standard Life was sold at a very opportune time (or bought at a terrible time)
 
Well, a lot of work is happening on the older building for the same reason that a lot new buildings are going up: money is cheap right now, and it will never be cheaper to do a big construction project.
 
ShonTron said:
Ushahid:

For your information, here at Urban Toronto we prefer proper spelling, grammar and syntax. We also like thoughtful posts. You might also want to change your signature as it makes me hungry. Thanks!
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im sorry for the spellings. I know I suck at grammar and syntax because im an immigrant and Im still learning English. just moved to Canada 1 year ago.
 
Mithras said:
I'm pretty sure it's gone as well.

What I think you'll see happen is the lower quality A class buildings will run into leasing issues and rental rates will fall. The exchange tower will be one of the ones hit with the TSX moving to 100 Adelaide. It won't be the "Exchange" tower anymore (though I doubt the name will change). RBC Plaza (which already has a hard time), Commerce court, TD Centre and all of the York St. Buildings will have a hard time. That is why you see so many of them doing so much work right now. Standard Life was sold at a very opportune time (or bought at a terrible time)
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RBC Plazza in on hard times ??? What are you talking about, both buildings are just about 100% leased and long term ! Out of all the old AAA office buildings in the core, they've struggled the least by far !
 
ushahid said:
im sorry for the spellings. I know I suck at grammar and syntax because im an immigrant and Im still learning English. just moved to Canada 1 year ago.
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Don't worry too much about your mistakes. Most of us don't mind errors of that sort. If I may offer some advice, observe closely some of the posters who write clearly and persuasively. Try to imitate them and you will learn very quickly. Another good idea would be to try to figure out the answers to some of your more straightforward questions before you actually post them. Google can be very helpful in that connection.

PS, I lived for a year when I was a boy in a country where I did not speak the language. I think I understand what you are going through, at least in part.
 
here's an image posted by Fastwalking over at SSC, gives an indication of the scale of the site.....if the information is correct...

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