[steveintoronto]

And Peter Kent is one of the journalists, long before he became a CPC hack.

Many of the comments are very revealing. Audrey McLaughlin especially should be pilloried today for her claims back then. "400,000 jobs lost due to Nafta". I'm a Centrist, and any and all parties are worthy of praise and derision, depending on what they say and do, but the comments from all the candidates at that time, some far more than others, were astoundingly off the mark in retrospect. Chretien's claim that (gist) "The US is bound by the agreement to reopen negotiations on Nafta" is prophetic. And correct btw! The US has tried on at least two occasions, it's been Canada intransigent on complying, not the US.

I sent the portion of McLaughlin's comments to some NDP party hacks I know. No response so far...And Preston Manning was actually sensible and measured. Too bad the Cons buried him when they had their 'Grand Synthesis'. I'm still working my way through that vid, it's long, and have yet to find Bouchard's 'blow up' with Kim Campbell. Hopefully it's in there. It was a high-point.

 

[King of Kensington]

And Peter Kent is one of the journalists, long before he became a CPC hack.

Kent actually did a very good piece on global warming in the mid-1980s. I was actually surprised when he emerged as a Tory.

I knew his late sister a bit. She was a person of the Left and involved with the Waffle movement of the NDP.

 

[King of Kensington]

Who knows, maybe it'll just be Nathalie De Rossiers and Eric Hoskins left standing.

 

[narduch]

Landslides do happen.

But I still think there has to be 15-20 ridings that are Liberal safe no matter what.

 

[steveintoronto]

Who knows, maybe it'll just be Nathalie De Rossiers and Eric Hoskins left standing.

Even though I've been adamant that all the Cabinet is now toxic, if I take a step back, I agree, those two would be the "fresh face" the Libs need. There may be a couple more in the Cab. Hoskins is highly qualified, albeit he's had a real rough ride with his portfolio, through no fault of his own. All provincial health mins have it rough, no matter who it is or how they handle it, the aging demographic alone dictates a virtually impossible task to make ends meet.

Come to think of it, Hoskins could play that to his advantage.

Landslides do happen.

But I still think there has to be 15-20 ridings that are Liberal safe no matter what.

I agree. Taken into consideration that the vast majority aren't voting for anyone, but against the present status-quo, the odds would state that a sizable minority couldn't hold their noses to commit regicide.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

Even though I've been adamant that all the Cabinet is now toxic, if I take a step back, I agree, those two would be the "fresh face" the Libs need. There may be a couple more in the Cab. Hoskins is highly qualified, albeit he's had a real rough ride with his portfolio, through no fault of his own.

I disagree.

Hoskins has proven to be a big part of this toxic, awful Liberal government. As an Ontario resident who has voted Liberal for a majority of my adult life, I would feel very discouraged if Hoskins became the "fresh face" for the provincial Grits. After 2018, if this current government falls to third party status, I think the best bet for the Liberals is putting in someone who has no ties to the party for the last 10+ years; an outsider is what the party needs. Hoskins has proven to be just a Wynne pawn who just blames past governments for current failures.

I'd love to feel good about voting Liberal again but until this party gets it's act in gear and does a hard reboot, I'll be supporting the alternative - the Ontario Tories. Politicians who seem to be set to run for the Liberal leadership (once Wynne is gone), such as Eric Hoskins and Steven Del Duca, are just part of the problem in Ontario and as far as I see it, they need to walk away.

Give me a great outsider without links to the current party and who has an actual solid plan for the province. Then I'll, much like many others, will feel good about voting Liberal again.

 

[King of Kensington]

The 85+ seats makes sense if they're actually at 47% in the City of Toronto, which I find hard to believe. They'd have to be getting well over 50% in Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

The 85+ seats makes sense if they're actually at 47% in the City of Toronto, which I find hard to believe. They'd have to be getting well over 50% in Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough.

I can see the Tories win seats in Etobicoke, North York and Scarborough but 85+ seats seems hard to believe. I can't even see 75+ seats but I think 65 to 69 seats is very possible.

 

[christiesplits]

In Toronto, the only ridings I'm 99% confident the Liberals will win are:

University Rosedale
Spadina Fort York
Toronto Centre
St. Paul's
Scarborough Centre

Most likely:

Scarborough Guildwood
Scarborough Rouge Park
Etobicoke North (unless DoFo runs)

 

[King of Kensington]

In Toronto, the only ridings I'm 99% confident the Liberals will win are:

University Rosedale
Spadina Fort York
Toronto Centre
St. Paul's
Scarborough Centre

Agree that the first four are safe for the Libs, wouldn't include Scarborough Centre though. The Conservatives were able to take it federally in 2011 after all. Plus the PCs seem to have made inroads in Scarborough.

 

[christiesplits]

Agree that the first four are safe for the Libs, wouldn't include Scarborough Centre though. The Conservatives were able to take it federally in 2011 after all. Plus the PCs seem to have made inroads in Scarborough.

Agreed. There could be a number of three-way races in Scarborough, which is quite a rarity in Toronto. Horwath's 'bread and butter' populism could appeal to Scarborough, while hurting the traditional NDP base in the old city limits. The NDP will be very competitive in Davenport and Beaches East York - they lost both by a nose in 2014 - but I feel like any major NDP growth in Toronto will be in the inner burbs. Layton had some success in the 2011 election with two seats in Scarborough and a seat in Weston.

 

[SJD_Toronto]

The NDP will be very competitive in Davenport and Beaches East York - they lost both by a nose in 2014 - but I feel like any major NDP growth in Toronto will be in the inner burbs. Layton had some success in the 2011 election with two seats in Scarborough and a seat in Weston.

I expect Davenport and Beaches-East York will go back to the NDP tent. I was surprised those ridings went Liberal in the last election but I have a feeling many of these new Toronto Liberal MPPs are doomed to be one-termers. Same with Spadina-Fort York; I don't see Han Dong getting re-elected and I think that riding will be won by the NDP. It wouldn't shock me if Etobicoke MPPs Peter Milczyn and Yvan Baker end up as one-termers.

 

[christiesplits]

I expect Davenport and Beaches-East York will go back to the NDP tent. I was surprised those ridings went Liberal in the last election but I have a feeling many of these new Toronto Liberal MPPs are doomed to be one-termers. Same with Spadina-Fort York; I don't see Han Dong getting re-elected and I think that riding will be won by the NDP. It wouldn't shock me if Etobicoke MPPs Peter Milczyn and Yvan Baker end up as one-termers.

I think Han Dong is safe. I imagine he'll run in the new Spadina-Fort York riding, which I reckon is a somewhat safer riding than University-Rosedale.

One area where I think you'll continue to see NDP prospects slide, and possibly see the PC gain support, is downtown. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex or Cityplace who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality.

Despite this, I think the influx of young suburbanites to downtown, and a growing cluster of professionals in the condo corridors, could see some growth for the PCs over time. Downtown Vancouver, for instance, has surprisingly high CPC support.

 

[King of Kensington]

I think Han Dong is safe. I imagine he'll run in the new Spadina-Fort York riding, which I reckon is a somewhat safer riding than University-Rosedale.

One area where I think you'll continue to see NDP prospects slide, and possibly see the PC gain support, is downtown. The modern Liberal Party of Trudeau and Wynne speak the language of the upper-middle class, creative, and bourgeois-lefty types. The type of voter in the Annex or Cityplace who supports issues like public transit and carbon caps, but whose eyes glaze over when the NDP talk about P3s or income inequality.

Han Dong has been nominated for Spadina-Fort York.

I think you're giving Andrea Horwath's ONDP too much credit for being "serious" leftists. As if her sticking to "left principles" is driving upper middle class progressives away. The NDP in fact tacked to the right of the Liberals on several issues in the last election and was tone deaf to the concerns of the city. So given the choice of two center-left parties, why not vote for the more Toronto-friendly party?

 

[christiesplits]

Han Dong has been nominated for Spadina-Fort York.

I think you're giving Andrea Horwath's ONDP too much credit for being "serious" leftists. As if her sticking to "left principles" is driving upper middle class progressives away. The NDP in fact tacked to the right of the Liberals on several issues in the last election and was tone deaf to the concerns of the city. So given the choice of two center-left parties, why not vote for the more Toronto-friendly party?

I agree that the 2014 NDP platform was very unfriendly towards Toronto. Hell, they lost huge high profile MPs like Michael Prue and Rosario Marchese. With that being said, I don't think that Horwath's folksy populism in 2014 was necessarily misplaced. The party saw an opening in the SW Ontario rust belt and inner-suburbs of York and Scarborough. In York West, a Dipper dead zone that includes Jane and Finch, the NDP candidate came within 1000 votes of winning. People forget that in 2014 the NDP's popular vote across the province actually went up. A disappointing result? Sure. But far from the wipe-out that hit Mulcair a year later.

I think in 2018 the Ontario NDP should retain the populist narrative, but with more leftist policy planks like keeping hydro public and making childcare more affordable. More Bernie, less RoFo.