[Lennox970]

Pragmatism with Trump means something very different than what Kier suggests. With Reform surging, that distinction should be made much clearer.

Yes, a very different dynamic with Starmer. Getting slapped by Trump (China visit, Chagos) doesn't play to his base the way it does with Carney. Put bluntly, it makes him look weak (with both electorate and internal Labour rivals, see above).

I also think Starmer wants to keep on good terms with Trump especially as he has been successful thus far in preventing the Americans from walking away from Ukraine. Last December's take-it-or-leave-it 28 point plan was slowly walked back after initial intervention by Starmer, then buried after the European summit that came up with the new (20 point?) plan that went nowhere. The Europeans are seeking (demanding, really) an American backstop for any settlement with the Ukraine conflict, and poking Trump for domestic political points won't help this at all. Different dynamic on the other side of the Atlantic.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Labour support has mostly collapsed and Reform is coming right up through the middle because of it...

...it's weird because the UK is very anti-Trump yet they poised vote in the most Trump like party. Farage is even planning on implementing their own version of ICE. But hey, this is Labour trying to get those voters that would never vote for them. And it's completely destroying the country.

 

[Lennox970]

Labour support has mostly collapsed and Reform is coming right up through the middle because of it...

...it's weird because the UK is very anti-Trump yet they poised vote in the most Trump like party. Farage is even planning on implementing their own version of ICE. But hey, this is Labour trying to get those voters that would never vote for them. And it's completely destroying the country.

And the Epstein files revelations about Mandelson have just now detonated right under Kier Starmer.

Yes and no. American politics is a form of domestic politics in Canada, the way it isn't in Britain (or most of the world, for that matter). And what is said about populism - that it is blowback against the failure of mainstream parties- is very pertinent to explaining Reform's rise. Migration/demographic change first burst into national politics in the 2010 election (thanks to an open mic on then PM Gordon Brown) and has never been far from voters' concerns. This predates Trump by many years. The inability/unwillingness to effectively tackle the migration issue (with the cost of living/housing not far behind) may well be the ruin of the legitimacy of electoral politics as we know it: meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Hence, the massive volatility of contemporary UK politics.

The Brexit issue (in addition to migration and grooming gangs) severely damaged the reputation of Labour as the party of the working class, as the Tories destroyed the 'Red Wall' in 2019. Nothing is getting better for Labour on these issues; the recent events at Epping Forest have only solidified the appearance of the government as out of touch. So it is looking like Reform will be picking up the pieces in a few years.

It didn't have to be this way.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

...the fascist never pick up the pieces though, they destroy whatever is left further.

 

[Lennox970]

...the fascist never pick up the pieces though, they destroy whatever is left further.

No, that's Whitehall's job.

The Mandelson scandal is going through Starmer's and his government's credibility like a hot knife through butter. Reminder that Labour won an eyewatering 412/650 seat only majority 18 months ago.

Is Starmergeddon Looming?

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

They won by a landslide...

Green party wins Gorton and Denton byelection, pushing Labour to third place in blow to Keir Starmer

Hannah Spencer elected as party’s first MP in northern England, as Labour sees a 25.3% drop in vote compared to 2024

www.theguardian.com

...and no, it wasn't Reform, lol.

 

[Northern Light]

They won by a landslide...

Green party wins Gorton and Denton byelection, pushing Labour to third place in blow to Keir Starmer

Hannah Spencer elected as party’s first MP in northern England, as Labour sees a 25.3% drop in vote compared to 2024

www.theguardian.com

...and no, it wasn't Reform, lol.

Of note:

This seat had been held by Labour for over a century consecutively. That's about as 'safe' as you can get.............and yet, Labour finished third with 25% of the vote, behind the Greens and 'Reform'.

From the Guardian piece, this graphic showing the distribution of votes in the 2024 election and last night's:

I'm given to understand this may be the first British by-election (ever?) or at least in ages in which neither Labour, nor the Conservatives were in the top two.

Labour appeared to have an own-goal by blocking the popular mayor of Greater Manchester from running here, a move seen widely as Starmer staving off a potential rival.

Meanwhile, the Greens leaned in to a large Muslin electorate unhappy over Labour's take on Gaza, and sending out campaign messages on that in Urdu among other things.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Both Labour and Reform both have had very undignified and beneath contempt responses (read: sore losers) to their losses here. I tend look at it as the Green win as offending all the right people.

 

[Lennox970]

This is definitely not your mother's purple-haired, oat milk drinking, wearing sandals type of Green Party. Sectarian politics are long-standing in Northern Ireland and in the West of Scotland, but this is sheer Lebanonization. All within one or two generations. That is the scary part.

The Green candidate was endorsed by the Muslim Vote, and that devil's bargain got the Greens their first by-election, IIRC. The new MP Hannah Spencer (who announced on social media she was fasting for Ramadan), also did an election video talking in Urdu that pressed all the hot topics that don't concern 95% of English voters: Gaza, Modi, ICE deportations, etc.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025936091652501524

The loss of credibility (such as it was) to Labour was huge and I wouldn't put money on Starmer being in office this time next year. The next test are municiple electins in May, and the swing to Reform and the Greens will be the one to watch.

 

[Lennox970]

Both Labour and Reform both have had very undignified and beneath contempt responses (read: sore losers) to their losses here. I tend look at it as the Green win as offending all the right people.

I cannot take pleasure in watching a Western society coming apart at the seams.

 

[DSCToronto]

This is definitely not your mother's purple-haired, oat milk drinking, wearing sandals type of Green Party. Sectarian politics are long-standing in Northern Ireland and in the West of Scotland, but this is sheer Lebanonization. All within one or two generations. That is the scary part.

The Green candidate was endorsed by the Muslim Vote, and that devil's bargain got the Greens their first by-election, IIRC. The new MP Hannah Spencer (who announced on social media she was fasting for Ramadan), also did an election video talking in Urdu that pressed all the hot topics that don't concern 95% of English voters: Gaza, Modi, ICE deportations, etc.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2025936091652501524

The loss of credibility (such as it was) to Labour was huge and I wouldn't put money on Starmer being in office this time next year. The next test are municiple electins in May, and the swing to Reform and the Greens will be the one to watch.

I bet he is 'deposed' after the local elections in May. Politics in UK is really a dreadful mess with amazingly poor leaders in Labour & Tories and a Trump-Lite populist in Reform ahead of the pack.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

I cannot take pleasure in watching a Western society coming apart at the seams.

...that's pretty much what they where saying, lol.

A pointed take from a Labour MP about the state of party currently:

Peter Stefanovic (@peterstefanovic.bsky.social)

Labour MP Clive Lewis doesn’t hold back on the Gorton and Denton result in this interview with ITV

bsky.app

..."Pound shop Reform" is rather telling.

 

[Lennox970]

...that's pretty much what they where saying, lol.

A pointed take from a Labour MP about the state of party currently:

Peter Stefanovic (@peterstefanovic.bsky.social)

Labour MP Clive Lewis doesn’t hold back on the Gorton and Denton result in this interview with ITV

bsky.app

..."Pound shop Reform" is rather telling.

Very interesting interview with Clive Lewis, the unfiltered voice of the far left.

"Alienated a vast swathe of our constituency on issues from Gaza through to immigration and asylum..."

Ok, now deconstruct that sentence and work out who he is actually referring to as the constituency of the contemporary Labour party. Hint: it's not who it has been for the past 125 years. Which constituency cares about Gaza? Who cares most about immigration and asylum? Certainly, the current gov't has talked a great game on the latter, but done exactly nothing.

Poundshop Reform - great slogan (give his researchers a pat on the back), but it sounds like he wants to take the party back to Corbin (currently in mourning on the loss of a friend abroad).
Worse yet, implicitly disparaging of Labour's old constituency - if ever a lesson on the dereliction of mainstream politics created populism, here it is.

 

[Lennox970]

I bet he is 'deposed' after the local elections in May. Politics in UK is really a dreadful mess with amazingly poor leaders in Labour & Tories and a Trump-Lite populist in Reform ahead of the pack.

Basically, mainstream parties in the UK (and much of the Western world) broke their political systems. A series of governments that are in charge, but not in power.

For quite a while we had a good thing going, shame.

 

[UtakataNoAnnex]

Very interesting interview with Clive Lewis, the unfiltered voice of the far left.

"Alienated a vast swathe of our constituency on issues from Gaza through to immigration and asylum..."

Ok, now deconstruct that sentence and work out who he is actually referring to as the constituency of the contemporary Labour party. Hint: it's not who it has been for the past 125 years. Which constituency cares about Gaza? Who cares most about immigration and asylum? Certainly, the current gov't has talked a great game on the latter, but done exactly nothing.

Poundshop Reform - great slogan (give his researchers a pat on the back), but it sounds like he wants to take the party back to Corbin (currently in mourning on the loss of a friend abroad).
Worse yet, implicitly disparaging of Labour's old constituency - if ever a lesson on the dereliction of mainstream politics created populism, here it is.

Farage is currently claiming they're stole the vote.