[Kenny]

The median price may be more interesting to you as it better reflects the lower end of the market (where most sales are made). The $366000 median price represents a 3% rise since last year, but a 3% drop since the peak in the spring 6 months ago. It was $376750 in May.

Prices usually decline in the later months, picking up again in the spring.

The latest report seems to imply that the market is still pretty strong. It will be interesting to see how it will be in December, January, February and March. Traditionally, the market dips a lot in December: a dip of around 2,000 sales. How the market rebounds in February and March will indicate if it's really "back to normal".

 

[daveto]

http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...et_news/news2010/pdf/nr_market_watch_1110.pdf
http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/mw2010/pdf/mw1011.pdf

6,510 Sales at $438k.
A 13% Sales drop from Nov 2009, but compares reasonably with typical Nov sales of 7000.
Price up 4.5% from Nov 2009.
Price down 1.5% from Oct 2010, but not outside the range of typical seasonal variance.
http://guava.ca/

The headline item is the lack of listings. 16k total, with 9k new. Versus total/new listings that are usually 40%/20% higher.
Days on market continues to move higher for all districts, despite that lack of listings.

I think the million dollar question is, why so few listings? My guess is that borderline sellers are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see which way the market is trending? I dunno. Just a guess.

 

[interested]

I think there are a few interesting points in the data.
If I am interpreting correctly:
Talking about the central core: sales to active listings has increased towards 40+%. Good and tending to favour sellers as balanced is 30%. Once at 50% most would agree it is a sellers market.
Median price is up which is more telling than average price since a lot of people have speculated and said that the high end if not the luxury market has picked up and this will skew the average upward as Ka1 suggests. Even the median will get pulled up but to a lesser degree 3.4% than the average price increase of 5%.
So this would suggest there are more higher priced sales have occurred.

However, I am intrigued that listings still are exceeding sales. The real question is what is going to come to market in spring. If people stay put and not a lot of product hits the market, then logic would dictate prices will not fall. If on the other hand, there is a marked increase in listings, and especially if sales continue to lag last years numbers, the reverse may occur.

So in summary, I at least am no wiser with Nov's numbers than I was with Oct's.

Neither side seems to be getting a leg up on the debate as to what will happen going forward.

 

[Eug]

All we can really say is that the crash that some people were predicting for 2010 H2 won't happen.

I'm sure some will reset that prediction for 2011 H2 (like they have been yearly since the early to mid 2000s).

Rinse, wash, repeat.

 

[interested]

All we can really say is that the crash that some people were predicting for 2010 H2 won't happen.

I'm sure some will reset that prediction for 2011 H2 (like they have been yearly since the early to mid 2000s).Rinse, wash, repeat.

OMG, are we going to conclude CG is right yet again??

I'm happy if I am wrong and optimism carries the day. Of course, just when you think you are cruising along well, something will happen and knock the stuffing out of the market. I still expect a gradual decline. Just putting it out there. "Rinse, wash, repeat" as you say Eug

 

[JayBee]

I must be one of the few who said....since day 1...."I have no idea what's going to happen". Looks like I'm right I do think like most of you are saying, there will be a decline...just not a "OMG the sky is falling" kind of drop that many had and have predicted. I could be wrong but I'm not going to predict a market that seems to have a mind of its own.

 

[interested]

That's the thing with the market.
Right now one could very effectively argue that it is defying logic and common sense.
Eventually, and that is what most of us think, fundamentals will come back into play and there should be a realignment (read drop).
I agree I don't think a crash. But the reality is most people don't see "crashes coming" .
And when they do, and they are hailed as visionaries, further inspection reveals that they have often made and continue to make wrong predictions but by predicting extreme events, every so often they are proven right.
Anyhow, I would be happy with a pause or even a slight decline so long as it is not a rapid "crash".
One thing for sure, if you make no predictions, no one will be able to say you wrong. LOL

 

[KA1]

OMG, are we going to conclude CG is right yet again??

Yes.

I have always been a fan of CG. Hopefully, he will back to the thread.

 

[interested]

Yes.

I have always been a fan of CG. Hopefully, he will back to the thread.

I too like CG. Whether I agree or agree to disagree with him, he is always respectful and voices an opinion.
More often than not, it is contrary to the majority on the thread but it isn't easy to fly in face of the storm.
So I too hope he bestows us with future pearls of wisdom.

Common CG, let us know you are coming back. We are really quite sure you are still reading this forum even if not responding.

 

[aguduser]

Forget about CG already! As stated before, I respected his opinions and his providing current info about the market on this forum. But I don't like it that he ditched the whole forum just because he was mad at one person! Too big a pride!

 

[daveto]

All we can really say is that the crash that some people were predicting for 2010 H2 won't happen.

I'm sure some will reset that prediction for 2011 H2 (like they have been yearly since the early to mid 2000s).

Rinse, wash, repeat.

Eug, I think it depends how one defines a "crash". I don't think anyone was predicting a price crash in 2010 H2. RE prices are slow to move, whether up or down. But if one looks at $volume (sales times prices), seasonally adjusted, we are down 20% YOY 2010 H2 from 2009 H2, and more than that 2010 H2 from H1. I look at what has happened 2010 H2 as a confirmation of what we bears expected.

 

[KA1]

Forget about CG already! As stated before, I respected his opinions and his providing current info about the market on this forum. But I don't like it that he ditched the whole forum just because he was mad at one person! Too big a pride!

Tell me, who hasn't made a decision in a huff only to wish, later, that it had not been so.

I, for one, has ovelooked his this hasty decision. He is more than welcome back.

 

[aguduser]

Urbanation's 2011 Condominium Apartment Forecast for the Toronto CMA" just out today:

"Despite a mild summer for new condominium apartment sales in the
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), sales at several new project
launches in October were very strong and the CMA remains on pace for
the second highest annual sales total on record.

The 19,000 new condominium sales projected for 2010 are well back of
the 22,654 sales recorded in 2007, but top the approximately 14,500
sales realized in both 2008 and 2009. Based on historical data published
in Urbanation’s quarterly Condominium Market Survey, we believe that
16,000 – 17,000 annual new condominium apartment sales is a
sustainable level of sales for the CMA. As will be the case at the end of
2010, the Toronto CMA market has the capability to absorb more than
16,000 – 17,000 units on an annual basis, but the major problem lies in
financing and building such a high volume of suites. Secondarily, there
are concerns that the number of tenants with the financial wherewithal
to afford these high-rent suites offered by the ever increasing share of
investors will inevitably shrink as more units are delivered, and prices in
the new condominium market continue to rise rapidly.

The trepidation regarding condominium apartment tenants has been
fodder for analysts in this market for several years, however with
approximately 18,000 condominium completions in the CMA in 2010
(almost twice as many as 2009), there will be much greater competition
for these tenants than ever before. However, Urbanation does not
believe that these factors will have a significant dampening on new
condominium sales in 2011.

From discussions with developers and brokers, there is confidence that
no major correction in sales or pricing is forthcoming, and they plan on
bringing 15,000 to 16,000 new condominium units to market next year..."

 

[interested]

Urbanation's 2011 Condominium Apartment Forecast for the Toronto CMA" just out today:

"Despite a mild summer for new condominium apartment sales in the
Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), sales at several new project
launches in October were very strong and the CMA remains on pace for
the second highest annual sales total on record.

The 19,000 new condominium sales projected for 2010 are well back of
the 22,654 sales recorded in 2007, but top the approximately 14,500
sales realized in both 2008 and 2009. Based on historical data published
in Urbanation’s quarterly Condominium Market Survey, we believe that
16,000 – 17,000 annual new condominium apartment sales is a
sustainable level of sales for the CMA. As will be the case at the end of
2010, the Toronto CMA market has the capability to absorb more than
16,000 – 17,000 units on an annual basis, but the major problem lies in
financing and building such a high volume of suites. Secondarily, there
are concerns that the number of tenants with the financial wherewithal
to afford these high-rent suites offered by the ever increasing share of
investors will inevitably shrink as more units are delivered, and prices in
the new condominium market continue to rise rapidly.
The trepidation regarding condominium apartment tenants has been
fodder for analysts in this market for several years, however with
approximately 18,000 condominium completions in the CMA in 2010
(almost twice as many as 2009), there will be much greater competition
for these tenants than ever before. However, Urbanation does not
believe that these factors will have a significant dampening on new
condominium sales in 2011.

From discussions with developers and brokers, there is confidence that
no major correction in sales or pricing is forthcoming, and they plan on
bringing 15,000 to 16,000 new condominium units to market next year..."

Good to see someone at least talking about fundamentals, a relationship between rent and cost, and most importantly, recognizing the question of who can afford the rents to justify the present prices.

 

[interested]

Tell me, who hasn't made a decision in a huff only to wish, later, that it had not been so.

I, for one, has ovelooked his this hasty decision. He is more than welcome back.

Agree.


Although I have never made a hasty decision in a huff only to wish later it had not been so. NOT!