The 905 has a few swing or bellweather ridings. Oakville, Halton and Burlington have their own unique voting habits. While it has been described that these three ridings are "safe" Conservative ridings, they have all voted Liberal federally in the past 15 years. Burlington has only had a Conservative MPP for two or three generations but it did have a Liberal MP for 13 years during the Chretien and Martin governments. Oakville's MP has squeaked by to stay Liberal while Halton has elected both and each of its MPs in recent years are turncoats. It elected Gary Carr, Conservative MPP as a Liberal MP in 2004 and then Carr lost to Conservative MP Garth Turner in 2006 who later left the Conservatives and became a Liberal after a brief rest as an independent. Who knows where the cards will fall next time.
It has been said that most of the immigration and new Canadians living in Misssauga and Brampton became Canadians under the Liberals. As such, many authors have noted that they have life-long Liberal voting patterns despite some of their personal beliefs aligning more closely to those of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. These statements, of course, are major generalizations and broadstrokes are usually reliable but not all that accurate at the same time. But as demographics shift, new policies change and places like Oakville and Burlington become more populated by Immigrants (who may or may not have the same voting behaviour as those in Brampton, for example) the dynamic changes once again. Also, there is an argument for incumbent advantage.
History is a telling indicator of voting intention but in close races where the tally is usually within 5% or less and the turnout hovers around 60% or lower, there is a significant margin of error for the past repeating itself safely. So while it looks like most of the 905 ridings to the west will probably remain status quo it is important to remember that things are not always as they seem. The population has changed since 2006, the vote in 2004 is still in people's minds and a lot of the same players will not be returning for a third time in 2008?2009? or whenever the writ is dropped.
The 416, however, will never vote Conservative federally. The day St. Pauls goes Blue will be the same day Lake Ontario is drained, scrubbed down and refilled with clean water. Of course, that day will be the day that the Rhino Party is given a majority and the rest of us are high on LSD and jelly beans. Beaches, Trinity-Spadina and that riding in Etibicoke that Sam Bulte used to have will be tight races between the Liberals and the NDP, however.
In the East, in the 905, it will be interesting to see Oshawa vote after the GM fiasco and the surrounding area.