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Would you buy an EV from a Chinese OEM?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 11.5%
  • No

    Votes: 61 70.1%
  • Maybe

    Votes: 16 18.4%

  • Total voters
    87
I'm curious as to when gas stations will start to fade away, honestly. Once it's been a few years since electric vehicles have become the majority of vehicles on the road, I wonder if the pumps will start turning into charging stations. If not, are the companies going to just gradually pull back, or will we see an entire chain or two bite the dust?
 
We don't need as many fast chargers as we need gas stations for EVs to become popular. There is an EV 'gas station' in every SFH garage. Charging away from home is only needed for long trips or those who can't charge at home. Even then, we just need more level 2 chargers, and they will be located at destinations like grocery stores, gyms, shopping malls, etc. where people might spend 45 minutes or so. EV owners do around 85% of their recharging at home.

For AVs, charging is trivial. A fleet operator is going to have a maintenance and storage facility that would include charging infrastructure, and probably several top up chargers scattered around where cars would go when unneeded or when they reach a low state of charge. AVs do not need DC charging overnight, they can fully recharge with an onboard charger.

Costs related to installing charging stations at private businesses will have to be recovered from the customers, either through a surcharge on the meter or through increased cost the business' service. The businesses may well have to do it in order to satisfy the market but they won't just magically appear. As well, there might be the capability for charging at a SFH, not all have garages. True that a weather-proof station is likely already available, what there are many in older neighbourhoods who have to resort to street parking. They may well give up ownership and go the 'transportation as a service' route, but AVs do not necessarily preclude continued private ownership. Regardless of the economics, many may well chose to retain ownership for whatever reason.
 
^Gas stations are only part fuel stops but also part convenience stores, and they are distinct from the corporations who supply the gasoline. The whole charge-overnight EV thing will take away plenty of customers - other than on long drives, there will not be any reason to stop in at all. That in turn hurts the convenience revenue, unless gas station owners find a way to transform into some other retail business. So wider EV use will hurt the individual outlets even if the corporate brand can stay viable.

Converting gas stations to charging stations seems unlikely to me, except as emergency oases charging a premium for electricity. At present, each ICE refuelling represents x cents of profit and gas stations turn over y cars per hour. A EV charging lot of the same size will recharge far fewer cars per hour, so the per car charge price would have to be much larger to generate the same income per hour. Even as charging rates shorten, EV recharging is more likely tied to places where the EV charger is a parking amenity as opposed to a drive-in, drive out "pump island" facility.

- Paul
 
I'm curious as to when gas stations will start to fade away, honestly. Once it's been a few years since electric vehicles have become the majority of vehicles on the road, I wonder if the pumps will start turning into charging stations. If not, are the companies going to just gradually pull back, or will we see an entire chain or two bite the dust?
I'm a little surprised to see people/companies keep sinking big bucks into elaborate new gas stations. I guess the nice ones will last the longest, and the crappy 1990s/1980s stations with wimpy convenience stores will die first. It occurs to me that gas stations are first and foremost drug dealers (tobacco) and gambling (lotto) establishments, that happen to sell gas. So maybe they will last a bit longer. I found that striking when I was picking up a package at a local convenience store (I don't go to them often) and while I was waiting, watched a stream of people buying cigarettes and lotto tickets and the occasional chocolate bar. Deeply weird.
 
Costs related to installing charging stations at private businesses will have to be recovered from the customers, either through a surcharge on the meter or through increased cost the business' service. The businesses may well have to do it in order to satisfy the market but they won't just magically appear. As well, there might be the capability for charging at a SFH, not all have garages. True that a weather-proof station is likely already available, what there are many in older neighbourhoods who have to resort to street parking. They may well give up ownership and go the 'transportation as a service' route, but AVs do not necessarily preclude continued private ownership. Regardless of the economics, many may well chose to retain ownership for whatever reason.
I am aware of a major Canadian retailer looking to install a bunch of chargers at many of their locations. They plan to give them pride of place close to the entrance, not far away like you see with many chargers. A partner is going to pay to put them in, and will collect revenue from charging. The locations have excess power provision due to energy efficiency initiatives that have reduced peak power demand. Stay tuned!

I think those relying on on-street parking will be very eager to shed their cars. Parking on the street is far from ideal. I suspect these folks don't drive far and can get by with weekly charges at the grocery store or gym. I know many workplaces provide charging infrastructure (mine does, but it was starting to get swamped pre-COVID).
 
^Gas stations are only part fuel stops but also part convenience stores, and they are distinct from the corporations who supply the gasoline. The whole charge-overnight EV thing will take away plenty of customers - other than on long drives, there will not be any reason to stop in at all. That in turn hurts the convenience revenue, unless gas station owners find a way to transform into some other retail business. So wider EV use will hurt the individual outlets even if the corporate brand can stay viable.

Converting gas stations to charging stations seems unlikely to me, except as emergency oases charging a premium for electricity. At present, each ICE refuelling represents x cents of profit and gas stations turn over y cars per hour. A EV charging lot of the same size will recharge far fewer cars per hour, so the per car charge price would have to be much larger to generate the same income per hour. Even as charging rates shorten, EV recharging is more likely tied to places where the EV charger is a parking amenity as opposed to a drive-in, drive out "pump island" facility.

- Paul
I imagine them transitioning to more mini-QSR+convenience stores. Really, the ideal amenity for a charging lot is a coffee shop/sandwich place with convenience store. Car washes will remain popular as long as we have high levels of private ownership. The biggest change to the retail footprint would be to expand to provide a bit of seating if people want to sit inside while charging.
 
I imagine them transitioning to more mini-QSR+convenience stores. Really, the ideal amenity for a charging lot is a coffee shop/sandwich place with convenience store. Car washes will remain popular as long as we have high levels of private ownership. The biggest change to the retail footprint would be to expand to provide a bit of seating if people want to sit inside while charging.

Sounds a lot like today’s laundromat - bored people waiting for the spin cycle to end. One would hope that those waiting areas have amenities - wifi at least, good washrooms, enough space for physical activity. (Great opportunity for yoga or workout)

The wait-to-charge thing is one of the biggest con’s I envision with the technology. If there are charging stations everywhere, one might be able to keep ahead of consumption while running errands, buying groceries, etc. But if one’s drive is a long one, with few or no stops intended, then whatever time is spent waiting for a charge will be more penalty than opportunity. Charging locations also need to have security.... someone waiting for a charge is a sitting duck for panhandlers (and worse).

The loss of gas stations is another good reason for the push for walkable corner stores in residential urban areas. Smokes and lottery tickets are exactly the sort of product that one might walk a block or two for, better there than at my local gas station.

I still can’t understand the belief that AV will decimate private ownership. Surely fleet management companies will emerge that offer affordable “service protection plans” for privately owned vehicles, such that ownership costs remain attractive... along with an option to release the vehicle into a general pool at the owner’s convenience. No different than Air bnb or cottage rental....many prefer to retain ownership and enjoy through personal use. Earning enough rental to cover basic costs, while retaining the control over availability for personal use, seems attractive. Let the car roam while I’m at work, just ge back when I need to go home. On street parking will continue, especially if the vehicle will drop me off and find its own parking space.

Even today, my family’s lightly-used second car makes no economic sense, compared to taxi or rideshare and periodic short term rental. We keep it, at a hit on our disposable income, as it represents convenience (no waiting) comfort and hygeine (taxi? ugh) safety (female family members with taxi driver stories) and personal space (trunk full of things I leave there eg PPE for work, camera tripod, hiking gear, blanket, first aid kit). Proponents for AV argue that reduced mobility prices will transform demand to a pooled model. In a society that has disposable income to secure personal amenities, I’m not so sure. Price alone is unlikely to remove the desire to personalize and control amenities during mobility . (Or maybe not.... I have never understood the trend to ultra cheap air fares which make flying such a cramped, amenity-absent experience).

- Paul
 
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I'm a little surprised to see people/companies keep sinking big bucks into elaborate new gas stations.
Perhaps it's because they feel there is still a market, and will continue to be for the near-term future. A Deliotte analysis project North American EV penetration to be around 27% by 2030. That still leaves a lot of ICE vehicles, private, commercial, fleet, on the road.


Their future-casting is as valid as anyone else's.

Many small-volume/small-market stations have gone primarily because of new environmental regulations related to ground tank life has made them unprofitable to upgrade.

I think for current and near-term future generations, private ownership will still be a thing. I drive and motorcycle and, until a year ago, a Mazda Miata, which have little or no practical value, simply because I enjoy them. People own MSVs, boats, ATVs, holiday trailers, etc. for the same reason.
 
The future I want: Hail an AV from a co-operatively-owned network, and have it serve fresh coffee while driving me to the train or bus station and booking another AV or maybe a bikeshare for the last mile at the other end.

The future we'll get if we're not careful: "Your Bellcar will arrive between 8am and 5pm tomorrow" and if we're lucky enough that the thing ever shows up, it immediately joins 26 lanes of other AVs running selfish algorithms that are all trying to cut in on one another.
 
Sounds a lot like today’s laundromat - bored people waiting for the spin cycle to end. One would hope that those waiting areas have amenities - wifi at least, good washrooms, enough space for physical activity. (Great opportunity for yoga or workout)

The wait-to-charge thing is one of the biggest con’s I envision with the technology. If there are charging stations everywhere, one might be able to keep ahead of consumption while running errands, buying groceries, etc. But if one’s drive is a long one, with few or no stops intended, then whatever time is spent waiting for a charge will be more penalty than opportunity. Charging locations also need to have security.... someone waiting for a charge is a sitting duck for panhandlers (and worse).

Well, the wait times are not that dramatic. Model 3 can recharge around 150-180 miles of range in 15-20 minutes. A 15-20 min break every 2-3 hours is not unreasonable for a washroom break and to grab a drink or snack. When we get high density of charging stations, you are really just going to cycle from 5% state of charge up to 50 or 60%, which can be recharged very quickly. The last 30-40% is much slower. You can start to cut it very fine on how low you go when there is a supercharger every 10 km or so on a highway.

Regarding panhandlers, I have never heard of that being an issue. The biggest problem is with ICE vehicles deliberately blocking charging stalls by parking in them, or boxing cars in as they are charging.

I still can’t understand the belief that AV will decimate private ownership. Surely fleet management companies will emerge that offer affordable “service protection plans” for privately owned vehicles, such that ownership costs remain attractive... along with an option to release the vehicle into a general pool at the owner’s convenience. No different than Air bnb or cottage rental....many prefer to retain ownership and enjoy through personal use. Earning enough rental to cover basic costs, while retaining the control over availability for personal use, seems attractive. Let the car roam while I’m at work, just ge back when I need to go home. On street parking will continue, especially if the vehicle will drop me off and find its own parking space.

Even today, my family’s lightly-used second car makes no economic sense, compared to taxi or rideshare and periodic short term rental. We keep it, at a hit on our disposable income, as it represents convenience (no waiting) comfort and hygeine (taxi? ugh) safety (female family members with taxi driver stories) and personal space (trunk full of things I leave there eg PPE for work, camera tripod, hiking gear, blanket, first aid kit). Proponents for AV argue that reduced mobility prices will transform demand to a pooled model. In a society that has disposable income to secure personal amenities, I’m not so sure. Price alone is unlikely to remove the desire to personalize and control amenities during mobility . (Or maybe not.... I have never understood the trend to ultra cheap air fares which make flying such a cramped, amenity-absent experience).

I don't see people putting their own personal use vehicles in for ridesharing. People are precious about their cars in a way a fleet company would not be. It's an idea that sounds nice in theory, but I don't see people lending their car out during the day while they are at work. What do you do with your carseats? Do you have to wipe your car down and make sure it is immaculate before you let it pick up passengers? You will be held accountable for passenger satisfaction with the ride like an Uber driver today. I think culture and norms change over time. Yes, cars are a convenient mobile locker for your stuff, but is that worth $7k/year?
 
Regarding panhandlers, I have never heard of that being an issue. The biggest problem is with ICE vehicles deliberately blocking charging stalls by parking in them, or boxing cars in as they are charging.

That reflects the current level of rollout and the placement of charging stations to date. So long as people can park and leave the area while the vehicle charges, that's fine. But if they are plugged in, and the vehicle is interlocked to the charger and won't drive away if the occupant senses a threat, and the area is more isolated, occupants are vulnerable - much more than they are now sitting at a red light. I have encountered panhandlers at gas pumps. (I chose panhandling as a more genteel term than what I was actually meaning - there are more intrusive forms of peddling, street vending, and borderline harassment that favour a captive clientele)

I don't see people putting their own personal use vehicles in for ridesharing. People are precious about their cars in a way a fleet company would not be. It's an idea that sounds nice in theory, but I don't see people lending their car out during the day while they are at work. What do you do with your carseats? Do you have to wipe your car down and make sure it is immaculate before you let it pick up passengers? You will be held accountable for passenger satisfaction with the ride like an Uber driver today. I think culture and norms change over time. Yes, cars are a convenient mobile locker for your stuff, but is that worth $7k/year?

That level of personalization is exactly why I think ownership will not go away. For the last 100 years, autos have been one of the greatest sources of individuality and personal identity in our culture. Autos are a "personal space" for many. Not everyone can afford that level of personal indulgence, but $7K per year is pretty cheap compared to many other pursuits. Certainly, that mentality is changing and many will feel no need for their own vehicle - but I doubt that demand will extinguish.

Some of that storage need is material. Anyone living in a high rise doesn't want to make a second trip to bring all their gear upstairs. Folks who work in things like construction count on their vehicle as a tool shed, even if it's a $50K pickup they use for pleasure.

While pool AV vendors may face competitive pressure to keep their vehicles pleasant, the taxi industry is proof that even when competition is intense, there are no guarantees. This is an opportunity as well as a threat - my phone app should not only hail a vehicle, the database should know what music I want playing when it pulls up. And which brand of complementary ale should be poured and waiting. (I'm only half dreaming, but you get the idea).

And hey, if the pool AV has a hook where I can hang my fuzzy dice, maybe I won't miss that owned vehicle after all ;-)

- Paul
 
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I agree, they should ban ride hailing where there is good transit service and vehicle congestion issues.
Absurd.

ETA: I mean, you can try banning all private vehicles. But to ban just ride-hail? Besides it being unenforceable and capricious, it doesn't make much sense besides.
 

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