First, the flood protections only go up to the new yard. Anything north of basically the Prince Edward Viaduct would need to be flood proofed, which will probably be more expensive than what's currently done.
That being said, while I might've been overdramatic when it came to the cost, the point at the end is that its not
that cheap and in the end Richmond Hill RER will likely be of a significantly worse value for the reasons I'll explain later. My 6 Billion really comes from the money it would take to completely revamp the alignment that would make it a somewhat decent RER line, which includes buying out parts of the CP Mainline and introducing a new ROW somewhere at the top of the Don Valley, and the reason for that is outlined below.
Change semi-express to express, and your statement is good. Here's the deal, The reason why Richmond Hill RER isn't on Metrolinx's radar is not only because of the track sharing issues north of Doncaster, its because the line would make for a horrible RER line, and I'm saying this as someone who lives near the Richmond Hill line, and would theoretically benefit from a Richmond Hill RER. The most important part of any RER line is to not only be fast for long distance trips, but to also travel in a corridor where tons of residences and locations can be easily served, where connections can easily be made to other lines and to be a backbone for a regional transit network. Let's use the Barrie Line as an example. While at the moment stops are extremely few and far between, it is currently planned to have several different interchanges with different rapid transit routes. Caledonia Station will have a direct connection with Line 5, Downsview Park already has a direct connection to Line 1, Lansdowne will be a good connection to Line 2, and there is a proposal to eventually build a station at Highway 7 called Concord to connect to Viva Orange and the 407 Transitway. This ultimately means that if someone lives in vaughan and wants to visit someone in Northern Toronto, they can get to the Barrie Line, travel down to Caledonia, then easily transfer to Line 5 and travel east, or if they want to get to High Park, they can travel to Lansdowne and transfer to Line 2 and travel west. You can even eventually add stations at St. Clair to connect to the 512, and you can keep going. On top of having good access to interchanges, it is found on a straight developable corridor which you can TOD meaning that you can get people that live on the line and with the transfers, can commute to many parts of the city and the greater region. Part of the reason why Kirby GO makes some sense (even if it is ultimately really really silly) is that theoretically with a Kirby GO, you can create a major TOD corridor along Keele Street that is backed by the close proximity to the Barrie Line, and create a transit - development relationship that Yonge Street has with the Yonge Line as an example.
The same exact things can be said for the Stouffville and Kitchener Lines, however cannot be said with the Richmond Hill Line. By being situated at the bottom of the valley, transfers to any other lines basically become impossible. Want to transfer to Line 2? Pony up a ton of money for a Gondola or a Funicular so that you have a transfer that nobody will end up using because of how long it takes. Ontario Line? Forget about it. Eglinton is a very strong
maybe for feasibility but its hard to say due to the extremely sensitive environmental area, so what you're left with is at best a status quo which is a 1 stop shuttle between Line 4 and Union which, isn't great. The position at the bottom of the valley also means development is impossible. You can't build infill stations because with the exception of maybe the Evergreen Brickworks, there is no place to build anything that would need a station to reach it. You will basically end up with a Frequent Electrified Rail line that purposefully avoids every development in the area en route to downtown Toronto which would be very strange to say the least.
Finally let's talk travel time. The position at the bottom of the valley means that trains have to travel slowly. Unlike the other GO lines which (for the most part) run on straight track that theoretically lets the trains press down the gas and go WEEEE, movement through the valley requires trains to run fairly slowly, around 70km/h to not derail. This makes travel times extremely slow compared to its counter parts. Richmond Hill GO is situated just north of Major Mackenzie Drive. Travel time to Union? 45 mins. Maple GO is also situated just north of Major Mackenzie. Travel time to Union? 30 mins (Pre covid, rn its 35 mins because of Davenport Diamond Construction). To be even more embarrassing, travel time to Union from Langstaff: 40 mins. Travel time to Union from Langstaff via Viva Blue: 57 mins, and that's on a bus + a subway with frequent stop spacing. With the Yonge North extension, travel times being generous would be cut to 50 mins, and if you include the fact that most workers have to transfer to Line 1 from Union Station and walk a long way to get to the subway, basically means that for a good chunk of commuters, the Yonge Line will be as fast as the status quo Richmond Hill GO line despite the former having a ton of intermediate stops, and the latter only have 2 intermediate stops.
All of this is to say that
@nfitz idea for the Ontario Line actually ain't that bad. The biggest issue with the Richmond Hill line is the Don Valley section south of Oriole, however north of Oriole the corridor wouldn't be that bad as a frequent RT corridor. OL sharing the line north of Oriole means that rush hour commuters that need to head to the downtown core of Union Station still have the Richmond Hill Line as an express-to-downtown serve meanwhile commuters to areas other than downtown Toronto, or off peak travelers to different areas around the city still have the Ontario Line for convenient transfers and more local transit service. I think at the end of the day though the current Yonge North plans are still the most logical when it comes to the perspective of a regional network. Richmond Hill Centre is going to be a massive regional hub with many different BRT lines converging including the 407 transitway. The areas around the land are already slated for tons of high density development and if built would definitely quickly become an extremely used station on the network. As a valuable regional hub it only makes sense to directly to the other major nodes in the region such as Midtown Toronto and North York Centre. Yonge North being built means that in the distant future when the 407 Transitway is built that allows for passengers and commuters to quickly travel across the region and reach important nodes Yonge North by just directly transferring to the Yonge Line rather than transfer to the Ontario Line, then transfer to the Sheppard Line before reaching North York Centre (or use the bus which sounds even more awkward and less appealing).
There is a reason people constantly make fun of the Richmond Hill line, and why it has the bad rep that it has. It really is in a lot of ways the Black Sheep of the GO network and not in a good way. I believe in the IBC Metrolinx put it themselves that the Richmond Hill Line has no future in RER whatsoever, and there's a good reason for that. The Richmond Hill line while it is a decent peak hour downtowner service, would make for a terrible RER service unless a major change in allignment with a new ROW and everything, which would cost so much money that it probably isn't worth it.