[kcantor]

Downtown rents are sluggish and that’s why projects are now much smaller (6 and 7 storey buildings). Rents in suburban Edmonton are very comparable to downtown and from a return standpoint due to reduced land costs sometimes pencil better.

Except...

A concrete high rise project starting today - acquisition or even if just design if the site is already owned - isn't likely to be completed until 2029.taking into account permitting and approvals as well as construction. That means that current sluggish rents are only one factor and probably not as large a factor as vacancy rates.

What is important to the developer are stability of construction costs, the availability of financing, a comfort level with the direction of the economy, and population growth.

I would posit that while the first two of these are reaching a point where they are manageable, the last two are becoming more and more uncertain. In this regard, it's not just a matter of international and national uncertainty (Canada's attractiveness as a country remains and there is a quiet confidence in Carney's directions nationally) but there is increasing concern at the provincial level regarding the province's attractiveness as a destination for capital and the the province's potential for population in-migration as opposed to out-migration in response to the UCP's management of the economy, health-care, education, potential separation upheaval and in-migration barriers.

 

[Canadian 001]

Falcon II, Switch II and The clifton are currently the top candidates of starting up in the next 1-2 years

Plus the Student Housing incentive, the Attainable Homes Incentive AND the infrastructure Upgrade fund could spur even more

And then there is Parks II which might be a little later in 2027-2028,


At least it's not the Mid 1990s where there was a pretty major lull in high rise construction after the 1970s-1980s boom, then A few modest towers got built in the later 1990s
But then the 2000s boom happened

Then A Taper off in 2009-2011 followed shortly by the major 2013-2017 boom which saw the Stantec tower Built, along with a plethora of other towers start up (Fox I and II, Ultima, Encore, Etc)

The First mini boom in 2019-2020 where The Citizen on Jasper, The View, CX, Glenora Park, Beacon @ East Junction as ugly as it is, 121 west and Norwood Capital Care all started

Then the mini boom in 2021-2023 where the Laurent and Eleanor, Parks I, Falcon I, Switch I, Hat @ Old Strathcona, The Edward Block, And Hat @ Oliver all started

2024 and 2025 were slower years for new starts (Other than Macewan School of Business and like 50 mid rises)

But one thing I noticed is currently there are Zero Tower Cranes in Central Edmonton (That will Likely change later this year) as projects are either wrapping up (School of Business, Lotus Park), are Just getting Started (Lilac Park, Westrich 106 project) or are starting soon (Clifton, Falcon 2, Switch 2, More Westrich projects, Another Leston Project or 2)

Sorry for yapping your ears off

 

[bodsbods9090]

No need to be sorry @Canadian 001
You're one of the people on here who have know what's going on.

 

[David A]

Yeah, i don’t think rossdale and boyle street are downtown. If anything, going west of 109st best represent downtown rentals, potentially all the way to 124st. I think 105ave, 100st as boundaries tells a very different story. (Pearl, citizen, promenade condos, Macleran, etc are all prettymuch downtown and luxury).

And when you factor in how most of the suburban areas don’t even have “old stock” yet, the contrast is even higher.

If you compared rents based on year built, and especially if you factored in sqft, not just bdrms, you’d see downtown way above any suburban areas.

Which is why any claims of downtown have low rates and low income residents feels beyond disconnected from reality.

Yes, I agree you have to dig deeper here rather than only just look at averages. There is a lot of older rental stock in some central areas, but there are also fairly new upscale newer buildings in other downtown areas.

 

[Oilers99]

Falcon II, Switch II and The clifton are currently the top candidates of starting up in the next 1-2 years

Plus the Student Housing incentive, the Attainable Homes Incentive AND the infrastructure Upgrade fund could spur even more

And then there is Parks II which might be a little later in 2027-2028,


At least it's not the Mid 1990s where there was a pretty major lull in high rise construction after the 1970s-1980s boom, then A few modest towers got built in the later 1990s
But then the 2000s boom happened

Then A Taper off in 2009-2011 followed shortly by the major 2013-2017 boom which saw the Stantec tower Built, along with a plethora of other towers start up (Fox I and II, Ultima, Encore, Etc)

The First mini boom in 2019-2020 where The Citizen on Jasper, The View, CX, Glenora Park, Beacon @ East Junction as ugly as it is, 121 west and Norwood Capital Care all started

Then the mini boom in 2021-2023 where the Laurent and Eleanor, Parks I, Falcon I, Switch I, Hat @ Old Strathcona, The Edward Block, And Hat @ Oliver all started

2024 and 2025 were slower years for new starts (Other than Macewan School of Business and like 50 mid rises)

But one thing I noticed is currently there are Zero Tower Cranes in Central Edmonton (That will Likely change later this year) as projects are either wrapping up (School of Business, Lotus Park), are Just getting Started (Lilac Park, Westrich 106 project) or are starting soon (Clifton, Falcon 2, Switch 2, More Westrich projects, Another Leston Project or 2)

Sorry for yapping your ears off

I don't see Parks II being developed.

 

[HelpEd]

I don't see Parks II being developed.

Why is that? Apparently they received money to develop the site.

 

[ChazYEG]

I don't see Parks II being developed.

I don't see why not, especially with the whole area around the park picking up steam (even if it is with low-rises). Might take longer than we'd like, but I strongly disagree with that statement.

 

[Oilers99]

I don't see why not, especially with the whole area around the park picking up steam (even if it is with low-rises). Might take longer than we'd like, but I strongly disagree with that statement.

Happy to be proven wrong but investment decisions and employment decisions would indicate otherwise.

 

[Dubas]

I don't see Parks II being developed.

Agreed, at least not from this current group. When I've checked in it has made no progress, and leasing for the Parks 1 has been lacklustre at best.

 

[Oilers99]

Agreed, at least not from this current group. When I've checked in it has made no progress, and leasing for the Parks 1 has been lacklustre at best.

Lot of people here on this forum cheerlead without actually knowing what is happening on projects or the industry.

 

[David A]

Lot of people here on this forum cheerlead without actually knowing what is happening on projects or the industry.

And there are also those who become predictable in their negativity. Do you have a better crystal ball than everyone else?

 

[Oilers99]

And there are also those who become predictable in their negativity. Do you have a better crystal ball than everyone else?

Am I being negative by saying a project is not going to proceed? Plenty 'positive' on various other projects. Additionally, don't have a crystal ball but facts that exist.

 

[bodsbods9090]

Happy to be proven wrong but investment decisions and employment decisions would indicate otherwise.

You did say MacLab had put their money elsewhere.

 

[David A]

I feel there are some reasons to be more positive that the Parks II makes sense to proceed, but I realize we are mostly debating predictions about the future not facts.

 

[thommyjo]

Are there any contingencies with the infrastructure upgrade? If they’ll applied for that, does that require something be built or funds are returned?