[Steve X]

What will be important about the next election is that the winning party will get to decide the 'next phase' of transit expansion. Ford mostly took over the Liberals' direction in 2018 (after some poor attempts to alter it) but by 2026 eyes will be on what comes after the current phase. By the end of the term, it will be 2030; lots will be almost done just like today. Because it is unclear what is coming, that is where the parties' respective visions will be 'duked out'.

With little to go off of, it seems Ford is positioning himself around the OL and perhaps the full Sheppard Subway, but anything beyond that is unclear. My best guess for the Liberals might be Jane RT, but I can't really guess beyond that. Worth noting that it is not going to only be a matter of what gets funded, but how much we spend on transit. Ironically I think Ford will have more of an appetite for more than the Liberals. Something tells me the MTO's/Metrolinxs' (upcoming) 2051 Transit Plans might give an indication of where the current Government is thinking of going.

They can go aggressive like Ford and fund stuff or do nothing. The RL/OL was just receiving money for designs and was many years away from being funded when Wynne was defeated. Eglinton West was being held back cause the surface LRT has balloon to $4b+ and wouldn't even start today if the city was still trying to fund it. It'll be in the same boat as Eglinton East LRT. The SSE would be built as an express subway to STC cause the SRT is dying.

I really don't think the Liberals would be this aggressive if they were to hold power. Ford's move is pretty bold. Although controversial, he is trying to deliver new project. Using ML's (lack of) expertise is really hindering things. Hopefully they learn from all the mistakes they made with the Crosstown.

 

[lexaprofessional]

They can go aggressive like Ford and fund stuff or do nothing. The RL/OL was just receiving money for designs and was many years away from being funded when Wynne was defeated. Eglinton West was being held back cause the surface LRT has balloon to $4b+ and wouldn't even start today if the city was still trying to fund it. It'll be in the same boat as Eglinton East LRT. The SSE would be built as an express subway to STC cause the SRT is dying.

I really don't think the Liberals would be this aggressive if they were to hold power. Ford's move is pretty bold. Although controversial, he is trying to deliver new project. Using ML's (lack of) expertise is really hindering things. Hopefully they learn from all the mistakes they made with the Crosstown.

One thing that I hope gets put to the front of the line for next round of transit expansion is 2WAD service on the Milton Line. Mississauga's ridings will be up for grabs and anyone promising Milton Line improvements (especially Bonnie) will wrap those seats up

 

[drum118]

One thing that I hope gets put to the front of the line for next round of transit expansion is 2WAD service on the Milton Line. Mississauga's ridings will be up for grabs and anyone promising Milton Line improvements (especially Bonnie) will wrap those seats up

That what supposed to happen in 2018, but once the Liberals own the election, that platform plank disappeared.

The only place you may get 2WAD service is Erindale Station since most of the corridor is 3 tracks with that 3rd track missing in 2 location.

Add a bridge over Hurontario, you then can connect the 2 missing sections. Need a 3rd track from Confederation Dr to 427. Then need a fly under at Humber River which will put the 3rd track in for GO for hourly service without interfering with CP.. It will cost about $500 million that will be fully pay for by the province.

Going to 30 minute or less will have an impact on CP #1 track until a 4 track is built. Need a another bridge over Hurontario since all the other bridges are there for the 4th track. Cost about $1 Billion that will be fully pay for by the province.

Anything west requires major improvements like grade separation, widening of bridges, adding 2 tracks and etc at about $1.5 - $2 Billion that will be fully pay for by the province.

 

[Allandale25]

Where is she getting the $3 billion figure from? The recent Globe editorial? What's interesting is that the editorial says it's $3 billion over but this Gloeb article notes the Metrolinx figure of $0.56 billion over.

As discussed here, Metrolinx says it's much lower. $12.56 now vs the budget of $12 billion.

 

[robmausser]

Where is she getting the $3 billion figure from? The recent Globe editorial? What's interesting is that the editorial says it's $3 billion over but this Gloeb article notes the Metrolinx figure of $0.56 billion over.

As discussed here, Metrolinx says it's much lower. $12.56 now vs the budget of $12 billion.

View attachment 510756

The 0.56 figure is on top of already a bunch of budget increases. Thats the recent increase.
Its 3 billion over the original quote from like 2011 for the cost when construction started.

 

[EnviroTO]

There should be an inquiry, but I think the issue that would surface is that the contract and operating model for the project were bungled at the start. Governments have been trying to reduce cost overrun and delivery risks by passing these risks from themselves to these consortiums, and unfortunately the risk becomes the risk of creating an ironclad contract that actually spells out all the possible outcomes and how they would be dealt with. Why don't we go back to the old model where there is an in house general contractor capability? Because people don't want to be blamed, but as this project shows... you don't escape the blame... you just can't own the outcome.

 

[generalcanada]

Where is she getting the $3 billion figure from? The recent Globe editorial? What's interesting is that the editorial says it's $3 billion over but this Gloeb article notes the Metrolinx figure of $0.56 billion over.

As discussed here, Metrolinx says it's much lower. $12.56 now vs the budget of $12 billion.

View attachment 510756

yea we discussed this 2 pages ago, basically. 12 billion was the "budget" for the crosstown. and the contract was signed for 9.1.

How they signed the 9.1 bil contract and have given out 12. is a valid question

 

[nfitz]

yea we discussed this 2 pages ago, basically. 12 billion was the "budget" for the crosstown. and the contract was signed for 9.1.

How they signed the 9.1 bil contract and have given out 12. is a valid question

How about the other contracts? The Crosslinx consortium didn't do the tunnelling, nor purchase the vehicles, or TBMs, and their original contract didn't include Eglinton and Eglinton West which were going to be done by TTC.

 

[generalcanada]

How about the other contracts? The Crosslinx consortium didn't do the tunnelling, nor purchase the vehicles, or TBMs, and their original contract didn't include Eglinton and Eglinton West which were going to be done by TTC.

tbms were completely separate afaik and even if they were it was only like 50 mil or so. Least thats what wiki says. im sure servicing costs for the tbms couldnt be higher than 500 mil. the crosstown west tunnel was 700 mil.

Thats news to me about the yonge/eglinton west. Chance you can source that? that doesnt really make sense

 

[drum118]

tbms were completely separate afaik and even if they were it was only like 50 mil or so. Least thats what wiki says. im sure servicing costs for the tbms couldnt be higher than 500 mil. the crosstown west tunnel was 700 mil.

Thats news to me about the yonge/eglinton west. Chance you can source that? that doesnt really make sense

I think he meant to say that Eglinton East is by TTC, not west and that is still about 10 years out.

Which way you want to count the cost of all things for the line, the line is over budget by a few Billions, not Millions. What did it cost ML on the LRV fleet after the legal battle alone??

 

[Allandale25]

This is behind a paywall so not sure what it says.

 

[generalcanada]

I think he meant to say that Eglinton East is by TTC, not west and that is still about 10 years out.

Which way you want to count the cost of all things for the line, the line is over budget by a few Billions, not Millions. What did it cost ML on the LRV fleet after the legal battle alone??

see im still not sure. is it over budget? the budget from 2010 was 12 billion right?

Province had no choice but to seek Bombardier substitute for Eglinton LRT: Del Duca | Toronto Star

“I refuse to stand idly by in this time of uncertainty,” said the minister of transportation. “From my perspective it’s essential that we take responsible action in order to ensure that we successfully deliver on our commitments to open these transit projects on time.”

web.archive.org

can you count this in the budget?

Metrolinx agreed in 2010 to purchase 182 vehicles from Bombardier to run on Toronto LRT lines, at a cost of $770 million. Two prototype vehicles that were supposed to arrive in the spring of 2015 have yet to be delivered.

IIRC some of theese went to the ion lrt

since that was 2017 and we havent heard anything since then, im skeptical that bombardier failed to deliver.

 

[pmacpherson68]

Just heard on Newstalk 1010, a leaker within Metrolinx is saying that they are targeting December 2024 for the opening day. Take it for what it is…

 

[T3G]

Phew, I am glad that we live in a civilized city where our transit authorities are open and transparent, and we know exactly what steps still need to be taken to ensure the project is opened.

...

 

[TJ O'Pootertoot]

Having the date leaked (for the project that is going to be four years late) after announcing you can't give a date yet, is not the sort of thing likely to improve public confidence in those in charge.