[reinventingthewheel]

The consultation period ends this Friday, April 24. In going through the municipal resolutions made so far, one interesting discovery was a slide deck by Alto for the Township of Stone Mills. You can read the whole deck here, but I'm going to display the slide about stages. Politically speaking, the project is not entirely a done deal at the federal level yet:

View attachment 730925

The feds funded the development phase ~$4B but there is no indication where the money to build will come from. The feds will need to approve the final design and commit to fully fund construction or secure a deal with private investments. It’s never been a done deal, always at risk.

 

[Allandale25]

Citizens coalition pitches alternative to Alto high-speed rail

Creating dedicated passenger rail tracks along the existing Via Rail corridor could allow trains to travel up to 220km/h.

www.thewhig.com

I think this article is refering to this group/idea: https://beyondalto.ca/

Can't recall if it has been posted here yet.

A few quick thoughts:
- They don't have a detailed map. This is as close as they come:

- They know it's very difficult and they don't want to create NIMBY reaction.
- CEO of Alto in that Star article already explained:

Imbleau said the ideal approach is often to follow existing infrastructure, such as highways, to minimize expropriations, and even Ontario Premier Doug Ford has suggested the line could run along the Highway 401 corridor.
But Imbleau also told the Star the route along the 401 is not straight enough to support high-speed travel. Instead, planners are aiming to follow property lines where possible to limit disruptions.

 

[micheal_can]

Citizens coalition pitches alternative to Alto high-speed rail

Creating dedicated passenger rail tracks along the existing Via Rail corridor could allow trains to travel up to 220km/h.

www.thewhig.com

I think this article is refering to this group/idea: https://beyondalto.ca/

Can't recall if it has been posted here yet.

A few quick thoughts:
- They don't have a detailed map. This is as close as they come:

View attachment 731106
- They know it's very difficult and they don't want to create NIMBY reaction.
- CEO of Alto in that Star article already explained:

This reminds me of how Via cannot advertise in a way that makes them better than flying. What everyone seems to want is for it to be cheap and not competitive to the existing modes out of fear of them collapsing. Imagine what would happen if those flights did not happen the amount of layoffs that might happen, let alone the lost revenue. The ironically good thing is one of the members of the consortium is Air Canada. It is almost like they know the writing is on the wall and they want to (finally) be ahead of it.

 

[StreetcarRider]

Citizens coalition pitches alternative to Alto high-speed rail

Creating dedicated passenger rail tracks along the existing Via Rail corridor could allow trains to travel up to 220km/h.

www.thewhig.com

I think this article is refering to this group/idea: https://beyondalto.ca/

Can't recall if it has been posted here yet.

A few quick thoughts:
- They don't have a detailed map. This is as close as they come:

View attachment 731106
- They know it's very difficult and they don't want to create NIMBY reaction.
- CEO of Alto in that Star article already explained:

My concern at the moment is that the Alto project will become another political cause celebre after the BC ostrich farm and COVID restrictions. I fear that, like those issues, expertise will get clouded by other things.

This citizen proposal strikes me as that type of thing. The proposal makes it sound like there is a minimum and affordable viable product for VIA relating to existing infrastructure. But VIA itself has said for at least a decade that there is no such opportunity.

It's not a long drive to Ottawa from eastern Ontario or western Quebec. When politicians have to decide whether to move from the development agreement to the network agreement at some point in the future, how will it affect their vote if they see a tractor convoy on Parliament Hill, depressing information about the economy in their briefings, and a bunch of stuff like this citizen proposal circulating around as if it's serious?

 

[micheal_can]

My concern at the moment is that the Alto project will become another political cause celebre after the BC ostrich farm and COVID restrictions. I fear that, like those issues, expertise will get clouded by other things.

This citizen proposal strikes me as that type of thing. The proposal makes it sound like there is a minimum and affordable viable product for VIA relating to existing infrastructure. But VIA itself has said for at least a decade that there is no such opportunity.

It's not a long drive to Ottawa from eastern Ontario or western Quebec. When politicians have to decide whether to move from the development agreement to the network agreement at some point in the future, how will it affect their vote if they see a tractor convoy on Parliament Hill, depressing information about the economy in their briefings, and a bunch of stuff like this citizen proposal circulating around as if it's serious?

The good thing is, the next federal election is not for about 3 years. And some of those ridings won't flip one way or the other over this. By that time the route will be firmed up and everyone will know which properties will be affected.

 

[guavadelic]

The feds funded the development phase ~$4B but there is no indication where the money to build will come from. The feds will need to approve the final design and commit to fully fund construction or secure a deal with private investments. It’s never been a done deal, always at risk.

That's the biggest risk to the project, IMO. More so than rural opposition and as much as a change in government. There are sizable budgetary pressures on the way, like the increase in defense spending, and the government hasn't really outlined how all that will be realistically paid for. We'll see if they are willing to make some tough decisions now that they have a majority.

Imagine what would happen if those flights did not happen the amount of layoffs that might happen, let alone the lost revenue. The ironically good thing is one of the members of the consortium is Air Canada. It is almost like they know the writing is on the wall and they want to (finally) be ahead of it.

At some point the airline lobby (sans Air Canada) will dedicate resources to pushback against Alto and that's when we can expect the opposition to really pick up. Porter Airlines in particular will be hugely impacted by high speed rail in the corridor. They don't serve the long haul international destinations service by AC. They've expanded and diversified routes in recent years, but the corridor is still sizably important to their operations.

 

[micheal_can]

At some point the airline lobby (sans Air Canada) will dedicate resources to pushback against Alto and that's when we can expect the opposition to really pick up. Porter Airlines in particular will be hugely impacted by high speed rail in the corridor. They don't serve the long haul international destinations service by AC. They've expanded and diversified routes in recent years, but the corridor is still sizably important to their operations.

I am surprised that they already haven't, unless they are the ones stirring the pot.

 

[StreetcarRider]

At some point the airline lobby (sans Air Canada) will dedicate resources to pushback against Alto and that's when we can expect the opposition to really pick up. Porter Airlines in particular will be hugely impacted by high speed rail in the corridor. They don't serve the long haul international destinations service by AC. They've expanded and diversified routes in recent years, but the corridor is still sizably important to their operations.

Such airline lobby is presumably behind the renewed push for jets at the island. If they're going to lose market share on short-haul then they would presumably want to increase long-haul, which presumably means jets. So that fight might be fiercer than it was the last time around, 10 years ago.

As for Porter specifically, they have nearly listed their shares to become a public company more than once, but have always backed out. I have no information about why, but my assumption is that their financial position has irregularities that would become public information if they listed their shares. Assuming irregularities exist at Porter, Alto might be a fatal blow, unless it can get jets on the island first (as opposed to using Pearson with the higher landing fees). For example, high-speed rail was cited as a contributing factor to the end of Alitalia in 2021.

 

[picard102]

I don't see this making much of a dent in air travel.
Alto might pull people off the roads, but for the class of customer who fly this route I don't think there is a compelling reason to switch to Alto.

 

[McGillicuddy]

I don't see this making much of a dent in air travel.
Alto might pull people off the roads, but for the class of customer who fly this route I don't think there is a compelling reason to switch to Alto.

The European experience suggests that business travelers can be persuaded to prefer the train, so long as it is time-competitive with flying.

Alto's 3:05 journey time from Toronto to Montreal is not, unto itself, time-competitive with a 1:15 flight, but if you factor in the need to travel to an airport outside the downtown core, clear airport security, arrive at the gate 30 minutes before departure, exit Dorval upon arrival, and then commute to downtown Montreal, you end up pretty close.

 

[Bordercollie]

That's the biggest risk to the project, IMO. More so than rural opposition and as much as a change in government. There are sizable budgetary pressures on the way, like the increase in defense spending, and the government hasn't really outlined how all that will be realistically paid for. We'll see if they are willing to make some tough decisions now that they have a majority.


At some point the airline lobby (sans Air Canada) will dedicate resources to pushback against Alto and that's when we can expect the opposition to really pick up. Porter Airlines in particular will be hugely impacted by high speed rail in the corridor. They don't serve the long haul international destinations service by AC. They've expanded and diversified routes in recent years, but the corridor is still sizably important to their operations.

Flying is still faster and is a premium service. If anything High Speed rail will get people out of their cars more than anything. But the cost has to make sense. Airlines can pivot to areas not served by high speed rail. Also flying doesn't serve in between sites like Kingston, Peterborough, etc.

 

[Ward8]

Flying is still faster and is a premium service. If anything High Speed rail will get people out of their cars more than anything. But the cost has to make sense. Airlines can pivot to areas not served by high speed rail. Also flying doesn't serve in between sites like Kingston, Peterborough, etc.

It depends on the details, both of Alto and where a person is starting their trip (CBD or a connecting flight for example) but for most passengers, the train will be faster door to door. That's the whole point. Most HSR lines result in a dramatic decline in air traffic for the city pair.

 

[StreetcarRider]

Professionals will take the train if they're starting and ending in downtown locations. Professionals who work for the federal government will probably be mandated to take the train.

As for inducements, different classes and maybe station lounges should do the trick (although who needs a lounge if you don't have to show up early?).

 

[micheal_can]

I don't see this making much of a dent in air travel.
Alto might pull people off the roads, but for the class of customer who fly this route I don't think there is a compelling reason to switch to Alto.

Flying is still faster and is a premium service. If anything High Speed rail will get people out of their cars more than anything. But the cost has to make sense. Airlines can pivot to areas not served by high speed rail. Also flying doesn't serve in between sites like Kingston, Peterborough, etc.

Flying slows down if you have to factor security timings. Lets say the race was from door to door of where the mode starts from. So,that includes all checking in, all security and for this assume only a carry on. Flying just lost, or just because no better. With ALTO, if it is operated like Via, You get to the station, show someone your ticket and ID and then board the train. You spend more time walking from Front St to the place where you show your ticket than the rest. That cuts the time down. Now,you can bring your lunch, your water bottle, or even that special beverage for when you arrive to share with colleagues. Oh, and lets not forget winter. Planes get delayed or even canceled due to storms. Rail can keep going 'track speed' depending on how the signalling works. ALTO will kill flying for those doing along the ALTO route.This means though that it opens up those slots at the airport. That means more flights for Canadian and international destinations.

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't see this making much of a dent in air travel.
Alto might pull people off the roads, but for the class of customer who fly this route I don't think there is a compelling reason to switch to Alto.

Flying is still faster and is a premium service. If anything High Speed rail will get people out of their cars more than anything. But the cost has to make sense. Airlines can pivot to areas not served by high speed rail. Also flying doesn't serve in between sites like Kingston, Peterborough, etc.

This comes to mind:

Flying in Canada sucks. The connections to/from the airport are power. The security hassle. And then 1 hr in the air, half of which you have seatbelt on for. We also have some of the highest airfares in the world. And many days of crap weather. Worse, for YTZ, they have over double the bad weather days as Pearson. Whereas in Pearson that might result in delays, for YTZ that could mean diversions or cancellations.

I think HSR would absolutely take marketshare from airlines with the exception of those who have start and/or end points near the airports. If you're traveling from say downtown Toronto to Ottawa? No contest. Downtown to Toronto to Montreal, bit more of a balanced comparison. But the comfort factor will persuade people.