[nfitz]

Please find a quote from YR from end of last summer to right now. Go ahead, I'll wait. The budget had the line going to Steeles.

Why set people to easy tasks? Everyone knows York is pushing this hard.

January 2015 - York Region council request to province to confirm that Yonge subway extension is number one priority project in York Region - http://www.york.ca/wps/wcm/connect/...+Highlights+-+January+22+2015.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

If you need help on how to use Google, I can DM you ...

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

EDIT: NFitz posted while I was typing so thanks for that. I hesitate to tell Denton the special research tool I used to prove him wrong. But it rhymes with "Boogle."

Please find a quote from YR from end of last summer to right now. Go ahead, I'll wait. The budget had the line going to Steeles. And the smear against Metrolinx about the DRL is unfair and uncalled for given they're doing the leg work.

Should we check the York Region twitter feed? Is that the best way to know what political discussions are ongoing? Or do we check Facebook? Snapchat? Oh, fine, I'll play along:
Jan 2014 - Markham council resolution requesting federal funding for the subway.
City of Vaughan, same thing.

Oh....but you said AFTER the summer. Yeah, you're probably right. They likely gave up and changed their minds some time around June or July. (And clearly the fact that those councils all take breaks in the summer and then went to elections in the fall would be a total red herring on my part.)

Seriously, do you have any understanding how these things actually get done?

If you really want something more recent, this is a council resolution from last month - it didn't go anywhere but the language in it makes it awfully clear that the politicians in Markham and Vaughan who tabled it haven't forgotten about the subway.

Are you bored yet? Here are minutes - Sept. 2014 (that's after the summer, right?) from the York Rapid Transit Board (ie Viva) showing a Vaughan motion asking the premier to support incremental funding for the line. I could go on and on but I think you get the idea.

If you're wondering about other things you're wrong about: there is no budget showing the subway going to Steeles. It was an alternative looked at in the Metrolinx BCA and recommended by the Golden Panel, that looked at the revenue tools). So, two things in one paragraph that are 180-degrees, totally off-base. Really, reading what you wrote and then what Nfitz posted literally makes me LOL.

Hey, Denton! Here's when Toronto approved the "6.8 kilometre extension of the Yonge Subway line from its current terminus at Finch Station to the Richmond Hill Centre (Highway 7)" back in 2009. why don't you show me where the budget line for "just going to Steeles" is. Don't worry, buddy. I'll wait.

(If you're done reading that but still not quite regretting asking people to find something so easy, enjoy the Metrolinx 2013 BCA, which finds, time and again, that the full extension to RHC generates the most economic impact, time savings ,transit demand, accessibility and on and on. Even, to address the next genius, for land value uplifts!

All of this arguing about need is fine and all but you're forgetting one thing: If the Yonge line isn't extended to RHC in one shot, TJ O'Pootertoot's self-admitted land holdings in Thornhill won't see full property value uplift. That's why the sarcasm drips heavy when he derides the SSE. That's why he's so defensive with regards to the criticism of the pie in the sky renderporn. That's why it all has to be built in its entirety and NOW before the wool is lifted from everyone's eyes.

York's delusions are the reason why the region is drowning in massive crippling debt like a failed European state.

Comic and pathetic at the same time, but you're referring to my "land holdings," did give me a chuckle. Because I INVENTED the line out of thing air. It's not in the Big Move. Or, you show me - is it in the Big Move but with a dotted line that says, "Maybe stop at Steeles?" What does the completed EA say?

Everyone with any brains know what's wrong with the SSE, from the conception to the "planning" to Rob Ford and Karen Stintz and Stephen Harper. Anyone who knows Thing One about transit or planning should be hugely concerned with how it's come along, even if the Yonge extension proposal didn't exist. If you think it makes sense to look at 3 subways--one of which will generate huge ridership, one of which will relieve a crucial bottleneck in the system and one of which Rob Ford thinks will make Scarberians feel better about themselves--and to build the third, that's your problem.

(Also - can I use 'renderporn'?)

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Why set people to easy tasks? Everyone knows York is pushing this hard.

January 2015 - York Region council request to province to confirm that Yonge subway extension is number one priority project in York Region - http://www.york.ca/wps/wcm/connect/...+Highlights+-+January+22+2015.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

If you need help on how to use Google, I can DM you ...

EDIT: NFitz posted while I was typing so thanks for that. I hesitate to tell Denton the special research tool I used to prove him wrong. But it rhymes with "Boogle."



Should we check the York Region twitter feed? Is that the best way to know what political discussions are ongoing? Or do we check Facebook? Snapchat? Oh, fine, I'll play along:
Jan 2014 - Markham council resolution requesting federal funding for the subway.
City of Vaughan, same thing.

Oh....but you said AFTER the summer. Yeah, you're probably right. They likely gave up and changed their minds some time around June or July. (And clearly the fact that those councils all take breaks in the summer and then went to elections in the fall would be a total red herring on my part.)

Seriously, do you have any understanding how these things actually get done?

If you really want something more recent, this is a council resolution from last month - it didn't go anywhere but the language in it makes it awfully clear that the politicians in Markham and Vaughan who tabled it haven't forgotten about the subway.

Are you bored yet? Here are minutes - Sept. 2014 (that's after the summer, right?) from the York Rapid Transit Board (ie Viva) showing a Vaughan motion asking the premier to support incremental funding for the line. I could go on and on but I think you get the idea.

(If you're wondering about other things you're wrong about: there is no budget showing the subway going to Steeles. It was an alternative looked at in the Metrolinx BCA and recommended by the Golden Panel, that looked at the revenue tools). So, two things in one paragraph that are 180-degrees, totally off-base. Really, reading what you wrote and then what Nfitz posted literally makes me LOL.)



Comic and pathetic at the same time, but you're referring to my "land holdings," did give me a chuckle. Because I INVENTED the line out of thing air. It's not in the Big Move. Or, you show me - is it in the Big Move but with a dotted line that says, "Maybe stop at Steeles?" What does the completed EA say?

Everyone with any brains know what's wrong with the SSE, from the conception to the "planning" to Rob Ford and Karen Stintz and Stephen Harper. Anyone who knows Thing One about transit or planning should be hugely concerned with how it's come along, even if the Yonge extension proposal didn't exist. If you think it makes sense to look at 3 subways--one of which will generate huge ridership, one of which will relieve a crucial bottleneck in the system and one of which Rob Ford thinks will make Scarberians feel better about themselves--and to build the third, that's your problem.

(Also - can I use 'renderporn'?)

Fair enough. But don't sit here and say this is not suburban vote buying like scarborough was, because it is. That's the only reason why suburban subways are built these days. Both the SSE and Yonge North are suburban subways, and political exercises.

All of this arguing about need is fine and all but you're forgetting one thing: If the Yonge line isn't extended to RHC in one shot, TJ O'Pootertoot's self-admitted land holdings in Thornhill won't see full property value uplift. That's why the sarcasm drips heavy when he derides the SSE. That's why he's so defensive with regards to the criticism of the pie in the sky renderporn. That's why it all has to be built in its entirety and NOW before the wool is lifted from everyone's eyes.

York's delusions are the reason why the region is drowning in massive crippling debt like a failed European state.

Ouch.

 

[GenerationW]

Both the SSE and Yonge North are suburban subways, and political exercises.

So what? Every transit project has to go through the political process.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

Fair enough. But don't sit here and say this is not suburban vote buying like scarborough was, because it is. That's the only reason why suburban subways are built these days. Both the SSE and Yonge North are suburban subways, and political exercises.

I'll accept your mea culpa. As for the rest, well, politics is an unfortunate truth but if the money went to the DRL or Brampton or Toronto or a mission to Mars you'd be awful naive not to think that was just as political a decision. I've said, many times in many threads, I think Metrolinx should be making these decisions which would (at least relatively) apoliticize them. Even then, call me crazy, I think this project would be at the top of the list. I say that because:
a) It's near the top of their list
b) Reading the BCA makes it very clear they see a multitude of benefits in it

Whether or not it's a "suburban subway" (and, sure, it is - so is the current subway, between York Mills and Finch; imagine it in 1974!) it's a viable project and all the imaginary LRTs or delusions that my real estate agent invented the project doesn't change that. Despite Rob Ford's nuttiness, part of the reason suburban projects are all the rage now (e.g. Mississauga this week) is because the city is (in many respects) doing just fine and a key planning goal is to fix the auto-oriented suburbs by establishing nodes and serving them with transit. Toronto needs infrastructure too, but it's not like they're building this stuff with no plan or rationale.

Ouch.

Oh, yeah - Forgotten sure nailed me good. And those poor shmos on York Region Council. Of course, any student of history would know that it was the province NOT YORK REGION that put this project on the radar. But by all means, let's BLAME York Region for jumping on a subway the province was going to fund (and may yet, eventually) and deciding to set ambitious density targets all around it, finish an EA as quick as possible and then keep wondering when the money might be coming. The horror! Perhaps they should follow Toronto's model of Transit Planning where one mayor draws lines on a napkin, the next burns it and makes stuff up and council spends four years, reversing itself three times on which fully funded projects to not build, eventually realizing they really need a new line downtown that's shuffled to the bottom of the list and then overridden when Mayor #3 comes into power.

As for me, I'm not going to apologize for knowing the neighbourhood or more of the process and factual basis of this project than many here (I have that Toronto council report bookmarked!), having followed it from Day One, attended consultations, council meetings etc. etc. If the project gets approved, it won't be because of ME, Forgotten. And if it doesn't get funded, it won't be because of your clever barbs either. But it'd be nice if people at least knew what they were talking about before spouting opinions; many here do. Many don't.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

This thread is a train wreck.

 

[44 North]

Relatively low? This thing is expected to move 25,000 pphpd. That's higher usage than the Bloor-Danforth subway.

*"existing ridership" north of Steeles*. Which IIRC is about 16,500 for Viva Blue. I think is safe to say that isn’t really all that high (at least when compared to the large multitude of surface routes in TO that are busier). This is the Yonge corridor, and it forms the border between four different municipalities. One would think that any surface ridership north of Steeles would be way over capacity by now. But it’s pretty low, all things considered. To put it in more perspective: if a Scarb Subway and Markham Subway both opened tomorrow, it’s clear which would have considerably higher ridership, and which would switch places with Sheppard as the proverbial scapegoat whipping boy of transit infrastructure.

And perhaps you’re not aware, but a significant proportion of the 2031 projected ridership is proposed to come from development which a) doesn’t yet exist, and b) is somewhat contingent on the subway being built. So in other words: without the subway, there may not be subway-level ridership by 2031. Alternately; with the subway, ridership along the Steeles to Hwy 7 corridor will make the quantum leap to 122,000k by 2031.

Another point worth noting is that the estimate of how many of these new residents will use transit is quite ambitious, and not just for suburban standards. For example, Langstaff is proposed to have a transit mode share of 65% - which is substantial, to say the least. I don’t want to rehash old posts or get into a long drawn out thing. But there’s a lot of evidence out there which calls into question expectations re: suburban development, jobs, transportation mode share, grand plans, etc. Not to mention there’s the old adage that what we see is not always what we get.

Could there be 65% transit mode share in LG? Could ridership along the Steeles-Hwy7 corridor climb from less than 20k to over 120k in just fifteen years? I’m not certain, but I presume both of these expectations would actually be unprecedented if met. Even if just halfway achieved, I think it would still be an extraordinarily unique situation (and that's incl TO).

Having said that, I don’t want my skepticism about ridership to distract from the fact that I fully agree with you that any added ridership to the Yonge section of Line 1 (be it 10 or 10,000) is a major concern. Y/U-S has been extended a whopping six (?) times since it opened – each and every one of those times came at the expense of a Queen Subway. I firmly believe we shouldn’t extend any of our subways one inch without a proper Yonge relief open and operational. And I’m not talking a Pape to St Andrew thing. I mean a real deal parallel line with a lengthy tunnel bisecting across the south end of downtown.

 

[Forgotten]

The proof is in the pudding or in this case the 250 pages of this thread.

Any time anyone suggests doing anything other than building this monstrosity in its entirety, yesterday, TJOP gets hyper defensive and flies off the handle. With it comes a 5000 word lecture about big nodes, big places to grow, followed by storyboards full of fiction, followed by him lambasting and castigating us peons for how little we know of planning.

The one fact we are constantly reminded of? Who is the one who has spent the past decade absorbing each and every line of each and every sacrosanct report? Not us! We know nothing! It is only through the Word of York, Queen's Park and Metrolinx will we be saved...

What isn't in dispute however is the fact York has the highest per capita debt in the entire GTA and has the multiple credit downgrades to show for it, precisely because they spend like drunken sailors. There's only so much more profligate spending York can do before their debt slides into junk bond territory.

*"existing ridership" north of Steeles*. Which IIRC is about 16,500 for Viva Blue. I think is safe to say that isn’t really all that high (at least when compared to the large multitude of surface routes in TO that are busier). This is the Yonge corridor, and it forms the border between four different municipalities. One would think that any surface ridership north of Steeles would be way over capacity by now. But it’s pretty low, all things considered. To put it in more perspective: if a Scarb Subway and Markham Subway both opened tomorrow, it’s clear which would have considerably higher ridership, and which would switch places with Sheppard as the proverbial scapegoat whipping boy of transit infrastructure.

Those studies say mid line stations in Thornhill will have more customers arriving than stations in Toronto including Centrepoint Mall. If that doesn't tell you it's fiction, I don't know what else does.

 

[salsa]

Oh, yeah - Forgotten sure nailed me good. And those poor shmos on York Region Council. Of course, any student of history would know that it was the province NOT YORK REGION that put this project on the radar. But by all means, let's BLAME York Region for jumping on a subway the province was going to fund (and may yet, eventually) and deciding to set ambitious density targets all around it, finish an EA as quick as possible and then keep wondering when the money might be coming. The horror!

To be fair, Forgotten is not wrong at all to say that York Region is drowning in massive (and growing) debt - the highest per capita in the GTA in fact. Obviously it's not entirely because of subways, but it has a lot to do with their bad city planning over many years. Most of that debt is based on money it hopes to recover from future growth, by fast tracking suburban sprawl and relying on development charges from said sprawl. However all that does is undermine the Places to Grow Act while digging themselves into an even deeper hole. The only way sprawling, low-density cities are designed to sustain themselves financially is to keep growing forever. But as soon as the growth starts to level off a bit, or the economy tanks, or the infrastructure suddenly has to be renewed everywhere all at the same time, then the real trouble begins. York region is supposed to be one of the fastest growing municipalities in Canada, and yet they are already pulling back on infrastructure projects, cutting transit service, have the highest fares in North America, and hiking property taxes on your "land holdings". Imagine what would happen if they weren't one of the fastest growing. York Region is in the same toilet as Mississauga, and may very well resemble a "failed European state" eventually even with their too little-too late attempt at smart growth.


Is York Region's debt too high? http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/02/16/is-york-regions-debt-too-high.html

York Region putting development money ahead of good planning, critics say: http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/201...money_ahead_of_good_planning_critics_say.html

 

[averagegeek]

*"existing ridership" north of Steeles*. Which IIRC is about 16,500 for Viva Blue. I think is safe to say that isn’t really all that high (at least when compared to the large multitude of surface routes in TO that are busier). This is the Yonge corridor, and it forms the border between four different municipalities. One would think that any surface ridership north of Steeles would be way over capacity by now. But it’s pretty low, all things considered. To put it in more perspective: if a Scarb Subway and Markham Subway both opened tomorrow, it’s clear which would have considerably higher ridership, and which would switch places with Sheppard as the proverbial scapegoat whipping boy of transit infrastructure.

In the year 2012-2013 97,460 people used finch station each week day on average. Source pdf

So it isn't just Viva blue that's taking all the riders there, you forgot Viva pink, Yrt routes 88, 23, 99, 2, and 91. People in york who live near steeles will often just walk to steeles and take the TTC (53 Steeles East, 60 Steeles West) to Finch in order to only have to pay once.

Route	average 2012 weekday boardings
Viva blue	21,219
Yrt 88	4,973
Yrt 91	4,431
Yrt 99	2,662
Viva pink	2,010
Yrt 2	1,944
Yrt 23	1,944
Total:	38,096

Viva/YRT source pdf

TTC Route	average 2012 weekday boardings
53 Steeles East	28,100
60 Steeles West	29,800
Total:	57,900

TTC source pdf

I don't know how many make it all the way to finch for each route.
I think this is second best subway expansion in terms of ridership, the first being the DRL.

 

[innsertnamehere]

That's a damned bargain. I wouldn't have guessed it was quite that low. Call it $500M, for the sake of argument and, in a cost-benefit analysis (new development and revenue + buses off the road), you're probably 5-10X better off than spending $4B on Scarborough. I just made that number up, but still; cheap for a subway on Yonge Street with a connection to a major transit hub.



That's probably not true. Indeed, I bet the pros at Metrolinx knew the importance more than Toronto staff. It was on the 25-year Big Move plan, after all. As said before, the great irony is that it was this extension that put the DRL on TTC's radar so hard in the first place, as if they'd totally forgotten about their capacity issues downstream and the need for this line which first surfaced in, what, the 50s? It was only when the extension moved so fast that they "remembered." And now this super-important line they should have found a way to build 20 or 30 years ago is getting pushed back by Scarborough and Smart Track. iPods don't go in and out of fashion with teenagers as fast as foundational transit projects do with Toronto City Council.



Man, do you not see the absurdity of this argument?!
"We're building a POINTLESS subway! You're talking about POTENTIALLY VERY SUCCESSFUL SUBWAY! Obviously council and TTC approved the pointless one with no caveats! No double standards here!"

And that's ignoring that this pointless line is eating up funds and resources that could have gone to the DRL, making the whole thing exponentially worse.

Really, up is down and black is white when it comes to transit planning in this town.

city paid $900 million for Scarborough.

The city would be paying roughly the same here on a "per station" basis, they would only get 2 new subway stops out of this.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

To be fair, Forgotten is not wrong at all to say that York Region is drowning in massive (and growing) debt - the highest per capita in the GTA in fact. Obviously it's not entirely because of subways, but it has a lot to do with their bad city planning over many years.

Yes this is all true and the debt, last I checked, was over $2B. Still "failed European state" was a bit much (the province regulates how much debt they can take on for a reason). I don't think Moody's praised Greece's "prudent and far-sighted fiscal management" or "track record of positive operating outcomes." They also haven't had a series of credit score downgrades (I think only one; not more than 2) but, yes, they have a lot of debt. Some is due to the Spadina line but water infrastructure is the biggest thing, I'm pretty sure.

Anyway, I guess I've said my piece (again). And if I'm regarded as some sort of zealot, so be it. But this thread cycles around on itself every few months so we'll probably all be back in the summer. To sum up:
-the line is planned, the line is not funded
-the line is a priority for Metrolinx and the province and York Region and less so for Toronto (where the idea of a "transit priority" is a moving target, at best anyway)
-It should have lots of benefits north of Steeles and plenty, but fewer, south of Steeles
-It's not going to magically become a plan for a BRT or an LRT no matter how many fantasy maps show it as such
-It's not going to instantly cripple the existing TTC network but the DRL (or some realistic substitute) should be built soon
-It's not going to be an empty "subway to the suburbs"
-A subway on Yonge Street, contiguous with existing intensification, is about as sure a bet as you're going to find in The Big Move
-It's not York Region's "fault" they were told they were getting a subway and planned accordingly
-The politicians in York Region have not remotely given up on it
-The pols in Toronto have probably forgotten about it; but their planning still accounts for it
-If Steeles wasn't a municipal border drawn in 1971, few people would think it's a natural terminus and if/when it opens, it will fundamentally change how people travel in North York and south York Region (in particular, YR residents who walk to the 53 and 60 buses, inflating TTC's numbers and undermining YRT's would be able to travel seamlessly on a single system)
-Transit planning and co-ordination in this region are messed up and Metrolinx could fix that, but they haven't. In the meantime, this line is rather emblematic of everything wrong, from city-vs-suburbs fights to announcing something and not building it etc. etc.
-We need apolitical planning and ongoing revenue tools to generate funds and encourage transit use

Everything else is just noise.

EDIT: Just to pile on poor Denton for asking a silly question; YR council had its monthly meeting today and one of the first items was the rapid transit co's annual report. It's got a page on the subway which says, "Continuing to work with Metrolinx, TTC and the City of Toronto on a regional relief strategy to improve capacity on the Yonge Street corridor and to secure funding." Not surprisingly there was a Q from a Markham councillor about how the upcoming "transit budget" from the province will affect them, which is pretty obviously a reference to the subway too. Not a dead issue.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I agree with you with the exception of Steeles being the natural terminus of the line if it were not for a random municipal border. It to a large extent makes sense, though I agree that the line should ultimately go to Highway 7. After Steeles Yonge street drops into a valley with low density surroundings and no major intersecting transit routes until you get to Langstaff / Highway 7. Thats a nearly 4km jump you need to make to get to the next major transit generating location, and its not necessarily rational to do that jump.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

I agree with you with the exception of Steeles being the natural terminus of the line if it were not for a random municipal border. It to a large extent makes sense, though I agree that the line should ultimately go to Highway 7. After Steeles Yonge street drops into a valley with low density surroundings and no major intersecting transit routes until you get to Langstaff / Highway 7. Thats a nearly 4km jump you need to make to get to the next major transit generating location, and its not necessarily rational to do that jump.

Geographically, true. But even minus the planned future development, it's the transit hub at Highway 7 that justifies it (plus the commuter parking lot to be built there). I've said before, I once thought the most sensible thing was to loop the subway along Steeles (from Yonge to York U) but I think that idea just became obsolete because we've waited so long.

Anyway, I'm not sure the valley is any more significant than the one at Hogg's Hollow. I don't know the ridership numbers for York Mills Station off-hand but Yonge from Lawrence to Sheppard Station isn't so different from Yonge from Steeles to Highway 7 (generally, obviously). So, would you stop the Yonge subway at Lawrence, knowing you have the Sheppard subway running east-west just a few KM away, or do you hook them up?

 

[mdrejhon]

York Region is in the same toilet as Mississauga, and may very well resemble a "failed European state" eventually

Is Mississauga a tax-avoiding society like the average Greece? In Greece, there's so many tax loopholes and lots of tax avoidance happening in Greece, plus very poor tax collection methods (far worse than our city, provincial and federal), plus there's a lot more viable/profitable industry and high-tech in Mississauga. There's far less bureaucracy in Mississauga. They also built infrastructure (e.g. 2004 Olympic stadiums) and let it fallow (e.g. refusing to rent it out to events for a long time, letting some of it crumble like a ruin), as wasted infrastructure. Yes, we are losing to the USA, but far less than Greece is currently losing out. And Greece has far, far, far, far more waste than Mississauga. There's some good things that were done in Greece, even if Mississauga has average better economic output per person. The GDP per person in Mississauga is much better, too. Mississauga average salary is $48K, while Greece average salary is only $12K and far higher jobless rate.

Even if the debt-to-GDP ratio might alarmingly have similar trajectories, look at poor old Japan who has much worse debt-to-GDP than Greece, and suffered the Fukushima nightmare, is managing to be a much more thriving society with perpetually ultra-low jobless rate, good average salary, no fast freefalling of economy like Greece, and good infrastructure still being constructed (e.g. new Shinkansens). Mississauga isn't Japan either, but it's not Greece either.

Saying Mississauga is going to resemble a failed European state, is a bit of hyperbole, even in the future, as much the Mississauga financial problems may be.

We do need to get our finances in shape, but we're nowhere near a Greece trajectory.