I have an eerie feeling that we're about to get a new Bay-Adelaide Stump.

Due to the pandemic, offices the world over are instituting systems to work from home and will by necessity have to make this a part of the new normal for what they probably expect will be temporary. But if this pandemic goes on for as long as epidemiologists are projecting (up to 18-24 months until a vaccine), then this is going to become the new status quo and I expect many companies to adopt it permanently, which will have a significant impact on office space vacancies.

Secondly, the inevitable recession or depression that will no doubt take hold while the world economy is ground to a halt, will do to this new tower what the recession in the 90s did to the first one.

Thoughts?

A premature conclusion.

The space under construction is not speculative; it's leased.

The anchor tenant in this case, is a large Canadian Bank, one that needs the space, was consolidating suburban and downtown sites here, and one which is growing.

The very low commercial vacancy rate does not indicate a likihood of a commercial office market collapse.

It's entirely reasonable to expect some shift, and some slow down.

But SB and many other companies have already shifted to 'agile space' without private offices with many staff who don't keep rigid office hours.

Yes, this will probably accelerate that trend........but if you shave 10% off projected demand 5 years out in Toronto, you will get greater space needs than you have today.

Certainly this may stall some of the pre-construction projects; we really have to see how long this lasts and whether productivity of WFH employees holds up too.

But given what I know to be in the pipeline and whose searching out space and how much, i think this is likely more deferral of some demand than squashing it.

If the latter, it's more likely to be due to catastrophic economic damage than a large-scale shift to WFH.

But that's all just a guess; we'll know, after the fact.
 
Agreed that the longer term impact on the market is unclear; but in looking at the commercial real estate market and demand for office space, I personally don't see any pent up demand being unleashed (at best a return to normal), and I do see potential for all of this WFH to shift demand downwards for office space, if employers really embrace WFH and the space savings it can bring. I don't think anyone really knows what that future looks like right now, which is certainly causing some uncertainty in trying to underwrite buildings, and I"m sure in evaluating development economics.

I think the pent up demand (for ICI land) comes from when sites like this one pause construction, plus the fact that the vacancy rate continues downwards in recent reports. I don't see everyone working from home only in the future, but perhaps you're right and that will be more of the status quo for more businesses.
 
Not to continue off topic but it’s that second part where the additional time comes in. Also, there is no guarantee that any of the vaccines in research will be efficacious. There was never a successful SARS vaccine in 18 years. They were just able to get a handle on it because symptoms were so quick to appear that they could isolate those infected.

So, with a year of research, trials and safety testing, add up to 6 months for mass production and worldwide population inoculation and you have 18 months (if it all works). So yes, like the Prime Minister subtly indicated, this is the new normal for a while. And if employees are working from home for over a year, then companies are going to have to adapt to that workflow and create systems to make it work for them. Once that’s established, there’s a very good chance that many companies are just going to keep it in place. Humans adapt pretty quickly. Soon, working from home will be just as accepted as going to an office.

Bad for offices... though, hey the TTC might suit us in its current state for decades longer than we’d expected.

Stop the fear mongering and stay on topic. The building is going up.
 
Discussing the possible effects of a world altering event is fear mongering? ... ok

In a thread about the construction of a new office tower? We have other threads for it.
 
Stop the fear mongering and stay on topic. The building is going up.

"Stop the fear mongering, the building is going up?" Do you have any idea what the entire economy, let alone the real estate and development industry faces?
LOL No, this tower is not going up. And if you think I'm being pessimistic - buckle up.
 
"Stop the fear mongering, the building is going up?" Do you have any idea what the entire economy, let alone the real estate and development industry faces?
LOL No, this tower is not going up. And if you think I'm being pessimistic - buckle up.

I get it more than you know. If this building get impacted then we can discuss it here. Until then discuss it elsewhere. This subforum is about project updates and not about how long it will take to come up with a vaccine. Get it?
 
"Stop the fear mongering, the building is going up?" Do you have any idea what the entire economy, let alone the real estate and development industry faces?
LOL No, this tower is not going up. And if you think I'm being pessimistic - buckle up.

Unless you have specific information you'd like to share; you're not merely speculating, you're saying something that as of today is literally untrue.

Of course, the future may change things; but this is speculation w/o substance at this point.

What value is there in that?

No one is saying with certainty what will or won't be different in 6 months, because its not knowable.

As of today this is an active project with construction continuing and a financially secure future with a blue-chip lead tenant.

If evidence is brought forth that something has changed, that's worth a discussion. For now, we can dial it back to wait and see mode.
 
I should clarify - this tower itself might still be going up. It's very likely as an office tower it's a bit safer. But many projects won't be okay.
We don't know how quickly this will blow over but projects being delayed, cancelled or DOA is a guarantee. It's already happening, so yes this is fact and not simply speculation.
 
I should clarify - this tower itself might still be going up. It's very likely as an office tower it's a bit safer. But many projects won't be okay.
We don't know how quickly this will blow over but projects being delayed, cancelled or DOA is a guarantee. It's already happening, so yes this is fact and not simply speculation.

This thread is about this tower not any other tower.

It's not about condos, nor about other projects proposed, in sales/pre-leasing etc.

It's about this tower.

So let's discuss other projects in their own thread.

As to the broader use of English.............it's not speculation IF you know something for a fact. So when discussing a specific project where a delay has been announced, or work has visibly stopped, where sales are on-hold etc., one is discussing facts.

When one guesses which other project might have this happen next.........one engages in speculation. Sure it may be moderately informed speculation; and in the right thread, there's a place for that. But it is still speculation, unless and until you know.
 
This is clearly not a "postponement" or "delay" event in history.

I have used other discussion forums etc. to talk/argue about the pandemic impacts on at risk people (homeless, seniors) but I'll risk being called cynical by posting one last UT projects and construction comment/guess.

Crystal Ball: commercial development will take a major hit for a few years after/if the virus is wrestled down below pandemic levels.

Residential construction will eventually restart and dramatically shift to live/work proposals (maybe even inside/or attached commercial projects). Sounds like more isolation strategies but that might be the future paradigm.

Don't hate me for posting a UT type comment. Have some real life issues with the bigger, more important discussions.
 
Second Crane (base) being installed today. More steel columns as well..

IMG_3347.jpg


IMG_3348.jpg


IMG_3355.jpg


IMG_3352.jpg
 

Back
Top