Honestly I don’t see how it’s reasonable tbh. They have ~5% of the OCS wire up right now, no track on 102, no steel up for any of the stops. I think finish building by end of 2027 is reasonable. Commissioning of the trains themselves has already started, which is maybe what he’s referring to there
Just saw the CBC clip and it mentioned that Marigold is hoping to test trains November of 2026. Idk how they’re going to do it but best of luck to them lol
 
"He expects all of the building to be done and testing to start in 2026 and hopes the city approves an accelerated work plan, like was used on 104 Avenue, again"

Woah testing to start in 2026??
In the video the reporter says "the companies goal is to start testing the tracks by next November". TransEd was testing track back by January 11, 2020. Ground breaking was April 2016, so less than 4 years from ground breaking. VLW ground breaking was May 2022, so testing by November 2026 is actually a bit longer than 4 years. That's not a particularly exact measure of progress mind you, but seems about right. At the time the VLSE was limited to testing south of 51 Ave, but, it was none the less basic testing by pushing an LRV around.
I'm curious, given how they are only just starting on 102 Ave, if the first vehicles might have to be trailered to the Lewis Farms facility, or elsewhere, for initial testing. I do not see them having all rail laid in less than a year.
The City's current completion is June 2028.

 
I'm curious, given how they are only just starting on 102 Ave, if the first vehicles might have to be trailered to the Lewis Farms facility, or elsewhere, for initial testing. I do not see them having all rail laid in less than a year.
I am equally skeptical, but the 102 ave spread is only ~600m of dead straight track with utility work being completed this winter. Likely doable in a single season if they allow for a full closure of 102 ave and corresponding intersections (or keep 105, 104, 103 st open as minimally as possible).
 
There’s not a chance the testing is anything beyond basic in a small area. Still a ton of segments without trackbed, let alone rail. 102ave will take until mid 2027 to be ready for trains on that section at all. Feels like people are misunderstanding what cbc is reporting here.

We are 3 full years away still. And that won’t be mostly 2 years of testing. No stops exist yet, most overhead lines won’t be installed for another year still.
 
We are 3 full years away still. And that won’t be mostly 2 years of testing. No stops exist yet, most overhead lines won’t be installed for another year still.
At the average pace they showed over the last 4 quarters, we are between 6 and 7 quarters away from completion. If their plan is for the same accelerated construction pace they has in the last 2 quarters, we could be looking at 4 to 6 quarters for construction to be completed. I feel like we're basing a lot of opinions on what TransEd did, and I don't think this is a good comparison anymore, considering how much more competent Marigold has shown to be.
There are many ways that they can make it faster than TransEd did. Have more crews working simultaneously, extended hours, etc. I will be surprised if they're doing any kind of extensive testing next year, but I will not be surprised at all if the line is up and running by the end of 2027.
 
Has Marigold been more competent? Still a year behind schedule, and didn't have a pandemic to contend with. Don't get me wrong, the accelerated closures helped, but I'm not sure they are much more competent than TransEd. Large capital projects like this are almost always a mess, given the number of contractors involved. They also had the benefit of learning from the challenges that TransEd faced, ensuring they didn't repeat the same mistakes.
 
^ definitely hard to say

I think VLSE was a more technically complicated project to build out: involved tunneling into a river bank, a major river crossing, and two separate elevated track segments a good distance from each other (which I'd like to think drove the decision to not use a gantry for erecting the elevated guideways), but was also ~1km shorter and had four less stations (including only one elevated station vs two on VLW)

but also for consideration: I'd almost argue COVID had a greater effect on VLW than VLSE. TransEd had the bulk majority of construction done in the four years prior to March 2020. MIP started late 2021 right before inflation went rampant and while supply chains were still totally bungled up.
 
At the average pace they showed over the last 4 quarters, we are between 6 and 7 quarters away from completion. If their plan is for the same accelerated construction pace they has in the last 2 quarters, we could be looking at 4 to 6 quarters for construction to be completed. I feel like we're basing a lot of opinions on what TransEd did, and I don't think this is a good comparison anymore, considering how much more competent Marigold has shown to be.
There are many ways that they can make it faster than TransEd did. Have more crews working simultaneously, extended hours, etc. I will be surprised if they're doing any kind of extensive testing next year, but I will not be surprised at all if the line is up and running by the end of 2027.
You think a massive capital project will finish an entire year ahead of schedule?

I promise to buy you a drink along 124th street if you happen to be right 🙂
 
This is usually what happens when you go with the lowest bid. Guarantee that VLSE wouldn’t have had major delays if they went with dragados/flatiron or the Kewit JV. When you accept the lowest bid, they usually have the most constrained timeline as they try to save money on things like subcontractors. I think Colas and Parsons have done a good job with this project. Supply chain issues, spike in labour costs and shortages, and late COVID messed up a lot of the design and procurement which undoubtedly had an issue. However, I think they’ve shown more drive to finish the project than transed ever did.
 

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