With Bloor in particular, I imagine it will largely self-regulate. If there's capacity, people may transfer at Dundas West to take the train if they value the time saved, especially since for that distance standing room only is a non-issue. If there's no capacity, they will quickly adjust their habits to stick with the subway, as the time savings effective evaporate if you miss just one packed train on a 15 minute headway. While it's possible that they might only use the UPX to travel home, which *could* create a capacity issue for airport-bound customers, I think most people are creatures of habit and will just use the same way to travel both directions.

Mount Dennis is in a similar position, since there will also be an alternative and cheaper higher order transit option there. Weston always seemed to me like the obvious commuter station, since the time savings vs taking the TTC are potentially huge.

I think once RER is implemented, especially if it winds up going to the new Airport Hub, that UPX may be converted to a Union-Pearson direct train, with no intermediate stops in between. IIRC correctly, Heathrow has a somewhat similar connection, where the Heathrow Express runs non-stop between Paddington and Heathrow, whereas the Heathrow Connect (the RER in Toronto's case) makes intermediate stops. Faster trip to Pearson for the Express customers, and RER service levels for the local customers.
 
I think once RER is implemented, especially if it winds up going to the new Airport Hub, that UPX may be converted to a Union-Pearson direct train, with no intermediate stops in between. IIRC correctly, Heathrow has a somewhat similar connection, where the Heathrow Express runs non-stop between Paddington and Heathrow, whereas the Heathrow Connect (the RER in Toronto's case) makes intermediate stops. Faster trip to Pearson for the Express customers, and RER service levels for the local customers.
Will there be enough track capacity for this?
 
I think once RER is implemented, especially if it winds up going to the new Airport Hub, that UPX may be converted to a Union-Pearson direct train, with no intermediate stops in between. IIRC correctly, Heathrow has a somewhat similar connection, where the Heathrow Express runs non-stop between Paddington and Heathrow, whereas the Heathrow Connect (the RER in Toronto's case) makes intermediate stops. Faster trip to Pearson for the Express customers, and RER service levels for the local customers.

Exactly. Right now UPE is a stand-in for RER, and we know that will correct itself eventually.

It's a fair debate, however, whether to retain the intermediate stops that link to key transit lines - Bloor, and soon Mount Dennis - which may offer significant ridership. As a local, I don't find these stops objectionable when I have taken UPX its full length. Certainly, they don't create much of a time penalty compared to taking a taxi or limo downtown. Non-stop has a certain intellectual attraction to it, but one or two stops doesn't harm the rider experience. It's not like taking the Tube all the way from Heathrow into London, or RER from CDG into Paris. Even with the stops, it still feels like an express, and not a milk run.

- Paul
 
I think once RER is implemented, especially if it winds up going to the new Airport Hub, that UPX may be converted to a Union-Pearson direct train, with no intermediate stops in between. IIRC correctly, Heathrow has a somewhat similar connection, where the Heathrow Express runs non-stop between Paddington and Heathrow, whereas the Heathrow Connect (the RER in Toronto's case) makes intermediate stops. Faster trip to Pearson for the Express customers, and RER service levels for the local customers.
Does anyone see non UPX heavy rail into a Pearson facility before 2030? I don't.
 
Will there be enough track capacity for this?

It's nothing beyond what is currently planned. It's just a slight reconfiguration of what stops where.

Exactly. Right now UPE is a stand-in for RER, and we know that will correct itself eventually.

It's a fair debate, however, whether to retain the intermediate stops that link to key transit lines - Bloor, and soon Mount Dennis - which may offer significant ridership. As a local, I don't find these stops objectionable when I have taken UPX its full length. Certainly, they don't create much of a time penalty compared to taking a taxi or limo downtown. Non-stop has a certain intellectual attraction to it, but one or two stops doesn't harm the rider experience. It's not like taking the Tube all the way from Heathrow into London, or RER from CDG into Paris. Even with the stops, it still feels like an express, and not a milk run.

- Paul

It'd be interesting to see how many people are getting on at Bloor and Weston and going northbound (towards the airport). I'd imagine there wouldn't be too many commuters doing that trip pattern, so that would give a pretty good indication of whether those stops would be warranted for inclusion in a true express UPX line, or whether they can be dropped and the few passengers that do board there can just catch an RER train to the airport instead.

Does anyone see non UPX heavy rail into a Pearson facility before 2030? I don't.

Into a Pearson facility? Probably not. But RER should be on the corridor by around 2024, which should reduce the need for UPX to serve these intermediate stops. Maybe drop Bloor and just stop at Mount Dennis in the interim (to catch those in between people), and then when RER arrives at the Airport Ground Terminal drop Mount Dennis from the UPX as well.

But then again, the GTAA seems to be wanting this Airport Ground Terminal to be more than just a transit station, so perhaps it's in their interest to fast-track its construction as much as possible. If the UPX station at Pearson is rebuilt with a couple additional tracks, there's little operational reason why RER vehicles can't use it as well.
 
If the UPX station at Pearson is rebuilt with a couple additional tracks, there's little operational reason why RER vehicles can't use it as well.
Gonna need the Hogwarts School of Engineering to pull that off I reckon.
 
Gonna need the Hogwarts School of Engineering to pull that off I reckon.

Yes, the design of the current station and it's surroundings are very limited. But depending on how the construction of the new Ground Terminal is phased, it may open up some space somewhere. That entire area is a giant mess though, I agree.
 
Gonna need the Hogwarts School of Engineering to pull that off I reckon.

I've speculated in the past that the convention center rebuild, whenever it happens, could include a platform for this kind of thing. With large office proposals popping up, 2030 doesn't seem out of line as a target for Oxford.
 
As much as I love the idea of a true Pearson GO station, getting the entire line to run through the airport while still keeping times viable for commuters from Brampton, Malton, etc seems like it would be a hell of a challenge. And while I understand the logic of dropping Weston, disconnecting the Crosstown and Bloor-Danforth lines from the UPX seems like a mistake if RER isn't servicing Pearson, especially before the Crosstown West is complete.

I also wonder about the viability of a direct Union-Pearson train without any regular commuters. Will we be running mostly empty trains past people waiting at Bloor/Mount Dennis for the sake of saving 5 minutes on the trip?
 
As much as I love the idea of a true Pearson GO station, getting the entire line to run through the airport while still keeping times viable for commuters from Brampton, Malton, etc seems like it would be a hell of a challenge. And while I understand the logic of dropping Weston, disconnecting the Crosstown and Bloor-Danforth lines from the UPX seems like a mistake if RER isn't servicing Pearson, especially before the Crosstown West is complete.

I also wonder about the viability of a direct Union-Pearson train without any regular commuters. Will we be running mostly empty trains past people waiting at Bloor/Mount Dennis for the sake of saving 5 minutes on the trip?

I think it would be better to have a station on the railway corridor with a people mover to the terminals, than to divert the corridor to the airport. UPX may not be needed or even fit in the corridor with all the increased service that should come online.
 
I think it would be better to have a station on the railway corridor with a people mover to the terminals, than to divert the corridor to the airport. UPX may not be needed or even fit in the corridor with all the increased service that should come online.
This is even more true as the airport expands. The people mover (likely a modified one that can operate more than 2 trains) would collect and distribute passengers to the 4 to 6 airport related stops from the mainline station.
 
I doubt that UPX will still be around with full 15 minute RER service with the railway corridor diverted to the transit terminal at the Airport, would there even be a need for it or even room on the railway corridor with VIA or HSR also operating?

Although I do think it would be better to just have a people mover from the railway corridor to the Airport terminals instead of going through the much larger expense and hassle of diverting the tracks to the transit terminal, where passengers would still need to take a people mover to the terminals anyway.
Agreed, but the UPX ramps and station could still host LRT service.
 
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I think once RER is implemented, especially if it winds up going to the new Airport Hub, that UPX may be converted to a Union-Pearson direct train, with no intermediate stops in between. IIRC correctly, Heathrow has a somewhat similar connection, where the Heathrow Express runs non-stop between Paddington and Heathrow, whereas the Heathrow Connect (the RER in Toronto's case) makes intermediate stops. Faster trip to Pearson for the Express customers, and RER service levels for the local customers.
Heathrow Express are expected to disappear once Crossrail is completed this year.
[...]
But perhaps not everyone is eager for the arrival of Crossrail. Heathrow Express, for instance, has a direct new competitor on its Heathrow-to-Paddington patch — offering a train service that will be cheaper (more often than not), and isn't all that much slower than the Heathrow Express service anyway.

Unlike the Heathrow Express, Crossrail calls at other central London stations too. As one commentator says, "Why would you want to pay a premium fare to change at Paddington onto the tube or a taxi when you can get a through train to the West End, City and Canary Wharf?"

So does the flashy Heathrow Express — with its built-in TVs and Mercedes Benz-like logo — have what it takes to weather TfL's imminent arrival?[...]
https://londonist.com/london/transport/is-crossrail-going-to-obliterate-the-heathrow-express

As to what happens to UPX remains to be seen, I'm still cynical on seeing the "transit hub" as proclaimed by Pearson actually coming to fruition, there's still a lot of questions about the business model, but if RER is via Pearson, I suspect the UPX infrastructure on Pearson property will be re-purposed, most likely for LRV access from one of the LRT routes headed that way. RER doesn't preclude running alternate 'express trains' both for general passengers and flyers.
 
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