[Richard White]

None of their "cost-saving" measures thus far are going to be cheap. (Carbon credit reimbursement, cancelled contracts, Hydro One CEO dismissal).
They're like people who borrow money to gamble. I mean, their rationale for all these "cost-saving" exercises thus far has been non-existent. So, basically along the lines of: "Lend me some loot, I know I'm going to win".

I mean you heard the chief: "...will result in 500,000 less pieces of paper....I'm saving the environment. I'm saving trees." What? Well thought out isn't exactly what they're going for.

It is typical fordism, slash and burn until there is nothing left. Look how things played out in Toronto, it took 4 years to undo all the problems Rob Ford caused cutting staff etc.

The budget freezes he initiated caused a hiring freeze for Toronto Police along with various other issues for the TTC. As a result we have less police officers and more people with guns. As for the TTC they are just making due but the streetcar system is being held together by duct tape (literally).

 

[zang]

The budget freezes he initiated caused a hiring freeze for Toronto Police along with various other issues for the TTC. As a result we have less police officers and more people with guns. As for the TTC they are just making due but the streetcar system is being held together by duct tape (literally).

Unfortunately, the Streetcar issue isn't Toronto's problem. If Bombardier would actually step up and meet even their own delivery expectations (we ordered the damn things 12 years ago and half barely a third of what were supposed to be delivered by now), we wouldn't be doing half bad. That the ALRV/CLRV street cars are still running more than a decade after their expected lives is a testament to both build quality and the mechanics department at the TTC. Once the majority of them are replaced, the repair budget was expected to shrink. Somehow, I think they may have their own issues in the long run.

 

[jje1000]

I wonder how a system like this might work, as I'm not very familiar with Councillor mechanics:

25 Councillors forming a pseudo-resurrected Metro Council, responsibilities are mainly city-wide duties.

Two Councillor office liaison teams for responsible for dealing with each ward's minor issues, each team is responsible for half the ward, meaning that there'll be around 50 teams for all the wards, pertaining roughly to the old Councillor count.

The liaison teams could be replaced by community councils in the future which might have more administrative power over local duties.

 

[Richard White]

I wonder how a system like this might work, as I'm not very familiar with Councillor mechanics:

25 Councillors forming a pseudo-resurrected Metro Council, responsibilities are mainly city-wide duties.

Two Councillor office liaison teams for responsible for dealing with each ward's minor issues, each team is responsible for half the ward, meaning that there'll be around 50 teams for all the wards, pertaining roughly to the old Councillor count.

The liaison teams could be replaced by community councils in the future which might have more administrative power over local duties.

So basically you want to implode the city?

 

[jje1000]

Well things are imploding anyways, so why not try something else?

The old 47-Councillor system fails to deal with city-wide issues, and the new 25-Councillor one destroys representation.

 

[Richard White]

Well things are imploding anyways, so why not try something else?

The old system fails to deal with city-wide issues, and the new one destroys representation.

Personally I prefer to go back to Metro Toronto. So much easier and Ford can have his sandbox.

 

[EagleEye]

So de Baeremaeker is trying to decide if he'll run in Paul Ainslie's ward and yesterday delivered flyers to Ainslie's entire ward regarding jobs at the TTC. He did this via his councillor's budget according to Ainslie who is not pleased. I would love to see him run in Ainslie's ward because I think he would lose.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

So de Baeremaeker is trying to decide if he'll run in Paul Ainslie's ward and yesterday delivered flyers to Ainslie's entire ward regarding jobs at the TTC. He did this via his councillor's budget according to Ainslie who is not pleased. I would love to see him run in Ainslie's ward because I think he would lose.

I did see Ainslie whine about this on twitter. I do think the race is Ainslie favored at least in terms of geography but I think De Baeremaeker can pull it off, and is probably preferable to fighting Thompson in Scarborough Center. I will do a riding breakdown on this tomorrow.

 

[OneCity]

I did see Ainslie whine about this on twitter. I do think the race is Ainslie favored at least in terms of geography but I think De Baeremaeker can pull it off, and is probably preferable to fighting Thompson in Scarborough Center. I will do a riding breakdown on this tomorrow.

Gloves are coming off everywhere. Id expect Ainslie to be favoured as he's been a solid ambassador for the ward and has a good name. I think if Glenn tried to run the campaign on transit with subway vs. LRT he won't see much gain in this area. It worked for Mitzie Hunter Provincially but this is one of the few if only Scarborough wards that is somewhat neutral in the transit debate and they stand to gain with the EELRT that Ainslie has fought had to keep alive.

 

[EagleEye]

I did see Ainslie whine about this on twitter. I do think the race is Ainslie favored at least in terms of geography but I think De Baeremaeker can pull it off, and is probably preferable to fighting Thompson in Scarborough Center. I will do a riding breakdown on this tomorrow.

I don't blame Ainslie for being ticked off. Remember when Rob Ford robocalled all of Ainslie's constituents because he changed his mind on the LRT? This is all just petty b.s.

As far as DeB having a shot, not if Guildwood residents have anything to say. They love him.

 

[Skeezix]

Personally I prefer to go back to Metro Toronto. So much easier and Ford can have his sandbox.

Because that system worked so well.

 

[Thorns_Embrace]

So lets look at the past two elections to see the results of the two elections 2010 and 2014.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2010#Ward_38:_Scarborough_Centre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2010#Ward_43:_Scarborough_East
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2014#Ward_38_-_Scarborough_Centre
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toronto_municipal_election,_2014#Ward_43_-_Scarborough_East

You will see that GDB had a slightly higher vote share in 2010 which in reality doesn't mean that much. Ainslie beat GDB by just over 4% in 2014 which is a bit more significant but not that big. However, it is also important to look at the # of people in the ridings and the number of voters. Ward 38 is a larger ward than ward 43 in terms of population
https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/u...ing_2016_Census_Profile_2014_Wards_Ward38.pdf
https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/u...ing_2016_Census_Profile_2014_Wards_Ward43.pdf
This is an over 13,000 person difference in GDBs favor. you can also tell that more people go and vote in ward 38. For example, despite Ainslie beating GDB by 4% in percentage, GDB had over 1000 more votes cast for him in 2014.

Now lets look at the provincial Scarborough Guildwood and compare it to the ward 38 and 43.

http://www.elections.ca/res/cir/maps2/mapprov.asp?map=35095&lang=e
https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/9855-W38map.pdf
https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/9888-W43map.pdf

Most of Ainslie's ward is in Scarborough-Guildwood with the exception of a small group of houses east of Morningside. Over half of De Baeremakers ward is in Scarborough Guildwood. However, everything west of McCowan is taken out and west of Bellamy if you are South of Lawrence. However the section taken out is actually pretty significant due to the condos near Scarborough town center being taken out and by non-professional calculation this section has a higher population density than the rest of the ward.

There is also a large section that belong to neither current ward 38 and 43. the section south of the railway tracks dear Markham road has a lot of large buildings and could make or break the riding. It has a lot of apartment buildings. However, it has a large immigrant population as well and many people would not be eligible to vote.

My overall view is it is slightly Ainslie favored due to having such a geographically favorable ward to run in. However, I think DeBaeremaker has a decent chance. Ainslie can't win the current GDB area due to his anti- subway stance and generally GDB is able to get a lot more media attention than Ainslie so he could swap dissatisfied voters easily. Ainslie has never had a legitimate challenger so I have a feeling he is not as popular as people think.

 

[King of Kensington]

Well things are imploding anyways, so why not try something else?

The old 47-Councillor system fails to deal with city-wide issues, and the new 25-Councillor one destroys representation.

That would require citizen engagement and a consultation process, not Ford just scribbling down what he feels like on a cocktail napkin.

 

[Allandale25]

My overall view is it is slightly Ainslie favored due to having such a geographically favorable ward to run in. However, I think DeBaeremaker has a decent chance. Ainslie can't win the current GDB area due to his anti- subway stance and generally GDB is able to get a lot more media attention than Ainslie so he could swap dissatisfied voters easily. Ainslie has never had a legitimate challenger so I have a feeling he is not as popular as people think.

Interesting analysis, thanks for sharing. If the 30% design number for the Scarborough Subway Extension (SSE) leaks out (and I realize it's a big "if" but reporters are trying), would that give any of those GDB pro-subway voters any second thoughts? Or has he done such a good job convincing these folks they "deserve" a subway (even if they won't use it and are car drivers) that nothing will change their minds? In other words, would any of them be open to Ainslie's message that a more cost effective alternative to the SSE is the better choice and he's that champion?

 

[christiesplits]

Who has the advantage in the Bailao vs Palacio race? A lot of left wing councillors like Joe Cressy are throwing their support for Bailao, and I imagine Progress Toronto and the labour unions will too. However, it looks like Palacio has the home advantage as more of his old ward is in the new riding than Bailao's old ward.

Palacio has thwarted a lot of strong contenders in the past, so I wouldn't put it past him winning by a nose again.