Rainforest
Senior Member
50+ years from the opening day, i.e. 57+ years from now, is a very bold prediction in any case. In fact, accurately predicting the ridership in 20 years isn't very easy.
- Thread starter JasonParis
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50+ years from the opening day, i.e. 57+ years from now, is a very bold prediction in any case. In fact, accurately predicting the ridership in 20 years isn't very easy.
44 North
Senior Member
To be fair Eglinton West is in a trench, then surrounded by expressway (which I guess is much worse). Still though I personally won't cast aspersions onto residents opposed to anything elevated. We really haven't seen much of it here in a long time and that close to people. TYSSE had sections 2km from any residents then through industrial areas and no elevated. And I've been on UT long enough to see posters (who actually know and understand transit), and be absolutely opposed to the mere mention of elevated. Even just a bridge. Kills development, doesn't work in winter, impossible, here's a photo of a turn-of-the-century EL in Chicago and NY which is exactly how it's built today, etc,etc. Noticed those posters are absent from the OL discussions...
But ultimately this Ontario Line stuff is very conceptual. It's basically a doodle from one guy at Metrolinx. I'm surprised they're even having meetings since it's so early in its planning.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
I've attached the slides that you folk are probably most interested in. No noteworthy news elsewhere in the presentation:
RFQ is scheduled for Spring 2020. Given the recent troubles with the P3 procurement of the Hamilton LRT, RER Electrification and the FWLRT, this sounds fanciful. I'm not certain if we've ever seen Metrolinx pull off an RFQ so quickly.
No new information here, but there they are again throwing around that "90 second" headway number. I hope they're not building 90 second headways into their capacity assumptions.
Pay attention to the phrasing here. Ontario Line will likely use a mix of below-grade, at-grade and above-grade structures. Key word there being, "likely". Do they even know which segments will be underground or elevated? In the Business Case Analysis, they presented the grade separations across the line as being certain (at least that was my impression). This phrasing indicates that they haven't even determined that much yet. Is the Ontario Line anything more than a vague line on a map at this stage? This really shouldn't surprise any of us though, there were little concrete facts in the BSA; just a whole lot of marketing jibber jabber.
Admittedly, this might just be some wonky phrasing put together by an intern.
So it appears that the location of the MSF is presently undetermined. Metrolinx is merely looking at a "number of candidate areas north of Pape Station". This is a new development. In the BCA, Metrolinx had identified a specific location at Thorncliffe Park as the "potential MSF location". A number of members here had pointed out that the MSF location identified in the BCA was physically impossible. Looks like they might have been right about that.
RFQ is scheduled for Spring 2020. Given the recent troubles with the P3 procurement of the Hamilton LRT, RER Electrification and the FWLRT, this sounds fanciful. I'm not certain if we've ever seen Metrolinx pull off an RFQ so quickly.
No new information here, but there they are again throwing around that "90 second" headway number. I hope they're not building 90 second headways into their capacity assumptions.
Pay attention to the phrasing here. Ontario Line will likely use a mix of below-grade, at-grade and above-grade structures. Key word there being, "likely". Do they even know which segments will be underground or elevated? In the Business Case Analysis, they presented the grade separations across the line as being certain (at least that was my impression). This phrasing indicates that they haven't even determined that much yet. Is the Ontario Line anything more than a vague line on a map at this stage? This really shouldn't surprise any of us though, there were little concrete facts in the BSA; just a whole lot of marketing jibber jabber.
Admittedly, this might just be some wonky phrasing put together by an intern.
So it appears that the location of the MSF is presently undetermined. Metrolinx is merely looking at a "number of candidate areas north of Pape Station". This is a new development. In the BCA, Metrolinx had identified a specific location at Thorncliffe Park as the "potential MSF location". A number of members here had pointed out that the MSF location identified in the BCA was physically impossible. Looks like they might have been right about that.
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
You find it merely a little questionable? Short of Toronto's population growth completely stalling, I can't see any situation in which this would be true. I can't imagine that anyone with any technical knowledge of the project would sign off on such a statement.
denfromoakvillemilton
Senior Member
seems it was busy
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
North of Pape station could be interpreted as any site along said portion of the line. It wouldn't exclude somewhere in Thorncliffe.
Well, I can see scenarios where it can stay within (e.g. truncated line terminating at Eglinton). I can't imagine it would stay that way should it go north of that. But they wouldn't care - who's going to sue or blame them for it?
AoD
Northern Light
Superstar
I was one of those posters making that point.
That was one of the concerns I raised with staff; the non-answer I got back suggested:
a) Those attending the mtg aren't in the loop on the project
Or
b) Metrolinx has no @#$# clue where this thing is going to go or how they will resolve the problem.
That completely precludes going to the RFP stage and maybe even RFQ in so far it makes any in-service date impossible to determine
and leaves open vary wide cost variables on this one point alone.
Hardly the only one.
Rainforest
Senior Member
I am in favor of elevated transit in general, it just should be designed properly, not to look like a bland concrete slab.
However, the Thorncliffe and Flemingdon folks do have a point if we compare their situation with what's planned for Eglinton West. Eglinton West could be elevated almost entirely (maybe except a short section near Martin Grove where it crosses the hydro wires), or it could just run at grade, but the Ford government wants to tunnel it west of Royal York. If so, then why not tunnel the Ontario line that will have much higher ridership than Eglinton West ..
However, the Thorncliffe and Flemingdon folks do have a point if we compare their situation with what's planned for Eglinton West. Eglinton West could be elevated almost entirely (maybe except a short section near Martin Grove where it crosses the hydro wires), or it could just run at grade, but the Ford government wants to tunnel it west of Royal York. If so, then why not tunnel the Ontario line that will have much higher ridership than Eglinton West ..
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
Obviously what strikes me here is the level of the uncertainty in the language used. They haven't identified an MSF location. They don't even know which segments will be underground or elevated (or if they'll even be elevated or at-grade segments). How crebdile can the $7 Billion price estimation be if they haven't even nailed down these most basic of project specifications?
Can't emphasize enough that the Ontario Line, as proposed today, appears to be nothing more than a vague line on the map. Expect whatever the private sector proposes to look dramatically different than what was presented to us in the BCA.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Metrolinx has burned its' credibility up regarding public realm and design with Davenport project. AFAIK I wouldn't trust a word of theirs on this aspect.
That's exactly what I mean - though there is a good case for elevated since it will require a bridge to get there anyways; plus certain alignments (like along Overlea) would be fairly insensitive. Ditto Don Mills - and I suspect they will have to go underground there anyways.
AoD
Northern Light
Superstar
Answer: The estimate is not credible in any way, shape or form. The timeline is no less un-credible.
A given.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
From what you can see in the slides, they didn't present anything that looked like anything.
AoD
TheTigerMaster
Superstar
They seem to have done no work whatsoever since the Ontario Line was first proposed. No wonder the Infrastructure Ontario President is resining.
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
I would imagine quite the opposite - they would have done things - financial and engineering analysis, etc. - but of course, that's all sensitive info because they have to go the P3 route, so nothing to see there, right?
This ia about as meaningless a public meeting as you can get.AoD
Towered
Superstar
A 4 year construction timetable?
Northern Light, did you happen to catch a whiff of snake oil?
Northern Light, did you happen to catch a whiff of snake oil?