[muller877]

Perhaps some better math:

1. A point of reference for a land/development deal of this scale: In 2016, the LCBO head office lands were sold to a development partnership for $260M.

2. That’s $260M for a site that will yield around 5,000 residential units, a 750,000 square
foot office tower, and 300,000 square feet of commercial space.

3. $260M for a site where you can build 70-storey towers. A site on the waterfront, minutes from Union Station, and that will be connected to downtown by the PATH network.

4. The kind of site that will not only attract end users, but will also be a beacon for investors interested in both long- and short-term rentals.

5. So when you consider the potential windfall from a site atop a subway station in Scarborough, with none of those characteristics, adjust your expectations accordingly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1085004938906951680

The LCBO lands may or may not be a reference point. Note that in the RFP the purchaser had to supply the LCBO with a lease for a new commercial office + retail space. Of course the terms are in a schedule which are not on Infrastructure Ontario's website. So we don't know if the net value includes a lease at FMV (and hence the price is reasonable) or a lease at $1/year (and hence the price is undervalued).

A better comparison is the recent sale of the 150 hectare Downsview site for C$840m. $5.5m per hectare. And that is without any certainty around any changes to the permitted use.

But greater than the price of the land is the synergies of co-developing a space. Digging underground costs a lot for both a condo and for a subway station. But by doing it together the cost is significantly reduced (you don't need to shore 2 locations...just one).

 

[sixrings]

The LCBO lands may or may not be a reference point. Note that in the RFP the purchaser had to supply the LCBO with a lease for a new commercial office + retail space. Of course the terms are in a schedule which are not on Infrastructure Ontario's website. So we don't know if the net value includes a lease at FMV (and hence the price is reasonable) or a lease at $1/year (and hence the price is undervalued).

A better comparison is the recent sale of the 150 hectare Downsview site for C$840m. $5.5m per hectare. And that is without any certainty around any changes to the permitted use.

But greater than the price of the land is the synergies of co-developing a space. Digging underground costs a lot for both a condo and for a subway station. But by doing it together the cost is significantly reduced (you don't need to shore 2 locations...just one).

Except the government doesnt own 150 hectare of land in scarborough... Thats a big BUT

 

[asher__jo]

One issue with this is some of these were not needed. The Eglington line for example should have never been approved. At the time the experts wanted a dedicated bus line that could be converted to an LRT. Politics brought us the original Eglington Subway. Even today an LRT is sufficient for demand loads. Even in the 90's the DRL was number one priority to the experts, but the NDP were against that, and Harris didn't want to spend money after them. Liberals pushed it 20 years down the line, and no Toronto mayor has pushed for it.

Extending the B-D line - this has been voted on what 5 times by city council and 5 times they rejected it. City clearly doesn't want it. Why? Not sure but again, politics comes to play here.

Priorities are different if you compare people wants, politician wants vs expert wants. The reason we are in the mess is the three are just different.

Thank you for reiterating the facts!

 

[Streety McCarface]

One issue with this is some of these were not needed. The Eglington line for example should have never been approved. At the time the experts wanted a dedicated bus line that could be converted to an LRT.
\.

yet here we are now building a subway along half of the corridor

 

[nfitz]

yet here we are now building a subway along half of the corridor

True - but with LRT technology, which allows Line 5 to daylight and run along the street where road widths permit in less dense areas.

The Sheppard Subway was approved at the same time as the Eglinton West subway - had it been built with the same technology now being used in the subway being constructed under Eglinton, then it surely Line 4 would have been extended further and had more riders by now.

 

[syn]

The biggest mistake in the past 10 years was the Transit City plan.
They should have just come up with the next set of priorities instead of planning a distant future streetcar plan. Essentially, you fill out the highest order transit and then fill in the gaps. The priorities should have been.
#1: Spadina extension to Vaughan (since we need provincial money and Sorbara had to satisfy himself first).
#2: Eglinton subway - correct the Harris mistake of cancelling.
#3: Do something about the aging SRT. At the time that would have been converting to newer Mark II trains and extending to Malvern.
#4: Extend B-D subway to Honeydale (427).
#5 Build DRL.

#1, #3 and #4 would already be done.
#2 and #5 would be well under way.
The debate at the time would have been whether Eglinton or DRL should have been TTC style subway or SkyTrain (maybe 80m to 100m long trains) and maybe connecting SRT to Eglinton. The cost is not much different than Transit City.

Now the debate would be
#1: DRL extension to Seneca.
#2: Sheppard East and West Subway extension.
#3: Possible extension of SRT south (if it wasn't connected into the Eglinton) or East (to UTSC).
#4: Possible Finch West SkyTrain.

The Transit City plan was torn up by Ford nearly 10 years ago.

That was the biggest mistake in the past 10 years.

To replace it, Mayors have proposed hare-brained schemes that make little sense ("The private sector will pay for it!"), leading to almost complete inertia in terms of new project development.

 

[steveintoronto]

"The private sector will pay for it!"

Ah, but the Karma of it is exquisite.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

I'm not even mad about this situation. We, as electors, are getting exactly the government we deserve. People knew what they were voting for, and they got it.

I'm resigned to the fact that we're probably never going to see the Scarborough RT replacement - whatever form that may take - materialize at any point in the foreseeable future. Maybe one day we'll be ready to put on our big boy pants and solve real problems in our city, but that day sure as hell isn't today.

Anyways, the SRT decommissioning is in 2026, so that'll be fun. Doug Ford will have been long booted from office then, so I doubt he cares. TTC better prepare for a nice big order of buses.

 

[Amare]

Even when the day the SRT is on the verge of absolute collapse (ie: concrete starts to crumble, trains start to crack) these politicians still wont be able to come to an agreement on how to replace it. I wont even get to the electors, who will probably find some next bozo who promises them "tax increment funding" and "magical condo developments done by private developers" which will pay for 100% of the replacement cost of the SRT.

Oh wait...we have already reached that point.

 

[BurlOak]

True - but with LRT technology, which allows Line 5 to daylight and run along the street where road widths permit in less dense areas.

The Sheppard Subway was approved at the same time as the Eglinton West subway - had it been built with the same technology now being used in the subway being constructed under Eglinton, then it surely Line 4 would have been extended further and had more riders by now.

And if Eglinton was built grade-separated (i.e. minor modifications to Fords plan), then it would be being extended to Malvern and YYZ now - and poeple would be happy with the result. Something they likely would not have been happy with if Sheppard was at-grade through Vic Park.

 

[nfitz]

And if Eglinton was built grade-separated (i.e. minor modifications to Fords plan), then it would be being extended to Malvern and YYZ now - and poeple would be happy with the result. Something they likely would not have been happy with if Sheppard was at-grade through Vic Park.

That's just not true. There's no way that with Rob Ford's Eglinton line that they'd have even have finished it now - let alone extended it as grade-separated lines!

In reality, it would likely have been even shorter, and never extended east of Kennedy - which would make no one happy. We've seen 20 years of delay for extending the grade-separated Sheppard Line, and 40 years delay on extending grade-separated Line 3. And yet they are jumping up and down at trying to extend non-grade separated Line 5 at both ends. To suggest that it would have been even more likely and faster as grade-separated is beyond laughable to the point that this must be trolling.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Even when the day the SRT is on the verge of absolute collapse (ie: concrete starts to crumble, trains start to crack) these politicians still wont be able to come to an agreement on how to replace it. I wont even get to the electors, who will probably find some next bozo who promises them "tax increment funding" and "magical condo developments done by private developers" which will pay for 100% of the replacement cost of the SRT.

Oh wait...we have already reached that point.

Just to remind everyone of the timelines: SRT decommissioning is in seven years. Unless Doug Ford puts on his big boy pants, and is willing to cough up money for the SSE, its all but certain that construction won't begin within the next four years. I want to believe that the government will do a 180 and admit their funding schemes won't work, but with Ford in office, that seems virtually impossible, especially considering Ontario's fiscal situation.

Even without any political obstructionism, I thought that opening the SSE by 2026 was unlikely. With all this nonsense at play now, I just don't see it happening. This government doesn't care about consequences, they only care about political expediency.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

And if Eglinton was built grade-separated (i.e. minor modifications to Fords plan), then it would be being extended to Malvern and YYZ now - and poeple would be happy with the result. Something they likely would not have been happy with if Sheppard was at-grade through Vic Park.

You think we'd build an Eglinton subway to Malvern? We can't even figure out how to replace the crumbling SRT

 

[nfitz]

Even when the day the SRT is on the verge of absolute collapse (ie: concrete starts to crumble, trains start to crack) these politicians still wont be able to come to an agreement on how to replace it. I wont even get to the electors, who will probably find some next bozo who promises them "tax increment funding" and "magical condo developments done by private developers" which will pay for 100% of the replacement cost of the SRT.

Oh wait...we have already reached that point.

Why do you say that? They've just spent a lot of money rehabbing the SRT and overhauling all the vehicles to extend the life to last another decade or so until the Line 2 extension opens.

Sure, if Doug Ford's flip-flopping extends the opening of Line 2 by another couple of decades they might have an issue - but there's no imminent failure anymore, after they spent all the money.

 

[OneCity]

You think we'd build an Eglinton subway to Malvern? We can't even figure out how to replace the crumbling SRT

That was basically the recommendation in a Metrolinx gave for the SRT to connect to Eglinton Crosstown and head to Malvern.

The was a great compromise to remove the piss poor transfer locations in Transit City and not have the challenges of the current McCowan alignment subway. Too bad it had to come to light soo late and in a absurdly polarized council environment.

There were a few options for the SRT replacement that would have stood the test from ever being overturned. The Transit City plan left the door wide open for various reasons.