Yes, it will be difficult for the vendor to achieve real-world ridership of that capacity. From the below report it appears achieving high-quality high-frequency service requires running capacity quite a bit beyond what ridership requires. So, a 30kpphpd ridership might required running capacity for 36k; that's tight on small trains.
Great source.
I extracted the rush-hour headways and the design capacities for a) lines designed for headways shorter than 2 min, and b) lines designed for 2-min headways:
Lille Lines 1 and 2 ::: 66 sec / 11,000 pphpd
Paris Line 14 ::: 85 sec / 25,000 pphpd
Rennes Line A ::: 100 sec / 6,000 pphpd
Toulouse Lines A and B ::: 80 sec / 7,000 pphpd
Copenhagen Lines 1 and 2 ::: 2 min / 12,000 pphpd
Lyon Line D ::: 2 min / 15,000 pphpd
Paris Line 1 ::: 2 min / 25,000 pphpd
Taipei Wenhu Line ::: 2 min / 28,400 pphpd
Vancouver Expo Line ::: 2 min / 16,000 pphpd
Vancouver Millenium Line ::: 2 min / 15,000 pphpd
The trend is low-ish capacity for lines with 2-min headways, and even lower for lines with < 2 min headways.
The only outlier is Paris Line 14, with 85 sec headways and designed for a solid 25,000 pphpd. That's still less than 29,000-34,000 contemplated for the Ontario Line.
So, 34k per hour per direction isn't outright impossible with smaller trains, but technical challenges are likely to arise. Fixing those challenges by using wider or longer trains might defeat the purpose of selecting the new route for the OL. The expected savings (compared to the mostly-underground option) are likely contingent on the ability to use smaller stations and handle tight turns.