11th
Senior Member
The trees shown in the renders just need to mature. It may not be a tree canopy, but that's probably the best one can do at a location that's by the lakefront exposed to wind.
- Thread starter Northern Light
- Start date
Sunnyside
Active Member
Slowly this is being pushed closer to a legitimately good site plan. Therme in principle is still questionable, but it is sufficiently offset by a lot of public space now. I’m actually quite impressed with the amount of public space, namely the removal of the parking lot in the east. If the architecture of Therme is actually anything close to the renders, then all we have to worry about is its function, and that can change someday. It’ll be a landmark if built well.
I have a feeling this isn’t going to get to the construction phase without being somewhat acceptable for the public, because otherwise it’ll be a monument to this government's failures- that would be missing the mark for Dougie, I think.
I have a feeling this isn’t going to get to the construction phase without being somewhat acceptable for the public, because otherwise it’ll be a monument to this government's failures- that would be missing the mark for Dougie, I think.
jayme2016
Active Member
I have a bad feeling about this.
Sunnyside
Active Member
Just trying to be optimistic over here
milkycontent
Active Member
To me, the way to save this (besides relocating Therme completely to the Better Living Centre site) would be to lose the Entrance Pavilion on the mainland side and reduce the footprint by 30% or so. A more universal public entry way to the island would go a long way to psychologically say "this is a place for everyone" and then here's a ticketed attraction you can enter once you're on the grounds. As it's proposed, you've got this two-tiered bridge separating paying customers and the general public that just feels gross. And it creates this convoluted underground route from the Science Pavilion to the Pods that feels like an after-thought.
It really is just a mess. I do think the Swimming Pier though!
It really is just a mess. I do think the Swimming Pier though!
Amare
Senior Member
The more I look at this plan, the more I think this spa is going to be an utter failure after about ~10 years of operation. How did we get to a place where it was thought this would be a good idea?
I'd rather Doug's idiotic monorail and ferris wheel located here then this spa.
I'd rather Doug's idiotic monorail and ferris wheel located here then this spa.
UtakataNoAnnex
Senior Member
The question that bothers me the most about this is there a market for a type of spa that's depicted here? One that requires parties involved to tear up half a public island for. As the scope of this project seems massive for something that I had presumed was a novelty fad at best and not one where a lot of serious money and assets should be thrown at it on this scale...
...I mean, it would be terrible in 10 years that we'd be arguing over what to do with these buildings left in it's wake because Therme packed it all in...as they couldn't make the money for it to be sustainable. And I see that outcome as a very real possibility if not a probability.
...I mean, it would be terrible in 10 years that we'd be arguing over what to do with these buildings left in it's wake because Therme packed it all in...as they couldn't make the money for it to be sustainable. And I see that outcome as a very real possibility if not a probability.
SKULL_KRUSHER
New Member
Just out of curiosity, why do you think the spa would be a failure? I don't know much about what makes a spa successful, but it seems like most facilities like this aren't close to the city (I might be wrong about this since this is just based on the spas I know). Given the density of Toronto, do you not think there would be enough people that enjoy having a spa like this near downtown?
Northern Light
Superstar
@UtakataNoAnnex will doubtless contribute her own thoughtful answer, but I'll throw my two cents in here.
The sheer size of the facility, up against the price point seems problematic.
You're looking at $40+ per person. For a family of four somewhere north of $120 (I'm assuming some discount); but that's not including parking or transit to the site, nor any food/concession, nor any extra (massage, programming etc.)
That's not a cheap day out. Certainly there are lots of people doing Spas around town at more than that, but they tend to be comparatively smaller facilities, and often targeting the indulgent girls night out, or romantic couple day out/weekend (for those with accommodation). Here they will require families and lots of repeat traffic throughout the year to make the numbers work.
For perspective, they're talking about a draw of 5,000,000 annually, which compares to Canada's Wonderland at ~4,000,000 annually. I think for most families, the latter is probably a more interesting day out, and likely the same or lower cost.
Now, Therme would obviously operate year round, where CW has about 1/2 a year of downtime.
Even then, you're talking average daily attendance of 14,000
I would call that ambitious, particularly in a post-novelty phase.
I think they would actually do better in outer suburbia, beside a highway or such, on the premise they could be cheaper and up their return trip/family rate on that basis.
On straight construction costs (if they hit their estimate); with their ideal attendance, the province subsidizing servicing and construction of parking, My math put them at $10 admission to break even over 7 years.
That sounds good until you realize that's with no overhead, no insurance, no marketing, no operations etc, and no lease cost to the province for the land, either.
We could have a fun time pegging a fair lease number, but I struggle to come to a place where they can break even at $40 per ticket, based on their own numbers.
Of course, we don't know the land-lease terms; I don't have Therme's pro-formas, so there's a bit of guessing at work; but I would simply say I find their business case optimistic at first blush; and wonder, as others do, what the plan is should it fail.
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UtakataNoAnnex
Senior Member
I'm not sure I can adequately say, as I do not have the information before me that I can answer that definitively...
....but that's not what's really important here. Rather has our provincial government done the research so they can definitively say this will be a success? As they're the ones making this all happen. And should be responsible here for whatever the outcome will be. Instead of being swayed recklessly by private interests waving big money at them...because I really hope that's not what is happening here, as that would be near indication as this project will likely be doomed in the eventuality, I strongly suspect.
And what Northern Light-san just said in beating me to this! >.<
ChesterCopperpot
Senior Member
Building a 2,118 spot garage is going to be even more ludicrously expensive.
3Dementia
Senior Member
My 2 cents... it's not just a spa, it's a waterpark with wave pool, slides etc. Hours of fun for kids all year.
I'll bet there's lots of families downtown with bored young kids who would happily pay $120+ for a family getaway nearby (that of course wears out the youngsters).
I'll bet there's lots of families downtown with bored young kids who would happily pay $120+ for a family getaway nearby (that of course wears out the youngsters).
Northern Light
Superstar
Sure; but hundreds of families is less than one day's budgeted attendance; will all of those families be back every single day? Once a month? Once a week?
No question there will be some interest, especially initially, but a business model predicated on higher annual attendance than Canada's Wonderland can surely not be called conservative (small-c)
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
I guess a carpark is what the government meant when talking about OP as a park...
AoD
CharmAlarm
Active Member
Some good articles in Spacing magazine. I like the suggestion that this belongs in Rexdale/Woodbine entertainment centre:
And some very pointed and crucial questions posed by John Lorinc:
Rexdale deserves a spa: An invitation to Therme - Spacing Toronto
Therme Canada’s proposal for a spa is better suited for Woodbine Entertainment’s renewal plan, and would allow the City of Toronto and the Ontario government to strengthen their investments in north Etobicoke by implementing a Community Benefit Agreement to create new revenue for the community...
spacing.ca
And some very pointed and crucial questions posed by John Lorinc:
LORINC: 10 questions about the Ontario Place redevelopment - Spacing Toronto
At some point this week, City officials will upload the Ford government’s zoning bylaw amendment application for the Ontario Place redevelopment to the Toronto planning portal (search “955 Lakeshore Boulevard”). Submitted in late November, this document marks the beginning of what will be a...
spacing.ca