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I don't think we have to worry too much about a two party system. The only party right now that isn't in favour of moving towards some form of proportional representation is the Conservatives. Assuming the Liberals and NDP can agree on the type of PR, if the Cons lose the election there will be broad support in Parliament for electoral reform, and PR tends to lead to more choice come election time rather than less.
 
BurlOak said:
The problem for the Liberals is that if Mulcair becomes PM, then we may move towards a 2 party system with NDP and Conservatives being the 2 parties. They could take the chance that Mulcair will fail as badly as Bob Rae did in early 1990's Ontario and the NDP would dissappear for a generation. However, if the NDP does half decent, the Liberals will continue their decline.

If they leave Harper in power, then the NDP still does not get the attention and the appearance that they can actually govern. Even now, the Liberals as a third party get as much attention as the NDP. If Harper stumbles, and if the Alberta NDP stumbles, people could easily revert back to having the Liberals as the natural alternative to the Conservatives.
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We've always had a two party system in a way; the Conservatives have relied on a dedicated, but static base. While the NDP and Liberal's have shared an common base of voters that swing back and forth depending on the issues, social trends and changing demographic of that base.

The NDP fall in Ontario was one half economy and other half pure vile hate of socialism that only Ontarian's can spew that was the downfall of Rae. But even if the NDP lose Ontario again to the Liberals, the Liberals have lost Quebec and B.C., and I doubt they can really rid the Conservative of their riding's in Ontario to form even a strong minority government.
 
CodeMonkey said:
We've always had a two party system in a way; the Conservatives have relied on a dedicated, but static base. While the NDP and Liberal's have shared an common base of voters that swing back and forth depending on the issues, social trends and changing demographic of that base.
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Back when they were the *Progressive* Conservatives, their base wasn't so static. And even what's presently presumed to be "static" might not be so static as it appears--especially as evidenced through provincial results (not just Notley's Alberta, but consider all the surprise gains of and incursions into PC country by the Ontario Libs and even ONDP last year)
 
So some new numbers have come in before the weekend. Forum is at it again, but this time there numbers are much more consistent of the trend before last week. Current poll has NDP at 34% and CPC and Libs tied 27%, with BQ at 7% and Green at 5% respectfully. Ekos is also in on the action before the weekend with NDP at 33%, CPC 29%, Libs at 24%, BQ at 5% with the Greens at the oddly high 7%.

So the forum number is exactly what I thought, last week was just an oddity while we are back to a +5/+8 advantage for the NDP. It's the one thing that annoys me with forum. I think they try to do the best they can and odd throw away stats come once in a while but i find wild swings like last week is 9 out of 10 times a glitch and it goes back to normal. But the click bait is so strong that they always exaggerate the story. Ekos I don't have high confidence in. I will list them on my chart, but they seem to always over shoot Greens numbers. Ekos the only poll that has the Green up to 7%, they actually had the Greens in double digits as of April.

My current polling
Ipsos (Jun 23) CPC 28.... NDP 35... Lib 29... Blc 06... Grn 02
Abacus (Jul 6) CPC 29... NDP 32... Lib 27... Blc 06... Grn 06
Forum (Jul 14) CPC 27... NDP 34... Lib 27... Blc 07... Grn 05
Ekos (Jul 14) CPC 29... NDP 33... Lib 24... Blc 05... Grn 07
MY Total: CPC 28... NDP 34... Lib 28... Blc 06... Grn 04

On a quick note on Conservative ads. We could have a tournament on who most annoying CPC actor in their attack ads. The Finals has to be corperate "He's not ready" douche vs. Concerned mom about pot.
 
Too bad the Green Party would be spread out across Canada. If they were more concentrated, like the Bloc, they could have a better chance in getting more than one seat, maybe seats (plural).
 
Or rather, we move to mixed-member proportionality system, add a few seats and have those seats be accommodated as close to the popular vote as possible.

MMP has always been my favorite variant of PR. The vote ballot is very simple and straightforward too, as exampled here (riding candidate on the left, party vote on the right). I'd like to see it adopted federally and provincially in Canada.

edit: Here is the ballot in New Zealand, who also uses the MMP system.
 
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StatGeek said:
On a quick note on Conservative ads. We could have a tournament on who most annoying CPC actor in their attack ads. The Finals has to be corperate "He's not ready" douche vs. Concerned mom about pot.
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I would have suggest to make it a drinking game. Every time you see the CPC "He's not ready" advertisement for one day, you take a shot of whiskys. But I soon realized that we'll all be dead from alcohol poisoning before the evening news airs. :rolleyes:
 
CodeMonkey said:
I would have suggest to make it a drinking game. Every time you see the CPC "He's not ready" advertisement for one day, you take a shot of whiskys. But I soon realized that we'll all be dead from alcohol poisoning before the evening news airs. :rolleyes:
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It would be a great stimulus program for Ontario though. Think of all the extra money the Province would get from all that alcohol!

Then we can deal with months of Canada's Economic Action Plan ad's touting the PC's ad as a stimulus project!
 
Videodrome said:
Has any polling on individual ridings been done or is it too early?
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308.com has a pretty good riding by riding breakdown, but the sample sizes are likely extremely low considering most of the polls have had around 1000-2000 respondents.
 
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