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How many non-incumbent winners will there be on council?

  • Total voters
    22
  • Poll closed .
https://www.thestar.com/news/toront...ge-in-scarborough-southwest-council-race.html

"Crawford didn’t respond to requests to provide comments for this article."

I found this interesting. Why wouldn't he reply when he's going against an incumbent who won her ward handily and there are a number of strong, local people running? There are so few people in this race compared to some others which makes you think he'd want to talk.

Also, how many others don't live in the ward they represent? He's out in the rouge from what I've seen, 2 wards away and with no office in his ward, as far as I know.
 
Advance voting numbers (source in graphic):

2EnQrbK
 
That's pretty terrible for Ward 10, Spadina-Fort York. While it's around the median for the city, it's the most populous ward. 4,500 voters in a ward with 160,000 people is awful. I expected low turnout given the Bill 5 confusion but this is just horrendous. Typically, e-day turnout tends to be roughly 2 to 3 times the early vote turnout.
 
mjl08 said:
I expect Layton to win with a bigger plurality than Cressy. Layton has fewer strong candidates nipping at his heals.
Click to expand...

Though even with Vuong at the top of the heap, Cressy's "strong candidate" opponents basically cancel each other out.


(Who'd be Layton's strongest opponent? Joyce Rowlands? Haven't really been into Rosedale to check)
 
MetroMan said:
That's pretty terrible for Ward 10, Spadina-Fort York. While it's around the median for the city, it's the most populous ward. 4,500 voters in a ward with 160,000 people is awful. I expected low turnout given the Bill 5 confusion but this is just horrendous. Typically, e-day turnout tends to be roughly 2 to 3 times the early vote turnout.
Click to expand...
I think it may have to do to the fact that a lot of this area is brand new condos with renters or new owners, students or temporary foreign workers that don't really have a stake in the city and neighbourhood yet. As well, maybe a lot of the new condos are not permanent residences or just investor owned. Just some thoughts on why its so low in a high population area. What do you think?
 
mjl08 said:
I tip my hat to Vuong who seems to be putting on a good fight. If he were still running against Malik in the old ward he probably would have won.
Click to expand...

I guess I can reveal something about the early race since it's not the one we're running now. Kevin started the race as a virtual unknown. In May, Ausma Malik was on target to beating him by over 30%. By the time Bill 5 hit in July, Kevin was ahead of Malik by 7 points, en route to winning the election. It's a testament to how strong he has turned out to be as a candidate.

Of course, this is now a race against an incumbent. I can't reveal any data regarding the current race but I can say that Cressy doesn't have a lock. An overwhelming number of people are undecided with less than a week to go. If the incumbent hasn't got this locked in by now, it tells you that a lot of people are considering their alternatives.

Jacob Lisgar said:
I think it may have to do to the fact that a lot of this area is brand new condos with renters or new owners, students or temporary foreign workers that don't really have a stake in the city and neighbourhood yet. As well, maybe a lot of the new condos are not permanent residences or just investor owned. Just some thoughts on why its so low in a high population area. What do you think?
Click to expand...

All those are factors. However, what stands out to me is how many people are still undecided at this point. People don't go to early votes if they still haven't figured out who to vote for.
 
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MetroMan said:
I guess I can reveal something about the early race since it's not the one we're running now. Kevin started the race as a virtual unknown. In May, Ausma Malik was on target to beating him by over 30%. By the time Bill 5 hit in July, Kevin was ahead of Malik by 7 points, en route to winning the election. It's a testament to how strong he has turned out to be as a candidate.

Of course, this is now a race against an incumbent. I can't reveal any data regarding the current race but I can say that Cressy doesn't have a lock. An overwhelming number of people are undecided with less than a week to go. If the incumbent hasn't got this locked in by now, it tells you that a lot of people are considering their alternatives.



All those are factors. However, what stands out to me is how many people are still undecided at this point. People don't go to early votes if they still haven't figured out who to vote for.
Click to expand...
By July, Kevin was ahead of Malik by 7 points? Where does this number come from? En route to winning the election? You already knew that in July? There was still almost 3 months to go before the election. Municipal elections are notoriously late in gearing up - seriously, most people don't take any interest in candidates until several weeks before the election. I'll give Vuong credit for pounding the pavement, but to unseat Cressy, who has the NDP machine working for him, in a provincial NDP riding is hard to imagine.
 
Part 2 of Toronto Star endorsements:

https://www.thestar.com/amp/opinion...-toronto-needs.html?__twitter_impression=true

Ward 13, Toronto Centre: Kristyn Wong-Tam
Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth: Paula Fletcher
Ward 15, Don Valley West: Jon Burnside
Ward 16, Don Valley East: David Caplan
Ward 17, Don Valley North: Shelley Carroll
Ward 18, Willowdale: Lily Cheng
Ward 19, Beaches-East York: Matthew Kellway
Ward 20, Scarborough Southwest: Suman Roy
Ward 21, Scarborough Centre: Michael Thompson
Ward 22, Scarborough-Agincourt: Norm Kelly
Ward 23, Scarborough North: Felicia Samuel
Ward 24, Scarborough-Guildwood: Paul Ainslie
Ward 25, Scarborough-Rouge Park: Neethan Shan
 
mjl08 said:
Ward 20, Scarborough Southwest: Suman Roy
Click to expand...

I live in Ward 20 and honestly I cannot see anyone voting for Suman Roy (who is a virtual nobody in this race), same goes for Paulina Corpuz. Mohsin Bhuyan and Gerard Arbour are the two fringe candidates who may actually stand a chance given the popularity of the incumbents.

Paulinas claim to fame is all the awards she has won but honestly I do not care if someone won Pinoy of the year. She would do well in a Filipino dominated area but not in Scarborough Southwest. Suman Roy is the candidate people like to talk about but really he is an absentee candidate.. he attends the debates but is not active in the riding.

Gerard Arbour stands a reasonable chance of winning. Michelle is not well liked in the riding given all her absenteeism and the recent support of the 25 ward election. She is in it for herself and the voters see that. Gary MIGHT win but he is a little too conservative for some people.

I can see a vote split between Gary and Michelle with Paulina, Mohsin, Suman pulling up the rear. Gerard is supported by the NDP and may do good if the vote is split 5 ways.
 
Yea, Roy was an odd pick. Interesting The Star selected Lily Cheng over Filion in Willowdale, citing the need for 'new blood,' yet was perfectly fine endorsing veterans like Augimeri and Kelly.

Again, I don't really know how important endorsements are in the big picture, but in close races where Toronto Star editorials are read at the breakfast table - St. Paul's and Beaches-East York come to mind - they could make a difference.
 
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Richard White said:
I live in Ward 20 and honestly I cannot see anyone voting for Suman Roy (who is a virtual nobody in this race), same goes for Paulina Corpuz. Mohsin Bhuyan and Gerard Arbour are the two fringe candidates who may actually stand a chance given the popularity of the incumbents.

Paulinas claim to fame is all the awards she has won but honestly I do not care if someone won Pinoy of the year. She would do well in a Filipino dominated area but not in Scarborough Southwest. Suman Roy is the candidate people like to talk about but really he is an absentee candidate.. he attends the debates but is not active in the riding.

Gerard Arbour stands a reasonable chance of winning. Michelle is not well liked in the riding given all her absenteeism and the recent support of the 25 ward election. She is in it for herself and the voters see that. Gary MIGHT win but he is a little too conservative for some people.

I can see a vote split between Gary and Michelle with Paulina, Mohsin, Suman pulling up the rear. Gerard is supported by the NDP and may do good if the vote is split 5 ways.
Click to expand...


Arbour got the Green party vote, which is quite funny considering his last name, but I haven't seen anything about the NDP. Do you have a link? And has anyone endorsed the incumbents? I have been wondering what Tory will do since both Crawford and Holland are on his team, but I expect he would endorse Crawford since he's the budget chief and the two seem to be seen together quite a bit. Arbour is definitely better known in the area compared to the other newbies. He has been a Bluffs advocate for quite some time, I think I met him at the TRCA meetings when they were talking about paving part of the beach and he is the one who got the new bus route from Victoria Park subway to the Scarborough U of T campus going. Of course Crawford took all the credit, just like he did with the bus that goes to Bluffers even though Ainslie was the one that got that going. Outside of him and the incumbents, I've never heard of the other candidates.
 
Lets be real for a minute. Scarborough Southwest is a battle of incumbents and also rans. I think the star doesn't like either incumbent and just picked their favorite candidate, and are not trying to pick the dandidate most likely to beat them since there reallyh isn;t a candidate like that.

My personal opinion is Gary Crawford is a better councilor than the star gives him credit for(i think Holland Beradinetti is pretty useless though) so I am a bit disappointed in that endorsement.
 
King of Kensington said:
Crisanti may be worse. Mikey seems to be the most decent member of the Ford family, for what it's worth.
Click to expand...

Well, Mikey certainly has a more benign personality than his criminal father, his fucked-up mess of a mother, his toxic uncles, his delusional harpy of a grandmother and his megalomaniac (and thankfully dead) grandfather. Which may be damning with faint praise, but there you go. Even so, it would be funny as hell to see him kicked out of office after all of dear ol' Unca Thug's meddling in the current election, especially if it could be pinpointed that Mikey lost in main part specifically because of Dofo's interference. Not that I'm expecting it, but it would serve Thug right.

Speaking of the Fords, I rode a bus through parts of Etobicoke last week, and was honestly disgusted to see signs up supporting Sandro Lisi in his (hopefully quixotic) run for school trustee. Have standards really deteriorated so far that minor league criminal hoodlums and scumbags of his ilk can make a credible run at whatever public offices happen to be available? Ah, who am I kidding? Of course they have...
 
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