I largely agree with Northern Light’s list of failures. Even the things that were done right were done wrong. It looks like for instance the Federal government went way overboard on income subsidies in the first wave. Personal income actually rose 11 % in the second quarter. The problem with...

With deaths predictably rising now in Ontario along with the greater case count it’s worth revisiting a thought I suggested earlier in that if deaths in the second wave can be kept to half the rate of the first wave (say 1500) we are making good progress. The greater number of cases in the...

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-the-evidence-is-conclusive-canada-cant-beat-the-pandemic-by-passing/ From the article mentions examples of how governments at all levels are complicit of passing-the-buck and political opportunism. Specific to our conversation Ford’s...

I’m still watching the German numbers as a proxi for Ontario. That’s how I was confident in predicting earlier that we would be pushing towards 2000 cases a day The difference seemingly between competent Western European nations such as Germany (France and England for instance are in the...

The Ford government’s failure here though stems from failure point two I mentioned: taking a balanced approach. Perhaps not appreciated here but Ford is trying to balance small business interests with health concerns. These concerns are not unfounded. People’s lives are being ruined. Families...

Provincial modelling comes out today. I’m not understanding why the health team was optimistic last time modelling was released. Any laymen could sense there was no reason for optimism then and that the resulting new health tier system was nonsensical. I wouldn’t call it a scandal I would...

I think 2000 cases a day is our optimist track. That’s where I supposed we would be in the first or second week of November. Start completing your Christmas preparations now. Stock up with a 60-day supply of home essentials. Observation from the media numbers: Ontario completed high 20k...

All the suggestions about making a more practical vaccine are valid; however, one of many fundamental questions was definitively answered. That's a big step. As I mentioned the government will certainly botch the implementation. I would doubt Canada would get an effective vaccine to people...

That initial Pfizer vaccine effectiveness claim is incredibly encouraging. While there are logistic concerns it shows vaccination is so effective it validates our public health measure response. The really important data though is vaccine effectiveness for the elderly. If you can effectively...

Once this goes parabolic (Alberta just stopped contact tracing because there are too many cases), the next thing Canada will screw up is the distribution of vaccines. It will be some wishy-washy prioritization program with delayed roll-out of months securing doses. Within groupings it will...

The daily case count is just going to keep creeping up. I was overly pessimistic earlier in this thread as I suggested Canada would creep up to 5000-6000 daily cases in the first weeks of November as a best-case scenario. I still believe this will happen but the creep is a little flatter...

There are many definitions of intelligence: Some would say a person is intelligent if they are endowed with knowledge and wisdom Others would say someone is intelligent if they get what they want. I would say that there are two fundamental problem-solving paradigms: The first is a...

Asides from the necessity of extracting Trump because he’s a monster I don’t see a blue wave as a desirable outcome. I see two primary purposes to voting: exercising a check on power, and having a representative diversity of interests contribute to the balance of power dynamic. Populism seems...

I think faced with uncertainty people try to ascribe scapegoat reasoning (the basis of superstition) instead of just accepting and observing reality. A lot of people just don’t care as much about the things you care about. That’s not hate, it’s a different set of priorities. I mentioned in a...

So we are not going back to a modified stage two according to the new system unless case positivity is above 10 percent. It’s a regional system but for Ontario as a whole that would look like 2500 cases a day at current testing levels, 5000 per day at promised levels, and 10,000 per day at...

As I mentioned in previous posts we can certainly sustain a higher case load now than in the spring; however, there is a difference between becoming resigned to a level of community spread and complacency. The danger and test is to juggle living with sustained community spread and tipping into...

It seems a stage two of some kind is sustainable but a stage three is not. I’m still not getting why Ontario seems to be rushing back to loosening restrictions. The Provincial health team claimed evidence that we are not currently tracking explosive growth; however, they haven’t presented any...

Wait, are there two dangerous miscommunications going on fooling people including our own leaders? 1) The regional breakdowns in OUTBREAKS are being used as justification to insinuate that bars and restaurants and gyms are not the sources of infection. The graphs compare OUTBREAKS not cases...

Looking over Chicago and Toronto on google maps at the same macro scale you can see that Chicago is an urban centre at the core of a massive geographic catchment. It must have one of the largest urban and exurban and satellite catchment areas in the world extending out to cities like Kansas...

Reading over the recent posts in this thread it struck me that regardless of your position on the subject now, with each passing month it becomes just that little bit harder to argue Toronto and neighbours (whatever you want to call it) isn’t a continuous urban conglomerate.