[Hopkins123]

The total combined seats in Toronto, Ottawa and Thunder Bay is 35 which puts the Liberals back in contention. They need to find a way to get GTA seats back.

35 out of 124 isn't even a third. And many of those wins will come at the expense of the NDP affecting that party's seat count. Do I believe the PCs will lose all their City of Toronto seats by the next election? Not likely, unless Ford steps down or something drastic like that. York Region is solidly blue. Southern Peel and Halton seem to be getting more Conservative, not less. Durham also looks more Con and everything east of it as well outside of Kingston and Ottawa. Southwest is also looking formidable and the near north like the Soo, Perry Sound and Muskoka. I think Greg Rickford is personally popular enough in Kenora to keep his riding.

So, the bleeding of support seems to be specific to the City and little anywhere else. Oh but I guess Steve will cite the Guelph Mayor as well so there's that.

 

[adma]

Yes, which is still up significantly from the 51.3 percent of Ontarians whom bothered to vote in 2014. Was Kathleen Wynne's Liberal majority not illegitimate too in your view then or do these standards only factor in when a right-wing party is victorious?

The apathetic demonstrate by their lack of voting acquiescence with the expected outcome of the election. They weren't motivated enough to vote to block Ford from winning or assumed he'd win anyway so didn't figure they even needed to cast a ballot for the PCs to affect the results. For all we know, another 20-30% of the population could have been backing the PCs. Many still do and without a credible opposition waiting in the wings to dethrone the PCs, they will for certainly win again. Even if it's a minority it'll still just be a couple seats off of a majority based on today's polling samples.

Again (borrowing from what I said in the other thread) outside of Toronto, Ottawa and the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, where are you guys seeing this Liberal comeback?

First, consider how "Toronto" can encompass the entire GTA (i.e. including the 905, and its typical swing-in-unison trend). Second, re Ottawa, consider how the PCs actually underperformed there in 2018; and while the NDP was a surprise beneficiary, don't be surprised if the Libs polevault back into their traditionally favourable position--I can definitely see Lisa MacLeod as vulnerable, thanks in part to her present riding draw eliminating everything rural. And as for the rest, consider how the federal Libs went from 3rd in '11 to first in '15--and as I've said before and you never seem to comprehend, you can't simply go by raw electoral projection from the most recent results to second-guess future results; thus there could be a lot more on the plate than Thunder Bay. And in particular, anything quasi-urban and with a bellwether pattern--the Peterborough-type seats, IOW.

Maybe they won't always be in play for the Liberals; maybe on occasion they'll carry on their 2018-awakened NDP allegiances. And maybe, as per your prognosis, it all might *not* happen--albeit more likely under non-Ford than Ford leadership.

Of course a lot of these places *appear* to be getting "more Conservative"--but as we ought to learn from 2015 federally vs 2011, it can still be a very *qualified* form of "more Conservative".

But therein lies the problem with Hopkins123's approach to this electoral-prognostication issue: it's not because it's on behalf of the Tories, but because through that bias (or fueling the same), it's so ham-handedly *inflexible* in its interpretations and assumptions. It's like a self-styled "navigational expert" who never reads maps and relies totally on talking GPS--and uses the alibi that in a talking GPS era, maps are of no use to any but a fringe minority, anyway...

 

[steveintoronto]

Again (borrowing from what I said in the other thread) outside of Toronto, Ottawa and the 2 Thunder Bay ridings, where are you guys seeing this Liberal comeback?

You still haven't read the polls. Let's make this easy, since every poll I've viewed shows Ford either in shit, or deep shit, or really deep shit.

You produce a reputable poll that shows otherwise. You state "we" a few posts back, but elsewhere in the forums, state you're in Edmonton. Care to elaborate?

 

[steveintoronto]

They (Libs) need to find a way to get GTA seats back.

Last election it was "anyone but Wynne". This one? "Anyone but Ford". Ford is losing the next election. He seems to be good at one thing...My Friends.

 

[Hopkins123]

You still haven't read the polls. Let's make this easy, since every poll I've viewed shows Ford either in shit, or deep shit, or really deep shit.

You produce a reputable poll that shows otherwise. You state "we" a few posts back, but elsewhere in the forums, state you're in Edmonton. Care to elaborate?

Are your reading comprehension skills that poor? I said this:

I'm sure right here at home, Edmonton has colder winters than Ottawa and it's LRT network is still being rapidly expanded out.

In response to this:

I'm a little late to the discussion, but the whole debate about LRVs being appropriate for cold winters seems a little silly to me. There are quite a few cities with colder winters than Ottawa (not just colder overall, but with colder winters) that have streetcars and LRT systems. Like Pavlodar, Kazakhstan. Or Vladivostok, Russia. Or Changchun, China. Central Asia is a place of temperature extremes that rival any Canadian city.

Obviously, I'm referring to "home" in this context as Canada when contrasted to Kazakhstan, Russia or China. I've never even been to Edmonton but it's commonly known for its severe winters and is the northernmost major city in the country with a light rail. Context, folks! Again the bias of me being a Conservative living in Toronto must be too shocking for some of you to comprehend.

I'm not even too worried about who's in deep shit and who's not. IMO, it's too early in the mandate for anything of this to lastingly stick! I consider Trudeau to be in deep shit, myself. I guess it's just a matter of perspective who's smells more repugnant.

 

[BurlOak]

And I think this explains why people voted for the PC's, and why people who actually base their political support on logic, will continue to support the PC's until every last one of those previous era Liberals are gone. It truly is amazing the mess the Liberals created.

EDITORIAL: Ontario Liberals buried us in debt we have to repay

His [Financial Accountability Officer] latest one [report] reveals that while it’s going to be hard for Ford to balance the budget, it would have been impossible for the former Liberal government of premier Kathleen Wynne.

That’s because while the Liberals held spending growth to 1.4% in the post-global recession period from 2010 to 2016, they recklessly increased it by 6.8% in their final two years in office.

 

[steveintoronto]

I consider Trudeau to be in deep shit, myself. I guess it's just a matter of perspective who's smells more repugnant.

So do I, and I've made absolutely no bones about it. The polls show it, just as they do that Ford is really fugged.

 

[steveintoronto]

And I think this explains why people voted for the PC's, and why people who actually base their political support on logic, will continue to support the PC's until every last one of those previous era Liberals are gone. It truly is amazing the mess the Liberals created.

EDITORIAL: Ontario Liberals buried us in debt we have to repay

Phhh...other editorials are pointing to Ford even deeper in debt. The latest is just today:
Martin Regg Cohn: The hidden fiscal hole in Doug Ford’s budget that will keep on hurting

If Doug Ford honours his campaign promises, Ontario’s deficit monster will grow to $18.7 billion next year
By 2022-23, the province's net debt would rise to $483 billion, a TD Bank report says
https://business.financialpost.com/...t-monster-will-grow-to-18-7-billion-next-year

Fraser Institute
Ford budget falls short of what Ontario needs
— April 11, 2019
[...]
Strikingly, despite Ford government rhetoric, the deficit-reduction plan closely resembles plans employed by the McGuinty and Wynne governments in the years following the 2008/09 recession.

Specifically, instead of a nominal spending freeze or spending reductions to return to a balanced budget quickly, the Ford government has chosen—like its predecessors—a slow return to balance based on restraining the nominal spending growth rate while waiting for revenues to catch up and eliminate the deficit over time.

Consequently, the Ford government does not project a balanced budget at any point in its first mandate, targeting a return to balance in 2023/24. This is hardly the aggressive approach to deficit-reduction we heard on the campaign trail. [...]

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/blogs/ford-budget-falls-short-of-what-ontario-needs

 

[Videodrome]

The Fraser Institute? When you have lost them....

 

[steveintoronto]

The Fraser Institute? When you have lost them....

It's so hard right that it goes in circles, but the Con-stituents consider it the bible.

 

[BurlOak]

And I think this explains why people voted for the PC's, and why people who actually base their political support on logic, will continue to support the PC's until every last one of those previous era Liberals are gone. It truly is amazing the mess the Liberals created.

EDITORIAL: Ontario Liberals buried us in debt we have to repay

When you think of this, its truly astonishing. 6.8% x 2 = 13.6%. How could anyone recklessly increase spending by such an amount. That is why nobody in their right mind would consider voting Liberal.
Normal increase of 1.4% x 2 = 2.8%.
That essentially means that Ford can cut the budget by 10%, and we would be back to 2017 levels of service - which is basically the same level of service we have now.

 

[tiffer24]

Where did the money go?

"Doug Ford’s Tories are spending about $5 billion more than Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals. And borrowing a lot more. Yet their April budget has cut deeply into programs for people in Toronto and across the province. Where did the extra money go?"

A tale of unforced errors--costing us billions in budgetary blunders.

https://www.thestar.com/politics/po...g-fords-budget-that-will-keep-on-hurting.html

 

[steveintoronto]

Where did the money go?

"Doug Ford’s Tories are spending about $5 billion more than Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals. And borrowing a lot more. Yet their April budget has cut deeply into programs for people in Toronto and across the province. Where did the extra money go?"

https://www.thestar.com/politics/po...g-fords-budget-that-will-keep-on-hurting.html

Four The People...four of them...My Friends.

 

[lenaitch]

Cutting the budget by double digits would likely result in significant civil service layoffs or rooms of civil servants sitting around playing cards because they would have no operating budget (in some ministries, field work is dependent on the fuel budget for the month - it's a big province). It would also likely mean that we're all walking to work for the foreseeable future because they would be no money for transit improvements.

 

[steveintoronto]

Cutting the budget by double digits would likely result in significant civil service layoffs or rooms of civil servants sitting around playing cards because they would have no operating budget (in some ministries, field work is dependent on the fuel budget for the month - it's a big province). It would also likely mean that we're all walking to work for the foreseeable future because they would be no money for transit improvements.

Careful! You'll get the hard right harder still and all sweaty and aroused talking dirty like that.

If Ford wants to cut, he'd better start with himself. Self mutilation for the nation...