[The Condo Observer]

Thanks for the posting, digitalis...A couple of positives from it, that both 1BE and Trump Int'l are safe...With that much turbulence in the markets, this is the end of the condo, office building boom as we know it...

Yeah, you might be right....with the credit markets dry, and uncertainty how we will be affected by other country's messy finances, I have to wonder how many of the projects currently in early or pre- sales will actually get financing to be built.

Would this mean that existing condos might hold their own in terms of pricing, as the supply side is now constrained?

 

[XXIV/VII]

What I would like to see, instead of these buildings going un-constructed, is a return to the lower price point for these units before they raised them. A Hey, Look At That Economy, We Can't Afford To Screw You Anymore Sale.

 

[pancsi]

I don't understand this view that builders are screwing everyone or that they are greedy. This is a business. They are in this business to make money. To sell something for a price lower than what others are willing to pay is stupid.

 

[urbandreamer]

The scary reality is that debtbubble is probably right.

 

[Dichotomy]

Its 70 out of 612...


Really 70 seems a lot but it is 88.5 % sold...

Whether the reality is 11% unsold or more, isn't the greater issue now (considering the state of the market and the fact nearly every economist is now talking recession) how many of those 'sold' units will actually be able to close?
I don't even want to think about how much money I have lost in this month alone on my mutual funds. My partner just bailed last night and took all of his money out - all of it. If we had invested in real estate (which thank Gawd we did not) we would have substantially less money today than six months ago to close a deal.

HOW MANY OF THOSE FEW HUNDRED UNITS ARE IN THE SAME BOAT?

Doom and gloom or not - that is the reality. My amusement of a month ago has turned to depression. I've skipped panic. It's too late for that.

 

[Dichotomy]

What I would like to see, instead of these buildings going un-constructed, is a return to the lower price point for these units before they raised them. A Hey, Look At That Economy, We Can't Afford To Screw You Anymore Sale.

Joking aside, builders may have to face that hard reality if they want to close enough units to secure their financing. Bankers operate on a debt/equity ratio. If someone cannot raise any more funds (ie, lost them in the markets), then they may only be able to close if the builder lowers the selling price. Banks are tightening up their credit requirements like crazy.

2008 is not going to close the way it opened. I think we all realize that now.

 

[Johnzz]

The biggest issue will be selling the hotel component (18 floors).

Without this sale, any hope of financing will be lost.

 

[Solaris]

....................... as we continue to wait for the long anticipated hotel operator announcement

"Further details, along with information about a five-star European hotel that plans to set up shop in the same future mixed-use development, should be announced in the next few weeks..." Michael Gold, Bazis International Inc.

 

[cdr108]

Yeah, you might be right....with the credit markets dry, and uncertainty how we will be affected by other country's messy finances, I have to wonder how many of the projects currently in early or pre- sales will actually get financing to be built.

Would this mean that existing condos might hold their own in terms of pricing, as the supply side is now constrained?

I was pondering the same thing.
If Toronto's construction boom continued, it would make any correction much more severe because of over-supply issues. However, the flip side will be how confident purchasers will be in a global economic credit crunch.

 

[The Condo Observer]

I was pondering the same thing.
If Toronto's construction boom continued, it would make any correction much more severe because of over-supply issues. However, the flip side will be how confident purchasers will be in a global economic credit crunch.

I do take some comfort that , according to Urbanation, about 70 percent of condo purchasers are end users, and not speculators. This brings an added measure of stability to the market. My gut feeling is that good product in the core will do well in the long term. The action is now on the periphery - North York, Etobicoke lakeshore etc. It must have something to do with the cost of land. That's why we are seeing so many super-prime buildings springing up in the core. These super prime buildings seem to appeal to wealthy foreign investors, and not the "Forest Hill and Rosedale" empty nesters...Boy am I rambling today.

 

[urbandreamer]

^Rambling? No, you've merely swallowed the kool-aid....

I'd imagine the last 2 weeks have been BRUTAL on the condo sales front in Toronto; aka, disastrous. If you're a foreign buyer, or even a local kid using daddy's money as a down payment, and daddy or mr foreigner has seen a 40% drop in his (stock-related) investments, would either be in the mood for a condo purchase? Doubtful.

I am gonna predict a MASSIVE downturn in real estate sales this month in Toronto, especially in the condo sector. I'm talking about a 50% decline.

 

[androiduk]

^ Internet sales of my artwork for the last 3 years has always been a good barometer of how the economy is doing. My sales were pretty decent last month but so far this month, they're down about 75%. For long term stock market investors such as myself, the current market conditions don't have too much of an effect but for people who rely on the markets for a monthly income or for those retiring now it's disasterous. Also, people who might cash in their stocks to buy a condo would be crazy to do so right now. They may have to wait a year before things start to recover.

 

[Automation Gallery]

Intresting article on CBC.Makes you wonder if Bazis is one of the new kids on the block.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/10/08/tto-condos.html

 

[Mongo]

To me, this is the significant portion of that article:

Projects already being built don't appear to be in any danger of grinding to a halt, said Jane Renwick, executive vice president of Urbanation, a condo consulting firm. [...] The "A" locations — the ones downtown, or near subway lines and being built by proven developers — aren't affected.

 

[Johnzz]

1 Bloor has NOT started construction.