innsertnamehere
Superstar
I’m not trying to go down the rabbit hole of determining exact costs of the garage and its lifetime subsidy which may or may not be there, just stating that without details from the province we have no idea of the investment here and how much the province is spending vs. Therme, especially when you break down how a lot of what the province is spending is very much to public benefit (science centre, park upgrades, etc).To take this in chunks:
A 400M (potential) cash out lay is proposed.
Assuming the government borrows that money (since it reports being in deficit we must assume that this would be contributing to same), we have to look at the government's borrowing cost on that investment.
Currently, the government of Ontario is borrowing money at 4.6%. If you amortize the repayment over 25 years, this adds 67% to your all-in cost.
ie. 1M borrowed would see 1.67M repaid over 25 years.
Even at 190M in direct capital cost you'd be looking at ~ 317M in total cost. One must then add annual operating costs such as maintence, staff, payment fees to credit cards, property tax, if applicable etc.
There is no way that anything less than 400M in gross revenue over that period would achieve a break-even position.
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Now lets add, I find it highly improbably that the parking will be full every single day of the year, that would be a both a phenomenal business achievement but also very dysfunctional as it would mean customers being turned away every day.
If $15M in gross revenue were optimal as suggested above, I would think a reasonable assumption would be 70% occupancy when factored over 365 days.
That would suggest annual gross revenue of 10.5M On a constant dollar basis, that wouldn't repay the parking for 38 years. (using the 400M number)
I confess to disliking Live Nation's plans as well....... but I digress.
There appears to be sufficient parking on site to meet the needs of all existing users and the historic demand of Ontario Place which should not reasonably be greater than the parklands.
Only 'new tenants' can justify the investment, and you're limited then to Therme and the OSC.
On this we can definitely agree.
The existing science centre has a couple thousand parking spaces in its own right. Given the smaller size and better transit access of Ontario Place I expect it to be lower demand here.. but at the very least hundreds of spaces are needed for the science centre alone.