[syn]

Well, yeah. I was being a bit ironic. Cost estimates on the SSE have been a moving target since Day 1. Obviously there is value in hearing the most up-to-date estimates (which is probably why we're not hearing them) but they end up being meaningless if every 2 years you change the scope and timing of the project.



First, you want an area that lacks density because the money comes from creating that density.

As for a large area, do you mean like the 150 or so acres owned by 3 development groups at Yonge and Highway 7? There's plenty of land there. Obviously the parcels are smaller along the length of Yonge Street but even there, you have things like the Gupta proposal for Yonge/Steeles, which is massive density on less than 3 acres. And then there's car dealership plaza which must be at least 20 acres; enough for a whole new neighbourhood. (Like, maybe Aouyan would have been happy to pay something as part of the large-scale M2M development, if it meant the Cummer subway station would be built faster. But they wouldn't have paid enough to turn it from a non-starter into a reality.)

No - demand and density aren't the issue there. But there still won't be remotely the kind of money Ford is envisioning and Scarborough isn't Yonge/7.

There is probably some incentive for developers - who do already pay for some of this stuff through DC's - to help build a station that will allow them to build a project for which there would otherwise be little or no demand. I don't know the value of having a tower that connects directly to a station underground, for example. But transit - especially subways - just costs too much for it to be viable as a broad solution. I mean, jeeze, they're citing the Mimico GO station as an example of an early success. I've no doubt it could work for (some) GO stations but subway stations are a whole different can of worms.

Does it?

Ford has cited Hong Kong as an example of the government getting developers to fund transit construction. It works in Hong Kong because it's an incredibly dense, high demand area and you can charge a premium. The cost of construction is also different, as are the rules.

If three developers already own this land, what incentive is there for them to pour hundreds of millions into subway construction? They're going to have to make that money back somewhere.

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

If three developers already own this land, what incentive is there for them to pour hundreds of millions into subway construction? They're going to have to make that money back somewhere.

The short answer is that they can't develop at all (or certainly much slower and at lower density) without the subway. Ergo, they have a financial incentive to get the subway going since it's a pre-requisite for development and making back the money they invested however many years ago in purchasing and assembling the land. I'm not at all suggesting that means they'll build a subway station for Doug Ford or that we are - in any way- like Hong Kong.

I'm merely saying that Yonge/7 is basically your BEST case scenario: undeveloped land, prime corridor, urban growth centre, zoned for high density, contingent on the provision of the rapid transit infrastructure, consolidated ownership, large parcels (also, no real NIMBY's around and willing municipalities)... And even in THAT scenario, I don't think you make much of a dent in the overall project cost and that's as good as it gets. Scarborough has almost none of that. That's why I think it's a shell game.

That's what my point there was.

 

[steveintoronto]

Wasn't their supposed to be an updated City report on the costing for this? The one they were burying before the municipal election?

Did I miss its release?

In my opinion no news is bad news on that front.

There was a 'report by a distinguished transit hack' pending on the whole upload and subway story based on real characters, but adapted for the Big Scream. Cut-out figurines will have to do for now...

Was anyone (save a few naive souls in this string) expecting otherwise?

Next: Doug Ford builds subways on Mars! (Batteries not included)

 

[steveintoronto]

No new transit will be built in Scarborough in my lifetime, mark my words.

I wouldn't go that far, albeit agree with your gist, but what does get built will possibly/probably be nothing like what's been proposed so far.

I think the bigger picture is what happens with "Rapid Rail"...and that then determines what's done in Scarborough. What's truly odd is Scarberians pushing for the worst and most expensive option, with the help of Tory et al: SSE. It just doesn't make sense. If I were a Scarberian, I'd be pressing for much faster, modern, further afield connected transit.

Toronto is its own worst enemy...with ample assistance from the burbs.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I find this saga very amusing, in a sarcastic way. The people (voters) get what they deserve.
No new transit will be built in Scarborough in my lifetime, mark my words.
My only concern is how this affects other projects.

I wouldn’t be so hyperbolic, however I struggle to see a path forward for Scarborough transit expansion in the next several years. The PCs aren’t going to build the EELRT, and they’re clearly not serious about building the Scarborough Subway. The most likely outcome is that nothing gets built over the next four years. And, believe me, I take no joy in this. If I’m correct, this is nothing short of a disaster.

 

[steveintoronto]

If I’m correct, this is nothing short of a disaster.

I digress. *If the demand is there* then so will Enterprise.

The irony is that any investors worth their iodized salt wouldn't have *anything* to do with Fab Ford and his Band of Farts. Look for the Feds to find a way to address this sideways, as they did with REM in Montreal, via the InfraBank or otherwise.

Ford's multiplicity of failings (he's excellent at something!) lend themselves exquisitely to the Feds promoting their own agenda. (At a discreet distance...cough...of course)

 

[sixrings]

Maybe the Mayor of Heaven will send down some divine monies from heaven to shut up all you skeptical liberal media reading posters on here. Have some vision, subways last centuries while LRTS are just streetcars.

 

[JSF-1]

AHAHAHAHA holy shit you honestly typed that out; I sincerely hope you are being sarcastic. Literally any form of transit will last centuries if its maintained and used. Did you forget this city is home to a streetcar system that is over 100 years old? Also you can peddle the misinformation about LRT and Streetcars being the same but the only similarity between the two is the use of Light Rail Vehicles. Operationally they are different.

 

[44 North]

I get what you’re saying, but even the modifications you describe would take years to plan.

I don't know about "years". Maybe one year. And a Lawrence station, if planned for it, doesn't necessarily have to open at the same time.

Also I'm of the opinion that the cost estimates may actually go down, particularly if they do an addendum for a shallower twin bore design. With Lawrence added in maybe costs come out to be the same. Regardless with April costing update I just can't imagine it going any higher.

 

[Allandale25]

Latest column by John Michael McGrath:

On the Scarborough subway, voters will once again reap what they’ve sown
OPINION: If the electorate won’t punish politicians for making unkeepable promises, writes John Michael McGrath, then who can blame the Tories for making one more?

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

AHAHAHAHA holy shit you honestly typed that out; I sincerely hope you are being sarcastic. Literally any form of transit will last centuries if its maintained and used. Did you forget this city is home to a streetcar system that is over 100 years old? Also you can peddle the misinformation about LRT and Streetcars being the same but the only similarity between the two is the use of Light Rail Vehicles. Operationally they are different.

He is.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Latest column by John Michael McGrath:

I’m resigned to the fact that the problem with Ontario isn’t the politicians, it’s the voters. Over and over again, voters elect politicians that tell voters what they want to hear, and not what they need to hear. We see this over and over and over again, whether the issue be transit, finances or hydro. We did this to ourselves. Not the media, not the politicians, only us.

 

[steveintoronto]

I’m resigned to the fact that the problem with Ontario isn’t the politicians, it’s the voters. Over and over again, voters elect politicians that tell voters what they want to hear, and not what they need to hear. We see this over and over and over again, whether the issue be transit, finances or hydro. We did this to ourselves. Not the media, not the politicians, only us.

This has a haunting familiarity for me, being caught up in a number of severe domestic quarrels (not mine) that put my own safety at risk, and this is a cross-gender issue:

I'm boggled by the number of people who *know* they're doing the wrong thing trying to keep a broken relationship going, some to the point of sustaining repeated beatings, and when you put your own safety and neutrality on the line to separate them, and give shelter to the weaker partner...you ask: "Why don't you find someone with higher ideals?" And the answer invariably used to be: "Because that would be too boring".

Voters fit that social demographic. How many times do they need to get violated before 'getting it'?
"And the answer invariably used to be" Past tense. I don't get myself in those situations any more.

 

[Amare]

I’m resigned to the fact that the problem with Ontario isn’t the politicians, it’s the voters. Over and over again, voters elect politicians that tell voters what they want to hear, and not what they need to hear. We did this to ourselves. Not the media, not the politicians, only us.

I think both politicians and voters are to blame. The percentage split can always be argued, but the blame is weighted more on the voters compared to the politicians.

Voters keep electing the same non-ambitious wall posts who only promise to keep taxes low and build some kind of fantasy La-La land transit project. Nobody bothers to ask how they will do so, where they will get the funds, etc...

The politicians these same people end up voting for, are just clueless when it comes to transit and instead of handing off the responsibilities fully to the organizations who know best about it (ie: Metrolinx and the TTC), they end up pushing through idiotic plans which set us back even further in time.

 

[OneCity]

While I find none of the recent announcements concerning or surprising...

I would like clarification as to whether the TTC will continue the design which I believe was previously hinted. If thats the case then the Province should have to answer when the design funds for the new stops will be released. Assuming the budget will be around mid March we may see announcements at the time which should conventiently fall before the new design report date

The final financing and upload details can be drawn out over a longer period of time but if the design funds are not granted then we have actual grounds to point blame on this admin for significant delay. As of now there is no real change in direction whatsoever





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