I posted this on another forum, and I have a positive feeling that there will be a Liberal minority government propped up by a coalition.
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There are a lot of ridings where Conservatives didn't win over the Liberals, NDP, and Greens.
According to records, this makes 62 ridings where the Conservatives won by plurality, of which nearly 40 are purely Liberal/NDP votes. Currently there are 77 Liberals and 36 NDP MP's seated. This yields 113, and 155 is needed for a majority. The Bloc has 47, and with the current setup they certainly can form a government without an election...
So, in order for conditions to radically change in favor of "The Harper Government" the Liberals would have to perform less favorably than they did under Dion. I fail to see how Ignatieff would deliver an election performance less than that, I think it is impossible.
So the worst case scenario is another minority where a coalition occurs. I think this time there will be a coalition if Harper garners another minority. I don't see Harper getting a majority for several reasons:
*Harper has pretty major scandal on his hands now, it will be an election issue and a campaign issue
*People don't love Ignatieff, but he is well positioned to perform above and beyond Dion. I think it is impossible for Ignatieff to deliver a poorer result than Dion, considering how single-tracked Dion's Green Shift was and how poorly he campaigned
*Over a million Liberals sat out the election in 2008, mostly because of how bad Dion ran the campaign and there was no energy for the election in any capacity. Source for the million is a CBC article of which I can't find the link to at the moment. A large percentage of these voters are going to come out for Ignatieff. Especially in Ontario and possibly even some ridings in Quebec.
*The NDP is in a weaker position this election. The past two elections have included a lot of soft Liberals who voted NDP to punish the Liberals. They were punishing the Liberals in 2006 for Sponsorship and other scandal. They were punishing Liberals in 2008 mostly because of the same thing plus lack of faith in Dion. Jack Layton was seen as a strong, competent leader vs Dion. A large percent of "soft Liberals" that voted NDP are coming back to the red door, and they are as sick of Harper as any other group is and understand what is going on. The problem is that I haven't seen numbers in polling of how large this group is, but I feel it is larger than we think.
So added up, I think the NDP will have a net loss, the Liberals will have a net gain, and the Conservatives will maintain similar numbers. I believe a coalition government will occur with the Liberals and NDP officially signing a deal, along with a Bloc conditional agreement not to vote against Liberal/NDP budgets for several years.
That is my projection as of now.
39 ridings where the Liberal + NDP vote is stronger than Conservative from 2008:
Riding / Incumbent
Egmont Gail Shea Conservative/Conservateur
South Shore--St. Margaret's Gerald Keddy ** Conservative/Conservateur
West Nova/Nova-Ouest Greg Kerr Conservative/Conservateur
Fredericton Keith Ashfield Conservative/Conservateur
Miramichi Tilly O'Neill-Gordon Conservative/Conservateur
Saint John Rodney Weston Conservative/Conservateur
Ahuntsic Maria Mourani ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Alfred-Pellan Robert Carrier ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Brome--Missisquoi Christian Ouellet ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Gatineau Richard Nadeau ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Haute-Gaspésie--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia Jean-Yves Roy ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Jeanne-Le Ber Thierry St-Cyr ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Laval Nicole Demers ** Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Pontiac Lawrence Cannon ** Conservative/Conservateur
Saint-Lambert Josée Beaudin Bloc Québécois/Bloc Québécois
Brant Phil McColeman Conservative/Conservateur
Essex Jeff Watson ** Conservative/Conservateur
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Pierre Lemieux ** Conservative/Conservateur
Haldimand--Norfolk Diane Finley ** Conservative/Conservateur
Huron--Bruce Ben Lobb Conservative/Conservateur
Kenora Greg Rickford Conservative/Conservateur
Kitchener Centre/Kitchener-Centre Stephen Woodworth Conservative/Conservateur
Kitchener--Waterloo Peter Braid Conservative/Conservateur
London West/London-Ouest Ed Holder Conservative/Conservateur
Mississauga--Erindale Bob Dechert Conservative/Conservateur
Oak Ridges--Markham Paul Calandra Conservative/Conservateur
Oshawa Colin Carrie ** Conservative/Conservateur
Ottawa--Orléans Royal Galipeau ** Conservative/Conservateur
Ottawa West--Nepean/Ottawa-Ouest--Nepean John Baird ** Conservative/Conservateur
St. Catharines Rick Dykstra ** Conservative/Conservateur
Saint Boniface/Saint-Boniface Shelly Glover Conservative/Conservateur
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River/Desnethé--Missinippi--Rivière Churchill Rob Clarke ** Conservative/Conservateur
Palliser Ray Boughen Conservative/Conservateur
Saskatoon--Rosetown--Biggar Kelly Block Conservative/Conservateur
Fleetwood--Port Kells Nina Grewal ** Conservative/Conservateur
North Vancouver Andrew Saxton Conservative/Conservateur
Saanich--Gulf Islands Gary Lunn ** Conservative/Conservateur
Surrey North/Surrey-Nord Dona Cadman Conservative/Conservateur
Nunavut Leona Aglukkaq Conservative/Conservateur
23 ridings where the Liberal + NDP + Green vote is greater than Conservative from 2008:
Riding / Incumbent
Central Nova/Nova-Centre Peter Gordon MacKay ** Conservative/Conservateur
Ancaster--Dundas--Flamborough--Westdale David Sweet ** Conservative/Conservateur
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Larry Miller ** Conservative/Conservateur
Burlington Mike Wallace ** Conservative/Conservateur
Cambridge Gary Goodyear ** Conservative/Conservateur
Chatham-Kent--Essex Dave Van Kesteren ** Conservative/Conservateur
Elgin--Middlesex--London Joe Preston ** Conservative/Conservateur
Halton Lisa Raitt Conservative/Conservateur
Kitchener--Conestoga Harold Albrecht ** Conservative/Conservateur
Newmarket--Aurora Lois Brown Conservative/Conservateur
Niagara Falls Rob Nicholson ** Conservative/Conservateur
Northumberland--Quinte West Rick Norlock ** Conservative/Conservateur
Oakville Terence Young Conservative/Conservateur
Perth--Wellington Gary Ralph Schellenberger ** Conservative/Conservateur
Peterborough Dean Del Mastro ** Conservative/Conservateur
Simcoe North/Simcoe-Nord Bruce Stanton ** Conservative/Conservateur
Thornhill Peter Kent Conservative/Conservateur
Winnipeg South/Winnipeg-Sud Rod Bruinooge ** Conservative/Conservateur
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre Laurie Hawn ** Conservative/Conservateur
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo Cathy McLeod Conservative/Conservateur
Nanaimo--Alberni James Lunney ** Conservative/Conservateur
Vancouver Island North/ÃŽle de Vancouver-Nord John Duncan Conservative/Conservateur
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country John Weston Conservative/Conservateur
Source:
http://web.ncf.ca/at319/temp/coalition.xls
2011 Projection
"The Harper Government" - 130
Liberals - 115
NDP - 20 (yes, I think the NDP will take it's biggest hit in over a decade in 2011)
Bloc - 43 (yes, I think the Liberals will rebound in Quebec for
a few ridings, particularly around Montreal. Sponsorship is the distant past in political years now)
The two Edmonton ridings I'm going to be watching closely:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton—Mill_Woods—Beaumont
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton_Centre