The LRT solution might be very handy for the Yonge corridor north of Richmond Hill centre. Indeed, it can run in-median through most of Richmond Hill, underground through some otherwise choked areas (Aurora?), and maybe switch to side of the road in areas where the density is still low and there is room for such arrangement.
The only concern is that LRT has to be reasonably long, and thus the project will be relatively expensive and has to be funded as a whole rather than in phases. It does not make much sense to switch from subway to LRT north of Richmond Hill centre, and then switch from LRT to bus 8 or 10 km further north.
But if such funding can be secured, it will be arguably better than extending the subway to Major Mac. While the LRT option will preserve the direct connection between the York Region's two most important transit corridors - Yonge and HWy 7 / 407; the subway extension would force riders transferring between them to transfer twice.
Regarding Jane / route to Wonderland, either subway or LRT seems to be an overkill at this point. YRT has plans to run another VIVA route up Jane; it may be upgraded to BRT in the near future, and BRT will be sufficient for a long time.
I’m definitely not advocating for the purposeful dis-incentivizing of transit usage. On the contrary. One of the key purposes of an upgrade to light rail on the Yonge corridor IMO would be to promote arterial development and intensification along the corridor with the offering of greater land value increases and upzoning that comes with railed rapid transit (increases that BRT could never offer). I’m not saying RHC/LG will end up like other planned “Centres”. But as past evidence has shown, development sometimes strays beyond the Centre’s border and follows along arterials.
And when compared to subway north of RHC (and arguably south of there too), the benefits to local transit users can be considered greater in that it would offer more stations and probably higher frequencies than subway. Specific to Langstaff Gateway and the readily apparent issues with regards to access across the site (*the majority of which lies well beyond walking distance to a subway*), I think some form of light rail could be really optimal if worked into the plans. And at the end of the day, IMO at least, buses kinda suck. Not many will leave their car behind to ride a bus (me oftentimes being one of them). So I don’t blame YR for wanting to reconsider plans for Yonge north of RHC by 2041.
Re: the issue of transfer-transfer-transfer...this is naturally an issue, but not exactly a disincentive if we look at the big picture, and factor in commuter-friendly options (i.e GO). Ignoring the Yonge North BCA (which obviously omitted some important info), we can get a clearer picture when reading the 2011 TTC forecasting report. Subway modeling numbers show that by 2031, AM peak hour has 13,300 headed s/bound from RHC station - with approx 40% of those having arrived/transferred at RHC by s/bound bus. Of this 13,300, something like 10,200 (approx 80%) are going downtown. That’s a long way to ride on a subway, particularly one with inherent capacity issues and notorious shutdowns.
But there are a few things to keep in mind here.
1. With regards to commuter options, GO2020 data was used in the TTC’s modeling. With this there was to be no fare integration in place. And specific to the parallel RH corridor, there were to be no corridor upgrades to increase its speed. So what’s presented for 2031 is the current base case, but with higher peak frequencies (15-30min).
2. This GO2020 assumption used for 2031 projections contradicts the RTP/Big Move assumption that fare integration will be in place by 2031. Not to mention that it excludes the 29min RHC-Union express option laid out in the 2010 GO Improvements BCA, the “Express Rail” option included in the RTP/Big Move, and on a basic level it also contradicts the general assumption that improvements to the corridor are to be an ongoing program. And from casual glancing at the RH corridor over the last year or two, it seems to me that incremental upgrades/construction are being undertaken as we speak.
3. Although it’s assumed there’s to be no fare integration between TTC/GO, afaik the subway modeling data includes the elimination of cross-border fares (which I guess keeps with the assumptions in the Big Move/RTP that integration between local operators will be in place, and current fares will remain as-is). Not sure, but I guess that would mean a single token can get you from RHC to anywhere on the TTC?
4. This modeling never included electrified Stouffville or Barrie RER. These are new concepts, are near-mid term priorities, and were not included in the Big Move. Obviously these are different catchments than the Yonge corridor, but the inclusion of these would most definitely affect modeling numbers. Particularly with a 407 Transitway or other cross-region RT service in place.
5. Distance-based fares? Metrolinx is pushing this, and this could definitely alter projections for many projects – whether local, subway, regional, or RER.
6. As the recent debates and studies have shown with SSE, DRL, RER, SmrtTrack(?), and the 2008 Big Move modeling - it’s that there’s a latent demand for commuter rail use (so long as it has integrated fares and high frequencies). All of these were excluded from Yonge North modeling.
Long and short, yes there would be some that would face a transfer-transfer-transfer if there were to be a light rail system along Yonge (either north from Finch, north from Steeles, or north from RHC). But if we factor in all the data and facts and recent news, seemingly the majority of transit users would be unaffected – since many riders in and around the corridor and RHC/LG would be riding med/long distances, and thus would gravitate toward more realistic (and faster) modes.
Since a light rail option was never explored south of RHC (with plans being upgraded from bus to subway), I guess it’s considered “fantasy” to talk about it. But what I’m imagining here wouldn’t so much be tram-style “LRT” with low speeds and capacity. Rather something similar to the Crosstown (by being part grade-separated and part tram-style). Or something like the SRT/SLRT/Skytrain in that it’s fully grade-separated and which could (theoretically and if designed right) provide peak capacity similar to a subway.