Meanwhile, the service is apparently serving over 3,250 riders a day, which is well on its way to Metrolinx's goal of 5,000. It's going to be hard to convince them to change anything, if they're meeting their stated goal.
When picking up my weekly Balzac's while arriving earlier than usual, or waiting longer for a GOtrain (speedy walk via Platform 3 side entrance, takes only 20-30 seconds to reach UP terminal from the York concourse!).... I notice the evening peaks always has more people than morning peak.
Their estimate of 14 people per train seems to be roughly accurate for the morning peak. Assuming all 140 daily trains had 14 people, that's slmost 2000 people per day. But several evening peak trains can vary from 20 to 50 people on them, which is probably what makes up the rest of the way to 3,250 riders per day.
Metrolinx's 3,250 people is just a mere 23 people per train, at 140 train movements a day (combined, both directions). Even the 5,000 people per day would just be 36 people per day. Obviously, trains are going to be rather empty at this statistic.
In retrospect -- to generate good word of mouth -- they should have made the trains free (with an airplane ticket of same date) for PanAm visitors, just to generate the positive publicity. The arguments that a UPX passenger had with the UPX customer service, over having to pay for "free PanAm transit", will cause that customer to give bad word-of-mouth about UPX.
At the expensive fares, the service can easily break even at a low utilization such as 40 or 50 people per train (as calculated weeks ago), but what would be better is a $10-$15 fare to allow more full trains, while still being able to reach breakeven or even profit.
At this stage -- perhaps it is indeed time to start considering a public transit fare for non-airport stops (e.g. Bloor-Weston-Union hops). $3-$5 to hop from Union to Bloor/Weston, $10-$15 for airport. That'd dramatically increase ridership, I think. One problem I see with dramatic public-transit-like increases is the UPX station is a fairly far labyrinthe walk from other TTC/Union platforms (unless you know the quick Platform 3 shortcut.