mgl said:
I hope the condo boom ends this winter and this never gets built.
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I heard the boom is to end February 11th. But then start up again the beginning of March. In all seriousness, our condo boom will likely continue, but perhaps keep this slower pace for a few more years. I can't see your wish coming true that it won't get built. The city has been growing since I was born...and apparently long before that, too!
 
RiverCity1 said:
I heard the boom is to end February 11th. But then start up again the beginning of March. In all seriousness, our condo boom will likely continue, but perhaps keep this slower pace for a few more years. I can't see your wish coming true that it won't get built. The city has been growing since I was born...and apparently long before that, too!
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I love the condo boom naysayers. The boom apparently came to an end in 2007. And '08. 09', 10', 11', '12 and '13 as well :cool:. But I do feel that there will be a slow down in the near future. Whether or not that means the boom will be over is debatable.
 
The slow down is now.. sales have plummeted. developers luckily have been smart and we haven't seen many new units flooding the market.
 
The key is that, the world is pretty messed up. And people want to come to Canada where we aren't messed up. A large chunk of those people will settle in Toronto. So unless there is massive unemployment and/or a mass exodus of people leaving the city, in all likelihood, the city will continue to grow and prosper as it has historically. We aren't building any new single-family detached homes in the 416, so housing in the future will continue to be condo apartments. This isn't rocket science, its supply and demand. Garth Turner will preach otherwise.
 
Anything is possible, but to think that Yonge Street won't be lined with high-rise apartment buildings (condos or rentals) is unrealistic now.
 
just because it is zoned like that doesn't mean it will be like that. The entertainment district is zoned for 30 meter buildings, but 150 meters is the norm. There are plenty of precedents in the area for taller buildings and I see no reason why taller buildings should be denied unless they don't pay attention to historic properties.
 
actually no, in the height core area they are limited to 4 floors. as you get closer to Bloor-Yonge, the maximum height jumps to around 170m.
 
I read the exceptions. Developers also look for the exceptions in planning docs, and if there aren't any...they apply for zoning by-law amendments to permit their desired projects. Frameworks and guidelines are just that.
 
RiverCity1 said:
I heard the boom is to end February 11th. But then start up again the beginning of March. In all seriousness, our condo boom will likely continue, but perhaps keep this slower pace for a few more years. I can't see your wish coming true that it won't get built. The city has been growing since I was born...and apparently long before that, too!
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There are plenty of buildings that don't get built for one reason or another when the market slows. 50 Wellesley comes to mind. The previous building (#46) was knocked down but construction delayed due to the 2008 financial crisis. Even though it's a reputable builder, it's still an empty lot years later.

The market is slowing. It may not crash, but every cycle has an end.
 
People always like to claim that i.e. every cycle has its end ... its absolutely true but what exactly does end mean ? Pre 2000 condo construction ?

You need to keep this in mind - the total # of housing units going up in the GTA has not skyrocketed regardless of what many say. There has been a massive shift from detached to town-homes / condos and this will not stop, this is simply due to all the land planning guidelines in the GTA, simply put there just won't be that many more massive housing developments, rather more and more development will shift to condos, you can see this throughout the 905 now ! This is a trend that only started the last 5/10 years.

So given this, I don't think we'll see the crash everyone has predicted for years and years, namely because while there has been a boom ... and granted the # condos built certain years has been rather astonishing ... a big part of the growth is not growth at all, rather a shift in the types of developments we see.
 
Why the assumption the trend ot shift if you prefer won't reverse itself? I'm not suggesting single family homes on greenfields but, there are many more affordable alternatives to highrise living. Condominium ownership has always shown more volatility particularly highrise apartments with huge peaks and deep valleys. Nothing to me suggests things are any different thsn in the past. There's a lot of speculation on the investment side particularly foreign moneys as Canada is seen as a stable, protected economy and the cash rich foreigners have very few investment options outside of real estate.

It's oddly coincidential that our market sees some of its worst sales figures in the past decade around the same time foreign governments are making a real concerted effort in clamping down on speculation and corruption.
 
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maestro said:
Why the assumption the trend ot shift if you prefer won't reverse itself? I'm not suggesting single family homes on greenfields but, there are many more affordable alternatives to highrise living. Condominium ownership has always shown more volatility particularly highrise apartments with huge peaks and deep valleys. Nothing to me suggests things are any different thsn in the past. There's a lot of speculation on the investment side particularly foreign moneys as Canada is seen as a stable, protected economy and the cash rich foreigners have very few investment options outside of real estate.

It's oddly coincidential that our market sees some of its worst sales figures in the past decade around the same time foreign governments are making a real concerted effort in clamping down on speculation and corruption.
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But what alternatives exist given the land use policies in place; Surely the scarcity of land in the GTA will force us down a road where condo developments (i.e. high / mid rises) are the norm.

Its natural for investors to prefer condos over houses, but the reason simply the reduced maintenance requirements and costs.

I'm not arguing the market will not slow down, I'm sure that is unavoidable, but if you assume a certain rate of population growth in the GTA for the foreseeable future, what other housing options exist ?

Now what can of course hamper this is rate of growth, if this slows down considerably ...
 
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