[TJ O'Pootertoot]

Definitely not from any development around the Royal Orchard station, there is almost nothing there today, and no plans for much new density.

Maybe, a portion of the development fees generated at RH, where the proposed development is massive. But even then, I doubt all those development fees can cover all 3 stations (High Tech, RH, and Royal Orchard).

The logic is that High Tech and Bridge are already within the funding envelope (along with Steeles and one other, which ended up being Clark.) Royal Orchard is being funded by proceeds from the TOC deals at Bridge and High Tech. (and, for everyone who doesn't recall, part of the logic of shifting the alignment and making the last 2 stations above ground in the first place was to reduce costs and bring them within the envelope.) So those developments are not paying for those 2 stations.

You could argue its it's all a shell game and the actual budget has nothing to do with the envelope etc but that is the narrative of how the stations are being funded. As I've said before, it's bad timing/luck that there is no corresponding TOC deal for Cummer but Toronto trying a "what if we ask the Province but this time it's pretty please AND with a cherry on top" strategy doesn't seem to have paid off.

It would have been nice to have but as the IBC showed, most Cummer folks will still be able to walk to Finch or Steeles so it's not the end of world.

 

[Rainforest]

The logic is that High Tech and Bridge are already within the funding envelope (along with Steeles and one other, which ended up being Clark.) Royal Orchard is being funded by proceeds from the TOC deals at Bridge and High Tech. (and, for everyone who doesn't recall, part of the logic of shifting the alignment and making the last 2 stations above ground in the first place was to reduce costs and bring them within the envelope.) So those developments are not paying for those 2 stations.

You could argue its it's all a shell game and the actual budget has nothing to do with the envelope etc but that is the narrative of how the stations are being funded. As I've said before, it's bad timing/luck that there is no corresponding TOC deal for Cummer but Toronto trying a "what if we ask the Province but this time it's pretty please AND with a cherry on top" strategy doesn't seem to have paid off.

It would have been nice to have but as the IBC showed, most Cummer folks will still be able to walk to Finch or Steeles so it's not the end of world.

It is a missed opportunity. It would be relatively easy to provide a premium transit access at the location with a lot of daily boardings. And, possibly add more highrises between Cummer and Steeles.

Obviously, this is not the end of world. Just like the absence of mid-block stations between Eglinton and Lawrence, or Lawrence and York Mills, is not the end of world.

 

[afransen]

Shifting a Cummer station northwards toward Steeles makes good sense as it evens out the stop spacing, if it would make for a less costly station solution.

 

[turini2]

Just a shame that building an empty station box (like Hume in Singapore or Kwu Tung in Hong Kong) is so expensive...

You have all the expense of design and engineering, digging the box, putting in place structural elements... with no benefits of an open station.

 

[turini2]

Join Metrolinx for a Yonge North Subway Extension Open House!

When:
Thursday, January 25, 2024  |  6:00p.m. – 8:00p.m.

Presentation boards from this event FYI

Nothing really of note - other than "We expect to name a successful bidder [for the Advance Tunnel] in late 2024"

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

It is a missed opportunity. It would be relatively easy to provide a premium transit access at the location with a lot of daily boardings. And, possibly add more highrises between Cummer and Steeles.

Obviously, this is not the end of world. Just like the absence of mid-block stations between Eglinton and Lawrence, or Lawrence and York Mills, is not the end of world.

I agree. The only caveat is that I think you'll end up with all those high rises anyway. The secondary plan is done and two of the 4 corners already are fully planned (one partly built and the other starting soon).

You could move the station north to Wedgewood (or you could have) but that whole block is the one ready to go, approved at the OLT last year, subway or not. Then it's only another 2-3 blocks until your an easy walk to Steeles and the city wants to see midrise along that section. So I don't think you're losing a lot of density, just a bit of more closely integrated development.

 

[Amare]

At the very minimum, a Cummer station should be protected for so it could be built in the future if it's not going ahead right now. The cost of doing that would be very minuscule relative to the overall project cost.

But knowing this government and Metrolinx they most likely wont do it because of whatever BS reason they want to spew out of their mouths.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

At the very minimum, a Cummer station should be protected for so it could be built in the future if it's not going ahead right now. The cost of doing that would be very minuscule relative to the overall project cost.

But knowing this government and Metrolinx they most likely wont do it because of whatever BS reason they want to spew out of their mouths.

The City's business case doesn't make a strong argument for it.

Financial Case:
• Capital costs are within the range of $445-470M upfront, and $535M-$545M forPhased Build delivery (2022$), as previously reported in EX5.3. Both approacheswould require $70 million as part of the Advance Tunnel contract.
• The operating costs for the station were estimated to be $37.2 million (2021$ presentvalue) in Metrolinx’s business case documents.
• There are some capital cost savings associated with including Cummer Station withinthe scope of the current YNSE project.
• Protecting for a future Cummer Station involves near-term expenditures that amount to approximately more than half the cost of a fully-operational station, without achievingany of the strategic or economic benefits.

On balance, I think we've done a crappy job future-proofing our transit system and nothing should be done to preclude a future Cummer station. That said, the business case suggests you'd have to pony up as much as 80% of the full-station cost now so even conservatively, is $250M+ on a $6B project (ie adding at least 5% for a possible future benefit) worth it? Maybe... maybe not.

 

[Amare]

The City's business case doesn't make a strong argument for it.

Financial Case:
• Capital costs are within the range of $445-470M upfront, and $535M-$545M forPhased Build delivery (2022$), as previously reported in EX5.3. Both approacheswould require $70 million as part of the Advance Tunnel contract.
• The operating costs for the station were estimated to be $37.2 million (2021$ presentvalue) in Metrolinx’s business case documents.
• There are some capital cost savings associated with including Cummer Station withinthe scope of the current YNSE project.
• Protecting for a future Cummer Station involves near-term expenditures that amount to approximately more than half the cost of a fully-operational station, without achievingany of the strategic or economic benefits.

On balance, I think we've done a crappy job future-proofing our transit system and nothing should be done to preclude a future Cummer station. That said, the business case suggests you'd have to pony up as much as 80% of the full-station cost now so even conservatively, is $250M+ on a $6B project (ie adding at least 5% for a possible future benefit) worth it? Maybe... maybe not.

Nice digging on the details there.

So seems like about ~$225-$270 million would be needed to protect for a Cummer station. It's very hard to believe that the province wouldnt be able to pony up that much at the very minimum, especially since they went out of there way to excessively and unnecessarily deep bore the tunnel between Royal Orchard and Bridge just so 40-50 homes wouldnt feel any vibration of trains. They are literally going ahead and spending upwards of $50+ million extra (i'm sure the figure will grow but Metrolinx probably wont divulge it in the future) to deep bore a tunnel for no reason while that same money could've been used for an actual worthwhile investment that would benefit thousands of people in the future.

Let's say the province allocated that ~$50+ million to protect for Cummer station instead, that means they would need to sink an additional ~$170-200 million for the protect option. If we take the lower end of that figure ($170 million), if they told the city to find $50 million of that then i'm sure the city would find a way to allocate funds to it.

The way this whole Cummer station screw up is unfolding is really just mindnumingly frustrating and shows how idiotic this whole thing is.

 

[allengeorge]

This station won’t be protected for.

York Region is more politically important, and all the messaging is that the stations in York are ‘paid for’ by TOC (note that this is all hand-wavy future money; no contracts have been made public or signed - everyone is just taking IO and Metrolinx at their word that developers will give them 100s of millions of dollars for 3 stations; I have serious doubts).

That aside, it is CRAZY that it takes over 200M to protect for a future station. Given that price tag you may as well pay for the full thing now, since construction inflation is stupidly high in Toronto, and particularly anything Metrolinx touches (see the Railpath extension for a concrete example of this.) On that point: we do need to be building and financing differently in Canada; at this rate we won’t be able to build any transit projects in the future.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

The way this whole Cummer station screw up is unfolding is really just mindnumingly frustrating and shows how idiotic this whole thing is.

At the very least, this much is not in dispute.

York Region is more politically important, and all the messaging is that the stations in York are ‘paid for’ by TOC (note that this is all hand-wavy future money; no contracts have been made public or signed - everyone is just taking IO and Metrolinx at their word that developers will give them 100s of millions of dollars for 3 stations; I have serious doubts).

As I just posted above, the messaging is not that the stations in York are paid for by TOC. This is true of Royal Orchard and only of Royal Orchard. Clark, Bridge and High Tech (as explained above) were provided for within the subway project funding envelope itself.

And - I know we've been over this ground before too - contracts have definitely been signed, you just haven't seen them, any more than you've seen the obviously signed-and-sealed Ontario Place deal. It's a commercial agreement and while one could certainly argue that we taxpayers should be able to see these deals, there is no way the Province approves massive EMZOs or starts tearing down trees etc. without signed deals. Why would the province announce a deal or create a website like https://www.engagehightech.ca/ and pass legislation and put out a press release from the minister (linked at the website) or otherwise enable a TOC when they don't even have a contract with the proponent? That's absurd.

Does the deal actually say "and the money we get from your development will fund Royal Orchard" or is it actually just going to some big pool with a bit of a wink and some nice messaging? I'm not sure it matters but I have no clue and neither do you. But there is 100% a signed a contract (well, two - one for each TOC, presumably) and there is a 100% chance we'll never see what is in it. Will we ever know how much money there is or precisely how it was spent? Almost certianly we will not.

But yeah - given that the TYSSE stations cost less than $200M, it's kinda crazy it costs more than that just to protect for a station now.

 

[Sandpit]

…especially since they went out of there way to excessively and unnecessarily deep bore the tunnel between Royal Orchard and Bridge just so 40-50 homes wouldnt feel any vibration of trains. They are literally going ahead and spending upwards of $50+ million extra (i'm sure the figure will grow but Metrolinx probably wont divulge it in the future) to deep bore a tunnel for no reason while that same money could've been used for an actual worthwhile investment that would benefit thousands of people in the future.

Of course there’s a political element to it. I saw the poll-by-poll results for Thornhill in the last provincial election. Bay Thorn Drive was dark red in a sea of blue.

 

[Amare]

Of course there’s a political element to it. I saw the poll-by-poll results for Thornhill in the last provincial election. Bay Thorn Drive was dark red in a sea of blue.

To the point that it's driving a government to spend upwards of potentially $100 million to deep bore a tunnel just to get the votes of another 50 homeowners is asinine. It's akin to paying a voter $2 million for their vote, it's one of the craziest vote buying exercises i've ever heard of in my life.

 

[lenaitch]

To the point that it's driving a government to spend upwards of potentially $100 million to deep bore a tunnel just to get the votes of another 50 homeowners is asinine. It's akin to paying a voter $2 million for their vote, it's one of the craziest vote buying exercises i've ever heard of in my life.

Pfffft. Not their money.

 

[Sandpit]

To the point that it's driving a government to spend upwards of potentially $100 million to deep bore a tunnel just to get the votes of another 50 homeowners is asinine. It's akin to paying a voter $2 million for their vote, it's one of the craziest vote buying exercises i've ever heard of in my life.

Actually I double checked, and it's the entire area (except for one poll by 3 votes) between the Ladies Golf Club, Yonge, the Holy Cross Cemetery and Bayview, so maybe more like 1-2 thousand homeowners. But it wasn't as deep red as I remembered: the Liberal candidate got around 50% compared to 30-35% for the PCs. But this still means the Liberals doubled their vote share in this area compared to 2018.