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abacusdata.ca
Ontario PCs and Liberals Statistically Tied as Ford’s Approval Declines and Political Environment Tightens Further
After signs of volatility earlier this month, the latest wave of Abacus Data’s Ontario tracking suggests the province’s political landscape has become even more competitive, with the Progressive Conservatives and Liberals now effectively tied among committed voters.
The shift comes alongside a deterioration in the Ford government’s approval rating and a further decline in the Premier’s personal standing, which has now fallen to its lowest level since before spring 2024.
These results were collected during a period of heightened attention on the government, including reporting on the purchase of a private jet and the subsequent decision to reverse course and sell it. Most responses were gathered after that reversal was announced, suggesting the findings reflect both the controversy and its immediate political aftermath.
PCs and Liberals Now Neck-and-Neck
Among committed voters, the Progressive Conservatives stand at 37%, down 2 points from earlier this month, while the Ontario Liberals have risen 5 points to 36%.
This places the two parties within the margin of error and marks a significant tightening of the race compared to earlier waves when the PCs held a more comfortable lead.
The NDP has declined to 17%, down 4 points, while the Greens remain at 5% and 6% would support another party.
Taken together, these movements suggest a consolidation of support around the Liberals at the expense of both the PCs and the NDP, fundamentally reshaping the competitive landscape over a short period of time.
Liberal Accessible Pool Expands as PC Consideration Declines
Underlying these vote shifts are changes in the parties’ accessible voter pools.
The share of Ontarians who say they would consider voting Liberal has increased to 53% (+3), while consideration for the PCs has dropped to 42% (-5).
This growing gap in potential support suggests the Liberals—despite lacking a permanent leader—are increasingly seen as a viable alternative, while the PCs are encountering greater resistance among voters.
NDP consideration has edged down slightly to 38%, reinforcing the idea that some of its recent gains may not have been durable.
Regional and Demographic Patterns Reflect a More Competitive Map
Regionally, the Liberals now lead in Toronto with 43%, while the PCs hold narrower advantages in other parts of the province, including Southwestern Ontario.
In the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, the two parties are closely matched, underscoring how competitive the key electoral battleground has become.
Age patterns highlight a familiar but increasingly consequential divide. Younger voters are heavily concentrated with the Liberals, who lead with 51% among those aged 18 to 29, while the PCs continue to rely on older voters, where they maintain a clear advantage.
This distribution reinforces both the PCs’ efficiency and their vulnerability if turnout dynamics or voter engagement shifts.
Government Approval Turns More Negative
Approval of the Ford government has moved further into negative territory.
Currently, 35% approve while 44% disapprove, producing a net approval score of -9 and marking a 4-point increase in disapproval since the previous wave.
While approval remains stable, the rise in disapproval suggests that more voters are forming negative views of the government’s performance, a trend that could have electoral implications if sustained.
Ford’s Personal Image Hits New Low
Doug Ford’s personal numbers have deteriorated further and now sit at their weakest point in over a year.
He is viewed positively by 34% of Ontarians and negatively by 46%, resulting in a net score of -12.
This represents a notable decline from earlier in the year and widens the gap between Ford and other political leaders.
By comparison, Marit Stiles holds a net positive impression of +5, while John Fraser, despite lower name recognition, is also in positive territory at +3. Mike Schreiner sits at a neutral net score.
Ford remains the only major leader with a clearly negative image, and his downward trend appears to be accelerating.
Preferred Premier Remains Fragmented
Doug Ford continues to lead as the preferred choice for Premier at 36%, but his advantage is limited.
Marit Stiles is at 15%, John Fraser at 14%, and Mike Schreiner at 7%, while 27% of Ontarians remain undecided.
The relatively high level of uncertainty suggests that many voters are still open to alternatives, particularly in a more competitive environment.
Desire for Change Remains Elevated
The broader mood in Ontario continues to tilt toward change.
A majority, 54%, say it is definitely time for a change in government, with an additional 18% saying it would be nice to see a change.
Combined, 72% of Ontarians express at least some desire for a new government, up slightly from earlier in the month and continuing a longer-term upward trend.
At the same time, just 28% express any preference for re-electing the current government, highlighting the structural challenge facing the PCs.
Direction of the Province Remains Negative
Only 27% of Ontarians believe the province is headed in the right direction, while 52% say it is on the wrong track.
This negative outlook provides important context for the broader political environment and helps explain the sustained appetite for change.
The Upshot
This latest wave confirms that Ontario’s political environment has shifted from competitive to highly contested.
The Progressive Conservatives remain marginally ahead, but their lead has effectively disappeared, with the Liberals, despite being leaderless, now statistically tied. This represents a significant change from earlier in the year when the PCs maintained a much more comfortable advantage.
At the same time, the government’s standing has weakened. Disapproval has increased, and Doug Ford’s personal image has declined to its lowest level in over a year, widening the gap between him and other political leaders.
The timing of this shift is notable. Fieldwork overlapped with a high-profile controversy over the government’s purchase of a private jet and its subsequent reversal. While it is not possible to isolate the precise impact of this episode, the data suggest it did little to improve the government’s standing and may have reinforced existing concerns among voters with the freedom of information changes it passed last week.
For the opposition, the dynamics are changing quickly. The Liberals appear to be consolidating support and expanding their potential voter pool, even in the absence of a permanent leader. Meanwhile, the NDP’s support has softened, pointing to renewed fluidity on the centre-left.
Most importantly, the underlying environment continues to favour change. A large and growing majority of Ontarians believe it is time for a new government, and fewer than three in ten express any desire to see the PCs re-elected.
Taken together, these results point to a political landscape that is more competitive, more volatile, and less predictable than at any point in recent months. The government’s coalition is showing signs of strain, and the opposition, while still divided, is operating in a far more favourable environment than it has for much of the past year.
